Is there a ban on [Br]exit polling today?

The official story is that the referendum taking place in the UK today will not have exit polls, which are banned.
As The Telegraph points out, however, YouGov is carrying out on-the-day polling and will release its results at 10:00 PM local British time. Here’s the explanation from The Telegraph:

Will there be an exit poll?

Technically, no. An exit poll is conducted on a large scale outside polling stations but broadcasters have no way of knowing how accurate an exit poll would be as the last result they have to compare it to is the 1974 referendum. However, pollsters YouGov will be running an on-the-day poll on June 23, the results of which will be announced at 10pm, once voting has closed. 

If you’re curious as to who YouGov is, here are the opening paragraphs of the Wikipedia entry on them:

YouGov is an international internet-based market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.[2]

YouGov was founded in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan Shakespeare and Nadhim Zahawi. In April 2005, YouGov became a public company listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange.[3]

Stephan Shakespeare has been YouGov’s Chief Executive Officer since 2010.[4] Roger Parry has been YouGov’s Chairman since 2007. [5] Political commentator Peter Kellner was YouGov’s President until he stepped down in 2016. [6]

YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council.[7]

For those too busy to use the links above, here’s the basic information on YouGov’s founder Stephen Shakespeare (real name Stephan Kukowski, born in Germany of a German father who was the press liaison officer for the British Army of the Rhine; Kukowski took his present surname on marrying Rosamund Shakespeare), again from Wikipedia:

In 2012, Shakespeare was appointed as Chairman of the Data Strategy Board (DSB), the advisory body that was set up by the government to maximise value of data for users across the UK.[1] In October 2012, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and Cabinet Office ministers announced that he would lead an independent review of Public Sector Information; the “Shakespeare Review: an Independent Review of Public Sector Information” was published in 2013.[2] He is currently a member of the Government’s Public Sector Transparency Board[3] and a trustee of the National Portrait Gallery, London.[4]

He is the former owner of the websites ConservativeHome (now owned by Lord Ashcroft) and PoliticsHome (now owned by Dods Parliamentary Communications Ltd) which he launched in April 2008 after closing down his Internet television channel 18 Doughty Street.

He was named one of the Top 20 Most Influential People in Politics in the Debrett’s 500 2015.[5]

With YouGov doing its on-the-day polling, it’s impossible to know where exactly they’re  doing their surveys, which of course makes this much harder to pin down than a genuine exit poll.
Instead of a properly run exit poll, on the day of the referendum which is to decide its political future, the UK public is being fed information from a survey carried out by a company founded by a German-born Conservative who sits on a number of government boards and whose company is conducting an in effect unofficial poll the details of which cannot be tracked.
Isn’t EU-style democracy a lovely thing indeed?


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Categories: Brexit, democracy, EU, latest, UK
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Daniel Rich
Daniel Rich
Jun 24, 2016 2:01 AM

Q: will not have exit polls.
R* What would those exit polls have told us? The answer is the reason why they weren’t there. Clinton goes to NY and becomes a senator. Rahm goes to Chicago and becomes a mayor. Remain loses and MP and wins the referendum. Move on folks, nothing out of the ordinary to see here…. Shoot!

Brad Benson
Brad Benson
Jun 23, 2016 10:44 PM

If they are taking no exit polls, the fix is in. The didn’t report the results here in the States whenever Bernie would lose a primary and the exit polls would show him having won by a wide margin. That’s how it works now in the age of fixed election. Brexit will have to win by such an amazing landslide that the results cannot be fixed without a public outcry.

Jun 23, 2016 8:57 PM

Below is a link to a systematic analysis on the democratic elections in the US where authors, amongst others, show (by using verifiable data) that there is a huge (unexplained) difference between paper and electronic votes. They also show an unexplained difference in exit polls vs. final results, favoring Clinton in which the chance of a random result is, according to the authors, 1 in 77 billion. I am not sure why this report has received so little media attention. The statistics which authors used seem correct to me (I know a little bit of statistics) and the authors performed all their analyses on available (though difficult to retrieve) data. Here is the report: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1 Here authors respond to some comments: http://caucus99percent.com/content/election-fraud-study-authors-respond-critics And to some other comments https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SdmBLFW9gISaqOyyz_fATgaFupI2-n6vWx80XRGUVBo/mobilebasic?pli=1 Perhaps I missed something and am reporting a hoax. If not, perhaps the article can be reviewed at offguardian? Inititially I found… Read more »

Jun 23, 2016 6:52 PM

Well, what more can you expect? Cameron’s pulled every dirty trick in the book and basically said everything but “Vote Brexit and you will die an immediate and horrible self-inflicted death”. Voodoo politics by Papa Doc Cameron.

Jun 23, 2016 6:48 PM

The biggest Vote Rig in history is underway !