Iran has something to be proud of and something to celebrate: it preserved the right to develop its peaceful nuclear program, albeit under 10 years of control, including the production of their own fuel. In exchange, the West rolls back its sanctions imposed in the last few years, leaving those sanctions, which operated from the beginning of the revolution in 1979 – for human rights violations and other trifles. No one is surprised that the US police killed 100 people last month, but human rights are violated by Iran, that’s today’s logic.
Iran didn’t back down, did not give up its positions, managed to defend its right to nuclear energy – a rare example of unity between government and people in the modern world, who were able to undertake a task and complete it. Many of the self-described superpowers manage much less.
On the other hand, we should not delude ourselves much: the United States is not showing its “soft side” for nothing. They have their own plans and their own interests, where a strong Iran is a much better fit than a weakened and cornered one.
It seems that in the United States will now cautiously, but probe Saudi Arabia’s strength. No one is going to smite a former ally in one day. The point here is not about some soul-searching, but about pragmatic calculation. Problems in one of the largest exporters of oil can create such a cataclysm in the oil market, where all the nuances will be extremely difficult to predict. Accordingly, it will be difficult to react too.
However, the improvement of relations with Iran for the United States only means that they have decided to experiment. The clash of interests between Iran and Saudi Arabia is inevitable, and Yemen has proved very helpful in this regard. The sudden appearance on the horizon of the former President Saleh dramatically and irrevocably changed Yemen’s internal political landscape – and I will not be surprised at all if the US have somehow stimulated this Saleh’s activity.
Again, I need to make a reservation in advance: saying “the United States”, I mean only a part of the interest groups involved – those who are interested in the collapse of the Middle East region. Groups who are interested in continuing the relationship with Saudi Arabia and conservation of these relations is clearly not ready for this.
Roughly speaking, the first group comprises of lobbyists of US oil exports, who are counting on the elimination of their biggest competitor and establishing a politically weak and much more manageable “partner” in its stead. The second groups are lobbyists of American oil importers and, respectively, of interests of the Arab sheikhs who spend monstrous money to stimulate their lobby in America.
Judging by the way the agreement with Iran was pressed through the first lobby looks stronger today. They push the project in which Saudi Arabia will have to be subjected to severe stress, of which she will not be allowed to emerge in its previous form. It is not for nothing that the US, which otherwise acts as the plug in the barrel of all regional conflicts, emphasized that in Yemen they would distance them from the situation – you are alone in this, guys, deal with it somehow.
Within this logic, the US interest in Yemen is about the same as in Ukraine – it is necessary to prolong the conflict as much as possible to weaken Saudi Arabia and force it to “get stuck” in this futile war. Americans behave in exactly the same way in Ukraine, and their Russian agents in the Kremlin contribute to this strategy as much as possible, pouring blood on Donbass together with Poroshenko, dragging Russia into the war, where no sane outcome is visible. And both in Yemen and Ukraine the United States will slap any hands that dare to solve the problem quickly and decisively – so expect only “cunning plans”, only hardcore, only senseless and bloody war, thousands of deaths and chaos.
To do this there is no need to be present directly in the conflict – it is important to stand beside it and be responsive to any attempt to resolve it in an undesirable direction for the United States. So the US are not present – and the natives there cope very well themselves.