Regarding the “Poroshenko vs. Kolomoiskiy” conflict shaking Ukraine to its core right now, Gleb Bazov, a prominent observer and commenter of the Ukraine crisis, voices his doubts on the US’s capacity to control the events taking place there:
… The key point I am trying to make is that, whatever the influence US has in Ukraine (and I think it’s clearly dominant), it is not US troops, politicians and strategists that fight in Ukraine—all the actors on the ground are Ukrainian, and US must exercise its influence through them. That is why I see a chink in the armour of American presumed omnipotence. Critically, all Kolomoiskiy has to do is hold out long enough for confidence in Kiev’s rule to be compromised. He does not need to win the war with Kiev; he only needs to start a fight and keep on his feet for a round and a half. That is Kolomoiskiy’s real blackmail—give me back the status quo, or I will throw you down into the wastebasket of history, together with your United Ukraine, and follow you there myself. …
On Benito Kolomoiskiy’s Gamble
The above excerpt is from Bazov’s response to an analysis of the current “oligarch war” by Colonel Cassad (also a prominent observer and commenter of the Ukraine crisis), in which Bazov explains “why I disagree with his ultimate conclusions, though not with most of the points he makes”, Cassad taking a very different view of the US power to influence events in Ukraine:
… The junta, which is controlled by the US and which is implementing Washington’s interests in the given region, as it is not hard to see, is not going to be sentimental in the questions of the monopoly on violence and views Kolomoisky’s convulsions quite calmly, because it has the most important thing – the US support. And therefore it has a carte-blanche of sorts for actions directed against Kolomoisky. So on the background of hysterical statements from Kolomoisky’s camp there are fairly cold threats and ultimatums sounded by people who can easily arrange a night of the long knives for the wacky stormtroopers and their owners.
The chief jew-banderovite either missed this moment for some reason or failed to influence this decision. In the end his current public activity appears like a belated attempt to play the losing game to a draw. But will Poroshenko be satisfied by such a draw? It will depend on the kind of instructions he received from the State Department and the CIA with respect to the reconfiguration of the Ukrainian political and oligarchical playing field. …
The two contrasting pieces make for some very enlightening reading, to be sure.
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