Mar 25, 2015

ColonelCassad: Kolomoisky’s Over

Crimean blogger ColonelCassad claims 1. Kolomoisky’s standoff with Kiev is largely over and Kiev has marginally strengthened its slipping grip over the country. The attack on the Dnepropetrovsk fiefdom happens with the approval of the US, which explains Kolomoisky’s swift capitulation.

All this comes to show how Ukraine’s political landscape can be changed at a whim and how far is your ordinary man on the street from controlling his own destiny, given the country leaders can’t control theirs.

It is wrong to expect a “Plan B” from Kolomoisky. He and his deputy Korban have ceded all the capabilities they had as government officials. His men around the regions are being sacked. The armed units he controlled are expected to get under the control of Avakov (Interior Ministry) Nalivaychenko (SBU) and Poroshenko. In this scheme Kolomoisky remains a rich and influential man; however, he won’t have the option of opposing Poroshenko with force.
We are yet to see if Kolomoisky will retain his lucrative participation in state-owned assets under the terms of his capitulation. It is possible he may be let keep “Ukrnafta” control in exchange of transferring his troops to different owners. Ukrainian politics, however suggest, that Kolomoisky will probably be bled dry and reminded of all his sins, given he has made a lot of enemies during his career. The “Privat” group will hardly be broken down, but its influence will be limited, making Kolomoisky just another oligarch without ambitions. He has lost the main battle.
This development will obviously strengthen Poroshenko’s power, however, only in a limited manner. Avakov, Yatseniuk and Nalivaychenko are only situational allies of the president, thanks to Washington’s “good will”. Therefore the absence of any real insurrection, new maidans and marches on Kiev – this would be a direct challenge to Washington. Which would have been funny, given most assets of Kolomoisky are in the West. He, of course, may be mad, but not to such an extent.
The strengthening of Kiev’s power will mean a better level of manageability of the processes in the South-East, obedient gauleiters will follow the Junta’s line. The gray business in the area will be taken over by the new masters (especially the semi- or fully illegal coal smuggling schemes). The counter-insurgency units will have to obey the Internal Ministry and SBU with a better operative subordination. The General Staff will not be under the heavy media pressure Kolomoisky unleashed against it. His former associates will change sides and join the victorious party. If he doesn’t get completely destroyed, Kolomoisky may retain some influence through paid MPs, but this will be just another lobbyist group, not a tool to gain real power

Kolomoisky’s downfall and battalion centralization under Kiev’s command will affect Novorossia in the following way. It will be impossible to blame Kolomoisky and his men for the coming new round of active hostilities. “Partner Petro” will be fully responsible. On the other hand the centralization of governance in the Ukraine will help the junta achieve its mobilization objectives. Little has changed for Novorossia, its future, as before, depends on the outcome of the military standoff with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Kolomoisky’s deserves no pity. Together with Turchinov and Poroshenko, he is among those with the most blood on their hands. He did a lot to push the country onto one of the bloodiest paths. The war turned especially violent thanks to Kolomoisky’s actions which lead to the Odessa tragedy, where all bridges were burned. I (ColonelCassad) hope justice will be served upon him sooner or later, as well as to the other leaders of the coup d’état which resulted in the civil war.