“Operation Cyclone: Ukraine Edition” – is this the real plan?
Gavin O’Reilly
Will far-right Ukrainian militias play the same role as the mujahedeen did in Afghanistan?
For almost three months, the Western mainstream media, in a move not dissimilar to its previous assertions that Saddam Hussein had the capability to launch WMDs within 45 minutes, or that Iran was building a nuclear bomb, has repeatedly claimed that Russia is planning an ‘imminent’ invasion of its Western neighbour Ukraine.
Ukraine has been under the rule of the successive US-EU friendly governments of Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky since the 2014 Euromaidan, a CIA and MI6-orchestrated regime change operation launched in response to then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s November 2013 decision to suspend an EU trade deal in favour of pursuing closer ties with the Russian Federation.
With the ongoing collapse of the global COVID-19 media narrative following the highly coincidental timing of last month’s World Economic Forum Davos Agenda virtual event, a hypothetical Russian invasion of Ukraine has now taken centre stage amongst corporate media outlets with a track record of promoting war and regime change in countries refusing to kowtow to the demands of the US-NATO hegemony.
A media narrative which has seen thousands of US and British troops being deployed to Eastern Europe as a result – a highly provocative action and one, that should even a minor miscalculation occur amidst the current tensions, could easily escalate into a full-blown military conflict between East and West.
Recent comments by current Ukrainian President Zelensky however, in which he poured cold water over the idea of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the recent supply of over 90 tonnes of weaponry to Kiev by the United States amidst the current tensions, and US President Joe Biden stating himself that Washington would not engage militarily with Russia, would suggest that although the possibility of the current crisis inadvertently spiralling into a global conflict between Russia and NATO remains, that that is not the current intention of the West.
Rather, a plan seemingly exists to provoke Russia into intervening in the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine to protect the predominantly ethnic Russian inhabitants of the breakaway Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, before drawing Moscow into a wider guerrilla conflict in the rest of Ukraine, the second-largest country in Europe, with the intentions of tying Russia down for the foreseeable future in an Iraq-style military quagmire.
A tactic with previous historical usage against the Kremlin.
In 1978, at the height of the Cold War, both East and West were locked in a battle to prevent their opposing ideologies of Socialism and Free Market Capitalism taking hold in their respective spheres of influence.
With previously Western-friendly Afghanistan having come under control of the pro-Soviet PDPA (People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan) following that year’s Saur Revolution, a plan was quickly hatched by the White House and Downing Street to destabilise the newly-established Left-wing state.
From 1979 until 1989, the CIA’s Operation Cyclone would see the arming, funding and training of Islamist militants known as the Mujahideen, including none other than Osama Bin Laden.
These fighters, adhering to the ultraconservative Saudi Arabia-backed Wahhabi ideology, were trained neighbouring Pakistan, before being sent to wage war on the ‘atheist Communists’ of Afghanistan and their Soviet allies – with Moscow having intervened at the outset of the conflict following an official request for assistance from Kabul.
This decade long intervention by Moscow however, would ultimately fail to shore up their client state, the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, with Kabul’s Socialist government lasting a mere three years following the Soviet withdrawal before a civil war would see it replaced by the religious fundamentalist Islamic State of Afghanistan in 1992. A government which would itself be overthrown by the Taliban four years later.
The ten-year-long Soviet effort is also widely seen as a contributing factor to the Bloc’s subsequent breakup in 1991.
Indeed, Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser to then-US President Jimmy Carter when Operation Cyclone was launched in 1979 and instrumental in its implementation, would later recount in a 1998 interview about how drawing the USSR into a Vietnam-style quagmire in order to drain its resources was a motivating factor.
With Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu recently outlining a plot to stage a Syria-style false flag chemical attack in eastern Ukraine, as well as media reports of the CIA training Ukrainian guerrilla fighters, drawing Russia into a costly military conflict is seemingly a motivating factor of the regime change lobby yet again.
Gavin O’Reilly is an Irish Republican activist from Dublin, Ireland, with a strong interest in the effects of British and US Imperialism; he was a writer for the American Herald Tribune from January 2018 up until their seizure by the FBI in 2021, with his work also appearing on The Duran, Al-Masdar, MintPress News, Global Research and SouthFront. He can be reached through Twitter and Facebook.
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https://youtu.be/FAVBSUwmyLE
Drastic photos of Polish children, women and old people murdered in Volhynia (now Ukraine) by Ukrainian nationalists from the Second World War. Maybe it’s time for people to know the history of the nationalist movement that is cultivated in Ukraine today.
Any new news Gavin?
seems things really hotting up
For further takes on the whole fustercluck that our ‘leaders’ seem to have for US …
Will Washington Launch a Mass-Casualty “False Flag” to Sabotage Nord Stream?
The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It’s About Germany
The Only Way to Understand the Ukrainian Crisis Is by Placing Jewish Supremacist Power at the Front and Center of the Discussion
Many thanks, Mr O’Reilly, for an excellent analysis!
This is all about the money; it’s always about the money, and the power to determine who gets it and who keeps it.
https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2022/02/16/the-reason-the-us-wants-war-in-ukraine-is-ultimately-all-about-the-dollar
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/02/jacob-hornberger/the-evil-and-malevolence-of-the-pentagons-brilliant-strategy-in-ukraine/
If “Ukraine” should launch a massive attack against the breakaway eastern republics, Putin need not be drawn into an occupation of the entire “country” which is the last thing he wishes to do. He could simply use his advanced military technology to knock out any Ukrainian air power assisting the invasion as well as knock out any artillery or missile strikes originating on either side of the current cease fire line. He could also knock out any armor invading the republics. All done from Russian territory with no Russian boots on the ground. Without these advantages, the republics’ militias should be adequate to handily repel any invasion.
I see the primary motivations for this tempest in a teapot as follows:
Kill the Nordstream 2 gas line from going on-line with a probability of cutting off all Russian gas supplies to Europe. With the fighting going active, Russia would probably shut down all gas transit still going through Ukraine.
Prohibit Russian use of the SWIFT banking transactions.
Break the growing economic ties between Russia and Europe with Germany particularly in mind.
Double the current absurd price of oil and natural gas in the West. In order to “build back better” the Davos crowd must first destroy western economies and finish off destroying the middle classes which the flagging scandemic has already done to a considerable degree. One should also realize that the major Wall Street banks have huge investments in shale oil and gas which had been losing value up until the recent giant price increases. (Another primary purpose of the “shale revolution” is to poison the aquifers in the USA and thus aid depopulation and illness.)
Western economies are in the final stages of collapse in their debt based financial system. While the 2008 GFC operation announced the actual demise of the system, it has been propped up by huge debt creation of the central banks with the Fed as the leader, which is still pumping in well over a hundred billion dollars a month (on their public books). This does not include their private, off-balance sheet books and their trillion dollar reverse repo operation. When our Overlords feel that this operation is complete, they will discontinue this pump operation which will result in a flash crash of the debt (bond) market, marked by very large and continuous daily increase in the US Treasury’s 10 year note yield, as well as its derivative stock market collapse. The fake wealth will not go to money heaven, but rather to the 0.001% who will have shorted everything and will buy up everything for pennies on the dollar. It will result in the deaths of tens of millions within months. We are now in a crack-up boom which requires increasing debt creation to grow exponentially. With the narrow defeat of Brandon’s “build back better” bill in the Senate, a giant arms race “emergency” is a wonderful way to get the Fed to issue more funny money to the feral government and delay the collapse (for the moment).
Russia has signed yet another major fuel deal with China, to start in a few years. So, it is not dependent on selling to Europe.
On the NATO side, the plan seems to be a US one to maintain hegemony in Europe while destabilising and balkanising Russia through colour revolutions in neighbouring countries and in republics within the Russian Federation. This failed in Chechnya and Georgia, and more recently in Belrus and Kazakhstan, but partly succeeded in the Ukraine, even if the main prize, Crimea (and thus Sebastopol), was snatched from the jaws of US victory by decisive, if belated, action by the Kremlin and the Russian military – with thanks also to the vast majority of Crimean citizens, who made their feelings known in no uncertain fashion.
Among the main current issues are the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline, vital for Germany but anathema to the US, and continuing US control of international financial transactions. If Russia can be goaded into military action in the Ukraine, Nordstream and Western trade with Russia are finished.
On the Russian side, the aim is crystal clear: to keep US/NATO military bases and nuclear missiles away from its borders, and to create friendlier relations with Europe. The Russians have been disarmingly frank about this, but – as Putin and Lavrov keep complaining – no one listens to them, or (to be more exact, in my opinion) Western governments, with the US leading the way, pretend not to have heard and prefer whipping up the smokescreen of anti-Russian media hysteria to keep their plan limping along. Here in France the mainstream media is currently shrieking blue murder about the evil dictator Putin and his schemes for invasion.
My own opinion is that Russia has no intention of invading the Ukraine. Putin’s essay in which he said that Ukrainians and Russians were a common people has been portrayed by NATO propaganda as meaning he wants to restore the Russian Empire; in my view, however, what he meant was that it would be a tragedy for the two countries to go to war with each other. Only rabid Russophobes would disagree, but there are a lot of them in high places, and mistakes can happen. Russia should (hopefully) keep its cool, but will the Ukrainians end up being hoodwinked into attacking the Donbass and becoming sacrifical victims for NATO? I’m crossing my fingers they won’t.
My understanding is that without support from the petro-dollar (and drugs cartels) the US dollar will collapse. Far too many bills have been printed for the level of legitimate transactions.
Both Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi were attempting to free their nations from the Yankee Dollar. (Of course, Johnson is a genuine Yankee, born in NYC, loyal nephew of Uncle Sam.)
The psychos who run America are nothing more than a pestilence of toxic global filth. They are a danger to us all. The NATO cabal is long past its sell by date.
Perhaps “Operation Zyklon” might be more appropriate considering how our new best Ukrainian friends count among their number many who espouse the Nazi cause, as indeed did their grandfathers. The article is quite right; the idea is to place Russia in a situation from which it cannot escape. Knowing that, it is highly unlikely Russian leaders will take the bait. The real hope for the West is that a massacre of civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk or the killing of Russian civilians in cross-border fire would be a trigger. My father fought in a war eighty years ago along with millions of others to rid the world of the people Biden et. al. are now supporting and inviting us to believe are our friends.
Growing up I met a few of the grandsons (including some Balts), all immensely proud of SS Grandad. “He wasn’t fighting you Brits, you understand, just the commies.” But always in the SS.
I think the Ukrainians must have seen the Germans as rescuing them from the genocidal Bolsheviks in the war. After the Holodomor , I might have done so too.
History repeats….
“On the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic alone, more than 130 mass graves of the victims of the Ukrainian aggression were found and opened,” he said. “They are mass graves of civilians that were killed during operations by Ukraine’s armed forces in the DPR in Snezhnoye, Debaltsevo, Khartsyzsk and Ilovaisk.”
The head of the DPR said most of the dead were people aged 30 to 60 years. “Among the bodies that were retrieved were the bodies of elderly people, women and children,” he said. “People were buried in civilian clothes that they wore at the time of death – so we are talking about civilians.”
Most of the people, whose cause of death could be established, were killed by gunshots, mine explosions and shrapnel wounds, as well as by skull injuries caused by blunt objects, Pushilin said. He said authorities started a criminal probe into these facts.https://tass.com/world/1401797
Can Starmer find a way of saying that Johnson’s faux Churchillian response doesn’t go far enough? Oh yes…
https://dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/20/will-the-tories-hand-back-russian-cash-as-putin-threatens-war
“The Kremlin’s tendrills” is pure NLP 101. 101 is itself masonic with the 11th degree marking where a freemason stops being an apprentice (zeroes don’t count in their numerology).
Anyway, it’s a useful reminder of the how fake the two-party system is. I’m sure having now discovered the evils of foreign financial penetration of the UK, Starmer will apply that across the board, won’t he?….
NATO’s promise not to spread eastwards when the Warsaw Pact was dissolved is flushed down the memory hole and round the U-bend by the corporate-state media.
They’re going for the Hitler thing big style now:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60448162
“Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 – Boris Johnson”
I’m guessing that the covid con is collapsing faster than they can handle. An obvious answer is World War 3.
Build back better bojo using the Churchill motif.
You would think, post Covid, that people would have enough of hype. We will see.
Oh I think the people have indeed had enough of the hype. But the media hasn’t. And never will!
https://www.rt.com/news/549997-intelligence-russia-china-interview/
according to the link, MI5, Ken McCallum, advised MPs to beware of China and Russia’s “interference alerts,” In McCallum words “The scale of these adversaries’ activities is so grand that MI5 faces a tough choice over whom to prioritize: home-grown terrorists or foreign spies, McCallum confessed. “..we are in a struggle .. need to stand up for our values, for our system, for the benefits of the democratic way of life that we, and our allies, hold dear,”
What? Home grown terrorist? Who would home grown terrorist, terrorize?
What is the subject and cause of this struggle between UK and Russia? Is it over the oil and gas that Russia supplies to Europe and Asia? Is it that Russia has better looking girls than British Girls? Is it that Russia has military capacity? It is that Russia’s refuses to allow itself to be set up to be destroyed by NATO? Is it that Russia has found a way to avoid dealing in the Western financial markets. Is it that Russia is joining with China in the one road project? Is it that Russia interfered with Israel’s attempt to take over Syria? Please, what is the struggle with Russia over? Who among the governed cares?
How is “grand scale” defined? ..Is it that citizens of the western nation states listen to Russian voices in search of finding some Truth in British propaganda? No one has explained this terrible bad Russia? I hear Russia did this or that without permission? Whose permission is required and why was it denied?
What is a home grown terrorist? If the statements in the link are true, they suggest citizens who do not both live according to M15 dictates, and blind faith accept, what authorities and propaganda tell Citizens, M15 will brand its Citizens domestic terrorist? Some how such threats do not fit the idea of life, liberty, freedom of thought, freedom of speech, open democracy.. and live and let live ideals? It took human civilizations thousands of years to establish their rights against “take-all” authoritarian governments. Apparently, the nation states intend to use the digital platform and crowd control weapons (traffic signal cameras, 5g attached to every lamp post and IoT inside of every home) to take back this idea that citizens in today’s; world are free to choose which nation they wish to be citizens of; or to decide for themselves, which propaganda they choose to adopt into their belief system.?
All nation states are armed and dangerous, oligarch controlled, monopoly creating, terrorist organizations. The people governed by one of the 256 nation states. are victims. The governed have been molded by law, language, culture, custom and M15, into cannon fodder and made available to assist the Oligarch in accomplishing his conspiracies. because Nation states are often led by barrel-bottom humanoids; the statements made may indicate trouble ahead.
Covid has been a extremely difficult time for criminals and terrorists.
Mi5 must of been tracking all those’s home grown terrorist who tried to go to work or forgot to wear masks and staged rescue missions into seeing their familys especially during the rule of 6 period.
Muslim terrorist wearing burkas and normal folks wearing masks made it difficult to track home grown terrorist hating our way of life and trying to take away our freedoms in the west,
+1
Whenever new normies I know / am related to, bring up the “Ukraine crisis”,
I say
“the Ukraine is to Russia, as Canada is to the USA.
Don’t you think that what’s happening in Canada is more crucial?”
I get a reply like
“wait, what?
What’s happening in Canada?”
Davos & WEF is the problem, not Russia.
Davos & WEF is the 2020 scapegoat.
If The Ukraine is a distraction, let’s not be too distracted !
Police in Victoria Australia visited participants, post-demo, to let them know they learned of the participation via phone location data…
Police in Canada are supplying banks with donation data of those who contributed to the truckers protest. Home visits can also be expected…
Journalists have written about The Chilling Effect on their investigations that (warning) visits by police have had…
Thinking that participating in demonstrations against government policies can result in intimidating police visits and bank accounts being frozen< has A Chilling Effect.
By late 2019 some economists were certain there would be a 2020 Global Recession.
Using ‘covid’ as a cover story governments implemented policies that destroyed jobs and businesses, and put countries into massive debt making payments to the affected to head off the riots and social turmoil that would result from the governments economically destructive policies…
Some openly wondered if the indebtedness was done so that any (remaining) government assets could be flogged off to global corporations; so that to pay off The Debt all taxpayer funded social security payments could be reduced to the barest minimum, if not discontinued altogether… And if that wasnt enough, the nations housing stock would be handed over, to bring about ” You’ll own nothing, and be happy !”
In an Open Letter to Edward Dowd (one of those Masters of the Universe) Jon Rappoport asks some serious questions (so, is Ukraine a possible distraction ?):
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2022/02/18/open-letter-to-edward-dowd-the-financial-collapse
I used to think that countries like NZ, Australia and Canada were the sane places in this world.
With some of the most dumbed down people on earth one could find it’s hard to say they are sane places.
Wait! They are just providing”Lethal Aid” no biggy! It sounds like legal aid so its cool! Just the latest Newspeak…move along nothing to see here folks!
The diabolical americans expanded the religious schools system in Afghanistan from 200 madrassahs/schools to 2000 AND introduced a HORRIFIC curriculum for kids
“the United States had spent millions of dollars beginning in the 1980s to produce and disseminate anti-Soviet textbooks for Afghan schoolchildren.
…
Printed both in Pashto and Dari, Afghanistan’s two major languages, books such as “The Alphabet for Jihad Literacy” were produced under the auspices of the U.S. Agency for International Development by the University of Nebraska at Omaha and smuggled into Afghanistan through networks built by the CIA and Pakistan’s military intelligence agency, the ISI.”
These books taught maths using gory examples of the numbers of chopped off heads and other body parts.
The War on Terror ought to be against Washington’s Cabals. That is where the Real Terrorists reside.
Can you provide any links to these books?
https://www.slideshare.net/2sadanand/afghan-schoolbook-nebraska
The schools were in Pakistan. Heroin also flowed through it from Afghanistan. 2 failed states for the price of one. Whether Afghanistan improves or not, Pakistan is still festering in these and other problems.
Wait, Russia will invade any moment now, any minute, keep watching, any second…What if Putin doesn’t bite or take the bait? What if the CIA/MI6 launch a false flag op and Putin only facilitates evacuating residents or sends tactical support and special ops to Donetsk and Luhansk to protect those who want to leave?
Putin is not looking for a protracted war. The crazies in D.C. and London are actually talking about a “manageable war” as if such a thing is possible!? Russia is not Kosovo and Putin is no Dementia Joe Biden.
Even Biden has said the US will not send or engage troops in Ukraine. Aside from the possibility of unintended consequences this is mostly theater, to distract Joe and Jane Sixpack from Biden’s failures at home: the raging inflation, societal disintegration and disorder, COVID weariness, growing injection skepticism and corruption that is growing so fast it is hard for the media to keep it under wraps.
“In Solidarity with Ottawa from Surrey”
https://www.reddit.com/r/AHomeForPlagueRats/comments/swq4yp/surrey_england_we_are_with_you_ottawa/
“Nazi Boy and the Reich need to Fall, NOW!”‘
https://www.reddit.com/r/AHomeForPlagueRats/comments/swq1cc/trudeaus_on_borrowed_time/
Can anyone give me a link where I can follow all the Corona Investigative Committee sessions? (Reiner Fuellmich, et al)
Thanks
https://corona-ausschuss.de/
https://odysee.com/@OzFlor:7/Gj2:f
Thanks Halo & Martin!
“Quebec protest today”
“Ottawa tonight”
https://www.reddit.com/r/libertarianmeme/comments/swn4pi/ottawa_looking_extremely_violent/
“Vancouver tomorrow”
https://www.reddit.com/r/AHomeForPlagueRats/comments/swntao/veteran_led_freedom_march_from_vancouver_to/
“Medical Freedom Rally”
https://www.reddit.com/r/AHomeForPlagueRats/comments/swk6wv/pro_medical_freedom/
I am even more confused than before reading this article. Can someone just explain what is going on in plain simple language?
What is going on in Russia/Ukraine. Who benefits and how?
A defiant Zelenskiy promises Ukraine will defend itself ‘with or without’ allies
At Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian president chides Western powers for not doing more to protect his country and punish Russia.
February 19, 2022 10:39 pm
MUNICH — With his country under threat of imminent attack by Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy received a standing ovation at the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday — and then bit the hands that applauded him in a scathing speech that slammed Western allies for not doing enough to punish Moscow and move his nation toward the safety of Western integration.
Without naming names, Zelenskiy took jabs at Germany for hesitating to send weapons and offering helmets instead. He also threw shade at the United States for refusing to impose immediate sanctions on the Kremlin for threatening Ukraine, which is now nearly surrounded by more than 100,000 Russian troops and sophisticated weaponry.
“We are going to protect our country with or without the support of our partners,” Zelenskiy said, before referencing Germany’s donation of 5,000 helmets.
On sanctions, he asked: “What are you waiting for? We don’t need sanctions after bombardment happens, after we have no borders, no economy. Why would we need those sanctions then?”
….
https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskiy-ukraine-defiant-munich-security-conference-speech-russia-threat/
Jojo: You say, “the Kremlin [for] threatening Ukraine, which is now nearly surrounded by more than 100,000 Russian troops and sophisticated weaponry” Can you possibly explain how the Russians could be ‘surrounding’ Ukraine when they are merely practicing tactical manoeavers on their own borders? Surrounding Ukraine … please! Spreading bullsh..t is a tried and tested tactic of the CIA/MI6
I said nothing. The article said it. Complain to the writer.
😉 Apologies in order …
Jojo, can you not use the quote facility (7th icon from the left) to split what you say from what ‘they’ say?
As in
I believe that the proper use of the quote functionality is for direct quotes taken either from the article being commented on or what some other commenter has written.
When I post a snippet from an external article, I include the article title, the author(s) name, the date a few paragraphs, … indicating there is more available and the URL to the article. This should be more than enough to indicate it is not something I have written for if it were, why would I use the posting name of Jojo while the author’s name was different?
George, US is trying to pressure Kiev (Ukrainian govt) into attacking its two breakaway provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. Ethnicity in these two areas in overwhelmingly Russian.
US is trying to goad Russia into coming to military aid of these areas by having Kiev attack them.
Reason: If Russia reacts militarily, US will say, “Kiev didn’t attack the two Russian-ethnicity provinces. Russia always planned to invade Ukraine. They are claiming Kiev is attacking, but this is a false flag. It’s really just Russia preparing to invade Ukraine.”
Russia had scheduled & announced war games close to her border w Ukraine. US said Russia wd invade, but the day that US selected as “Invasion Day” was the day AFTER Russia scheduled the end of her war games. Hence Russia really did start to remove her soldiers to barracks on this day.
SOMEONE is committing aggression. Is it Kiev against the two provinces? Or is Russia only pretending this is occurring so she can invade?
Answer: It is noteworthy that Kiev’s forces are NOT at her border with Russia, as they wd be if she feared invasion. Instead they are lined up against the border with the 2 provinces.
Russia says Kiev will attack the two areas and she is therefore offering shelter & food to women, children & old people who cross the border into Russia. Map makes all clear:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/east-ukraine-shelling-russian-invasion-fears-putin-pretext-rcna16773
If Russia invades economic sanctions will occur & further econ cooperation between her & Europe will be stymied, especially the opening of Nordstream2 gas pipeline in Germany.
At Off-G article ‘Ukraine “Crisis” Views from Russia’ I have 3 comments at the very top of comments section.
Russia is least worried about ‘”sanctions”. Past sanctions have worked out for its good. You are comparing an independent nation (Russia) to one (USA) that is taking orders.
A good article from Andrei Martinov will give you a good insight. https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/02/olaf-scholz-came-in-handy.html
Ukranian shelling of Donbass and Lugansk has been going on since 2014. The last 5 days it stepped up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icgYDrUfpmQ
+1
“The Plague From Hell has not ended or even stopped the War Racket.”
https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket.pdf
“To Hell With War!”
Smedley Butler, First USMC General
Ask a US marine today who this is and they don’t know.
They are taught that a “Smedley” is a screw up.
History hidden in plain sight.
We should all be wise to these various tactics but reading the media and a lot of comments (and listening to general conversation) suggests that most people is the US and UK are following the Party Line. That’s a bit sad because unless the heat’s turned down the only way forward is chaos. I’m not sure whether Russia would be drawn into a gueralla war in Ukraine, they’re too smart to fall for this, but that line of thinking could be used to justify ‘asymmetrical’ attacks inside Russia.
As usual, the question we should all be asking ourselves is ‘who benefits?’. The answer seems to be a bit messy. There’s still a substantial school of thought that says that Russian needs payments for gas as much or more than Europe needs gas to fuel its industries and homes. I’ve seen this line taken by quite influential people but they don’t take into account the sanctions regime that has already driven Russia to a policy of disengagement with the west this reasoning doesn’t make any sense. The National Security cartels will benefit, obviously, but a combination of public apathy (try as I may I’m just not scared by Russia) and public indebtedness due to 20 years of overseas adventurism and domestic laissez faire have left us (certainly in the US) relatively weak economically. (Put simply, we don’t have the money for war unless we print even more of it or borrow it from someone. Here Russia and China have the edge on us — they’re rolling in it.) We’ve threatened to isolate Russia from SWIFT but all that will do is hasten the end of this organization as a the single service for interbank settlements. I just don’t see any way forward except to politely accede to Russia’s demands and let matters settle down. Or, of course, outright war.
I was in Romania some years ago, back before this whole Maidan business started. It was summer and there were a fair number of people visiting from Ukraine. The general feeling I had at the time was that the people might want to join the EU because it promised stability of international borders and freedom of movement by the population. (Stability of borders makes sense to Romania because of a history of the neighbors biting off bits of their territory.) This seemed like a satisfactory future — it might be some time before the country was capable of full EU membership but the idea was sound enough. Then along came Maidan, and then NATO, and along with NATO comes the urgent need to militarize the area. Still, I suppose it stops people from developing the Black Sea (its one large unexploited gas field — but don’t tell anyone….).
What about the quiet but very effective SCO? 9 countries are full members. Russia China Malaysia & 6 countries from the former Soviet Bloc. Its members account for approx half the world’s population, a quarter of the worlds GDP and 80% of Eurasia. A mini EU if you like. There are many countries that have applied for full membership one such being Israel. The SCO hasn’t agreed these requests. Fuck Biden. Sholz should approve Nordstream 2 switch on now and end this shitshow. The USA’s problems are not ours or the EU’s to resolve. Any intelligent politician would be keen to do business with China and Russia and show some autonomy. Unfortunately intelligence is sadly missing from our politicians. It’seems going to end very very badly for the UK and EU countries ando the USA.