Independent journalist: A chaotic war of all against all is the main danger in Ukraine

A scuffle in the Ukrainian Parliament. Photo Vladimir Strumkovsky / AP

Sergey Sakadynsky (pictured below), a social activist and independent journalist from Lugansk who now lives in Kiev, is interviewed by the Lugansk Information Center:

[…] How do you appraise the current political situation in Ukraine?

It just so happens that each new Ukrainian government claims more than the previous one. The activities of Yanukovich and his entourage, of course, were one of the reasons for the Maidan and all subsequent events. However, Yanukovich came to this after a few years. Poroshenko has managed to alienate his former supporters in just a year. Today, the country has no confidence in the current government and no one trusts those who claim to be the opposition. There is a serious political crisis even more profound than the one in 2013.

Could another parliamentary crisis lead to a reshuffling of authorities?

A reshuffle is inevitable, but it will not lead to a stabilization of the situation. Because a viable, third force has not appeared in the country. Against the background of falling ratings for the current ruling party, the ratings of the political forces which were removed from power before are growing. But, in fact, they’re all the same people, so re-elections will not fundamentally change anything.

How serious is the issue of ‘disgruntled armed men returning from the front?

Every third man is ready to take up arms and go to Kiev. In fact, there are no leaders who could win over the unsatisfied masses. However, if someone has a machine gun in the attic, he will sooner or later shoot it. The events in Mukachevo and the grenade outside of the Verkhovna Rada are direct proof.

Is the breakdown of the situation to the point of a chaotic war ‘of all against all’ possible?

This is the main danger. There are a huge number of military “orphans” in the country, who were removed from the front and are dissatisfied with the government. In addition, there are a lot of impostors under the branding of volunteer battalions. Getting a weapon is no problem. There is a temptation to use these troops in inner squabbles.

What is your forecast of the political situation?

Stabilization of the situation is impossible for the current composition of the Verkhovna Rada and government. Therefore, after local elections, there will inevitably be re-elections of people’s deputies and probably a president. If this doesn’t happen peacefully, then there will inevitably be another Maidan. And, as follows, there are two options: to disperse protestors with the cancellation of elections in general and the introduction of martial law, or a change of government by force. […]

Read in full Sakadynsky: “Things are worse in Ukraine than in the 1990’s” at Fort Russ

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