Apr 20, 2015

The Saker: US needs a state of crisis in Ukraine at all costs

[…] The single most important actor in the Ukrainian crisis are the USA which has far more influence than the EU or any local political force. And the fact is that the USA have everything to lose from a peaceful outcome of the Ukrainian civil war. Why? Simple!

The US powerbase in the Ukraine is composed of two very different groups: first, the Nazi ultra-nationalist freaks with very strong ties to the Ukie emigrants in Canada and the USA and, second, the corrupt oligarchs. Now here is the key factor here: neither of these two groups are a majority of the Ukrainian people, even if we exclude the Donbass. In fact, even when put together into one “pro-US 5th column” the Nazi freaks and Ukie oligarchs are still not a majority. This crucial fact translates into a very simple but crucial policy imperative: the USA cannot allow anything remotely “democratic” in the Ukraine: it is either “people power” or “US power”, but it will never be both. From that flows a 2nd very simple policy imperative: the US needs to maintain a state of crisis at all costs: war, civil war, industrial or ecological disaster, MH-17, unknown snipers, etc. Peace will sooner or later bring some form of people power which, in turn, will mean that the USA would lose control of the situation.

This is why whether the next crisis results from yet another military defeat or from food shortages and riots, the junta’s “solution” will be the same one: martial law. The Rada, in fact, just passed such a law allowing easy imposition of martial law.

Martial law as a way to save the current regime

The big advantage (for the USA) of the introduction of martial law in the Ukraine is that the two “pillars” of US power in the Ukraine (Nazi freaks and oligarchs) will most obviously the ones to declare and implement martial law, thus their power over the country will remain safely in their hands. Furthermore, martial law will allow the regime to viciously crack down and crush any opposition under minimal or even no legal constraints of any kind. Any person or group protesting or otherwise disagreeing with anything the junta does will be declared “agent of Putin” and dealt with by either imprisonment or simply executed.

The imposition of martial law will also be a financial bonanza for the oligarch which will use it to ruthlessly eliminate any opponents or anybody questioning their practices. […]

Read “Ukraine Analysis by the Saker: a “Croatian” attack scenario?” in full