Jul 1, 2015

What does Vladimir Putin’s 89% rating really mean?

by the Saker

The Washington Post appears to be completely dumbfounded by Putin’s latest approval ratings:

Think Russians are tiring of conflict with the West? Not according to President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings, which hit all-time highs of 89 percent Wednesday (…) Putin’s ratings jumped from 65 percent in January 2014 to 80 percent two months later, and they’ve stayed in the 80s ever since, according to measurements from the Moscow-based Levada Center, the only independent polling organization in Russia. They’ve kept going up: In Putin’s 15 years in office, they’ve never been higher than June’s 89 percent (…) The 89 percent approval rating is also a testimony to the near-unanimity of views about Russia’s current direction.

The WaPo is correct: the Russian people do fully support Putin, especially if you consider that the 11% which are not happy with him are largely composed of Communists who blame Putin for being too sympathetic to capitalist market economy practices, nationalists who think that the Kremlin is too soft or indecisive about supporting Novorussia against the Ukronazis and maybe 1-3% (max!) who generally support the USA & EU. So in terms of the current confrontation with the AngloZionist Empire the real approval rating of Putin would be in the 97-98% range.

What does this mean?

1) There is no such thing as a “Putin” or even a “Kremlin” policy/stance on the Ukraine. There is a Russian stance on the Ukraine.

2) The sanctions have had the exact opposite effect from the one hoped for: instead of triggering a wave of discontent against Putin, the Russians have rallied around him.

3) The AngloZionist “message” has absolutely zero traction in Russia. The West has no credibility left, no appeal, no moral or political authority. Most Russians view the USA as a dangerous foe trying to subjugate Russia and they view the EU as a voiceless subservient colony of the USA.

4) The Russian will not “blink”. As I have been repeating it on this blog over and over again – Russians do not want war, but they are ready for it. The country is fully mobilized, both psychologically and materially. No amount of threats or sanctions will change this.

5) Putin’s power base is stronger than ever before. Not only are the Russian people fully supporting Putin, but the anti-Putin pro-USA “liberals” and “democrats” (in the Russian meaning of these words) are in complete disarray and on the run (mostly politically, but sometimes literally).

6) It is becoming increasingly clear that while the Russian economy has suffered from the sanctions and, even more so, from the drop in energy prices, it has fared much better than expected (including by the Kremlin) and that the planned “isolation” of Russia is an abject failure.

7) Most indicators seem to point to the same conclusion: the Ukronazi regime is at a breaking point: the purges have begun, the number of defectors is rising, the regime is making truly crazy decision (Saakashvili in Odessa), Goldman Sachs predicts an official default for the 24th of July (unofficially the Ukraine is already in a default situation).

VVPIn other words, while Russia is now stronger than at any time during this conflict, the Ukraine is weaker than at any time before. The US has no workable plan left. The Empire has failed to draw Russia into a war with the Ukraine, the Ukrainian have failed to crush the Donbass and political cracks are all over the EU. And while all the saber-rattling along the Russian border have angered the Russian people, it has completely failed to impress, nevermind scare, them. It appears that Putin holds Obama by the balls.

So what is next?

Well, for one thing that now depends on the USA. Russia can hold this position for as long as needed. In contrast, the EU is suffering economically and, even more so, politically. Should the Greek people rise against the AngloZionist plutocracy and reject their ultimatum the resulting political crisis will make the EU even weaker. Moldova and Romania have shown no signs that they are willing to directly confront Russia over Transnistria, and that is also very good news. I suspect that some clear warnings were given to the West about that by Russia (including a reminder of what happened the last time Russian peacekeepers were attacked). The longer the USA sticks to a failed Ukrainian policy, the worse the tensions inside the EU will become.

Minsk-2 is dead and the Ukronazis have clearly given up on the Donbass: they are shelling it daily, they have cut off all the supply lines (including for water and medicines), they have not resumed the payment of pensions (in clear violation of the terms of M2A) and their political rhetoric is even more hostile and bellicose than before.

Still, there is no way the western elites can accept that. They have invested their full political capital and credibility into their completely failed policy and now to admit that would entail an terminal loss of face. So just like the Ukronazi junta in Kiev, I expect the western leaders will be all bark but no bite, lest the Russian bear bite back.