Yes, there’s a snap election in the UK…
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Yes, we have noticed Theresa May has called an election for June 8. Yes, it’s highly possible the Tories will engineer a win, by legal, or less than legal means.
But…after Brexit and the bizarre Trump win we think making firm predictions about how any of this will go is a waste of time. Particularly at this stage.
The powers that be are seemingly locked in some form of labyrinthine internecine war. The political class in the US has pockets of genuine gold-plated insanity amongst its warring factions, and these truly mad people have fluctuating levels of influence on what we could term “policy” (if what is going on right now in the western hemisphere could be defined by anything so coherent). Anyone watching the various layers of propaganda coming out of the media and intelligence outlets during the US presidential campaign could, in hindsight, pinpoint the moment it looks as if some very powerful interests decided (for whatever reason) Clinton was a busted flush and switched to Trump as being (again for whatever reason) the new least bad option.
But, for all the speculation, we still don’t know much about why. Or even if the why, whatever it is, makes any sense on anyone’s terms. What the Saker says about the genuine collective insanity infesting elements of the western political class is something that probably should get more consideration. The image of cool-headed strategists weaving complex master plans may be less than accurate. Maybe a better mental image might be a bus hurtling towards a cliff edge, full of drunken psychopaths fighting for control of the wheel. The swerves and veers and u-turns you see are possibly not part of some grand strategy, just symptomatic of the frantic and self-defeating chaos that has become the new normal. Maybe there is no master plan at all beyond a scrawled hate message to the rest of the world and posterity.
In other words, it’s a time of flux and chaos and nothing can be safely predicted at the moment, about the UK election or anything else. Maybe the Tories will romp it. Or maybe there’ll be a “shock” victory for Labour, either engineered or actual. Maybe it’s all blind to hide Tory corruption. Or a bid to make Corbyn caretaker PM during a coming collapse. Or maybe it’s none of these things. Or was yesterday but isn’t any more. Maybe Trump will take out Pyongyang before anything has a chance to happen. Or maybe a super uber terrorist attack will force the US and Europe to declare martial law and suspend “democracy.”
Currently no one knows what will happen next. Not any of us. Which is why we are not publishing predictive commentary on this right now. Let’s wait and see what the fake news/Guardian editorials/false flags and utter lies seem to be pointing us toward in the next few weeks.
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“The image of cool-headed strategists weaving complex master plans may be less than accurate.”
I’m more an adept of the Blundering Incompetence school of thought myself, as opposed to the It’s All A Plot one. At the same time, the US intelligence services do seem to be out of control, and the MSM consensus in the West is puzzling (a lot like Hate Week and MiniTrue finally come to pass, as someone pointed out here a few days ago) – which is why I read the Off-Graun while we’re still allowed to. Do all these journalists and pundits actually believe their own BS or do they know they’re lying?
Trump’s ineffectual bombing of the Syrian airfield seems to be a good example of (apparently) blundering incompetence, as several commentators have already explained on this website. If that’s the case, Americans should be worried about their real military capacity. If it was just a show, what was the hidden point?
The first round of the French presidential elections is being held as I type this. Today’s results should give some pointers of the voters’ mood alikely to apply in the UK in June – can the EU be left or is it Hotel California (“you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave”)?
More questions than answers – as one of my Syrian friends said recently, “We’d just like to know what’s really going on.” And as a French proverb says (loose translation): “Since events are beyond our understanding, let’s pretend we’re their organisers.”
At the height of his fame, David Bowie cut up phrases and keywords from magazines – then picked them in random order to form lyrics (I’m an alligator, I’m a mama papa coming for you, I’m a space invader…) This was a form of the Surrealist parlour game of cadavre exquis, or ‘exquisite corpse.’
I agree with the Saker, and this article that “[m]aybe there is no master plan at all beyond a scrawled hate message to the rest of the world and posterity.” The coherence of what passes for American foreign policy, in particular, appears to be as random and disassociate as a high stakes game of cadavre exquis. Bet you could see where I was going with this from the start – let’s hope we don’t all end up that way!
RePost:
This snap election called by May achieve many things, individually not of that much importance, but together as a whole, more significantly so.
1) One common criticism of May in the House of Commons, levelled at her by opposition MPs is that she is not the elected Prime Minister. If May managed to win a general election then this would silence that type of criticism.
2) The threat of internal splits within the Tory party can be temporarily lessened by taking the popular vote as an indication of public will.
3) Pressure from Nicola Sturgeon over Scottish Independence can be more easily avoided as the focus moves to the general election. Since it is known that Sturgeon will campaign for Scottish independence anyway, this is a known factor that can be accounted for. The upcoming election can be used as an excuse to delay an immediate Scottish indyref and the matters that immediately follow a GE can also be used as an excuse to delay a Scottish indyref.
4) Labour is sunk. Corbyn is unpopular with his own party. Labour voters are threatening to vote conservative just to oust him. UKIP is no longer relevant and doesn’t forward the concept of Brexit. That issue has been taken by the Tories. Farage, UKIPs most influential spokesperson isn’t going to stand as a candidate. Other UKIP MPs have either quit or defected back to the Tories.
5) The Lib Dems are not forgiven for their time power haring with the Tories. They are not respected as standing for any principals. Before they shared government with the Tories they were considered out of touch. Now they are considered out of touch and untrustworthy.
6) SNP can only win a maximum of one further seat. Westminster is designed such that no devolved power can even have direct rule. So, the Tories will not be concerned with the SNP. After Labour backstabbed Scotland at the last IndyRef the SNP are unlikely to want to be associated with Labour’s toxic brand.
7) So, basically, the Tories don’t have a significant opposition in any of the parties. It is highly unlikely that those disparate movements would ally because of their differences. So, the Tories will remain in power as long as other parties are divided.
8) The only significant party policy challenging the Tories is the Lib Dems promise to “try” to reverse Brexit if the Lib Dems get into power. I’ve challenged Remainers to vote for Lib Dems and there isn’t the appetite even with Remainers to vote Lib Dems over the matter of Brexit. I’m told that “politics isn’t just about Brexit”.
9) I think the least important reason for another GE is Brexit. It could silence those that complicate the negotiation process and simplify the government stance. It could just as easily do the opposite.
Found an article, dated yesterday, 25 April 2017 which seems to confirm my suspicion in point 3) above.
“General election forces Sturgeon to POSTPONE her bid to force a new independence referendum as a poll finds support for independence has slumped to just 40%”
“Nicola Sturgeon admitted today her plan to press ahead with a new independence referendum would have to be postponed until after the election.”
And further to point 4) other articles:
24 April 2017 “UKIP leader Paul Nuttall doesn’t even know if he’ll stand in the general”
25 April 2017 “Former UKIP donor Arron Banks won’t run as MP”
21 April 2017 “EX-UKIP leader Farage says he won’t run in UK election” – that was the one I already knew about. Seems there is no appetite within UKIP to remain as a political party without the ability to coalesce around the central argument of Brexit and use it to gain votes.
Obviously, if Corbyn wins, it will be because Russia…
Reblogged this on perfectlyfadeddelusions.
Two things:-
1. May was forced into calling an early UK general election to obscure the fact that the Crown Prosecution Service was intending to prosecute 30 of her MPs in the House of Commons for illegal over-spending in the 2015 general election. This would have been publicly embarrassing for her and her government and the probable outcome of a whole series of by-elections would probably have meant that she lost her majority in the House of Commons and – eventually – a complete loss of political power. By calling a general election now – before any prosecutions might take place – she may be able to increase her overall majority in the House of Commons such that even the loss of 30 by-elections will not affect her Commons majority and her grip on power.
2. Why Trump won has probably more to do with Cambridge Analytica than anything else. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_Analytica#2016_presidential_election. As to who is really calling the shots in the White House, look no further than Trumps daughter and – in particular – his son-in-law, the “good” zionist Jared Kushner. He is making sure that the USA continues to support the Yinon Plan.
Like most such analyses this has some merits but also misses much that offers contradiction. Why would May worry that much about one more scandal? is it really likely she would lose her majority any time soon when Labour can’t seem to guarantee holding even safe seats? Why would all the competing vested interests in Washington stand aside for the Kushners? And why do so many prefer to ignore the clear signs of chaos, panic and confusion in the corridors of power? One commentator even described the Idlib “gas attack” as a “master stroke” by the neocons! Do we prefer to see our overlords as Machiavellis rather than poor functioning psychopaths whose idea of a cunning plan is to throw gasoline on a fire and assume they won’t get burned?
The big losers in the 2015 general election were the Liberal Democrats, who lost 49 parliamentary seats.
It is almost certain that most of the 30 MPs under investigation won seats from the Liberal Democrats.
So, while the Labour Party might not necessarily win any of the 30, the Lib Dems probably would.
If that process continued over the space of a year or so, it would steadily undermine May’s reputation.
Eventually, she would be forced to go for a general election anyway if she lost her overall Commons majority.
By holding a general election now, she side-steps any court-ordered by-elections and she keeps power.
Also – if successful – she will have her own refreshed mandate for a further 5 years in power. Appalling!
As for the Trump election: as with the Brexit referendum result in Britain, the usual political elites may well have had very little to do with the outcomes.
The liberal metropolitan elites in both countries have an over-inflated opinion of themselves and their capacities.
In a democracy, ordinary people – from time-to-time – may actually decide outcomes without elite assistance.
I think that is what happened where Trump was concerned.
Yes, outfits like Cambridge Analytica helped in identifying supportive resentful red neck worker voters.
But it was those people who eventually chose to go and vote for Trump. No one put a gun to their heads.
However, everything that has happened since his inauguration is all largely down to the rabid political elite.
It is just not possible to get away from their stupid slavering ways.
Trump and May are both real idiots, like many others in the political elites.
All we can ever hope for is that they are harmless idiots, relatively speaking.
On point 1, I agree with John.
Incumbent governments often do call snap elections if they are confident that the lead they hold over the main opposition party can be further extended. If British Labour is in trouble as the polls suggest, then why wouldn’t Theresa May change her mind from refusing to hold a snap election in March earlier this year to now announcing one for 8 June 2017?
Another reason for calling a snap general election is that if any charges are to be pressed against those MPs involved in the election expenses scandal, they have to be done now before June. By calling such an early election, May is effectively heading off those charges which would force a series of by-elections to be held that could favour UKIP or the Liberal Democrats.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-general-election-expenses-scandal-distract-schedule-mps-tory-party-paul-nuttall-david-a7690106.html
I also agree with @John; @Jen: not to be pedantic, I thought the number (of MPs) was 20? Moving on, another ancillary factor between March and now was the Budget 2017 proposal to raise NI contributions – which turned out to be a political banana skin and caused a prompt U-turn. Now Hammond is signalling that the promise not to raise taxes will be dropped completely. I think we can see where this is going – Tax Haven UK.corp! Top tier taxes cut, corporation tax slashed, a dividend tax holiday – to be offset by benefits cuts, disability PIP cuts, a raise in the basal rate of income tax, NI conts, capital gains etc. and the selling of the Crown Jewels, no doubt.
«The myth that British data scientists won the election for Trump»
http://littleatoms.com/news-science/donald-trump-didnt-win-election-through-facebook
Reblogged this on Floating-voter.
Is there really any big mystery about what happened in America? It seems the CIA and the other Intelligence agencies rooted for Clintin’s Democrats because they had an understanding with them. Hilary pushed Obama into supporting Regime Change in Libya, as Obama himself alleges. She was instrumental in pushing for Regime Change in Kiev and was clearly intending to bomb Assad at the first opportunity; before Trump’s missile attack she called for attacks on all 26 Syrian air fields. These powerful agencies worked closely with the US MSM to attack Trump on the basis he was perhaps a Russian secret agent; it was a daily onslaught and Trump was too weak and cowardly to face it down. So he capitulated to the Power Men and now everything is back in the hands of the neoconservatives with a policy of forging an alliance with the Sunni Gulf rulers and israel against Iran; Mattis leads that and seems to have persuaded both Israel and Saudi Arabia to talk more openly with each other, instead of just covertly. He has also persuaded both countries not to jump the gun, advising now is not the time to attack Assad openly or break the nuclear deal with Iran. Not yet the time; reliance on the fanatical death squads of jihadis in Syria will wear down Syria and exhaust Russia. But the old American triumphalism is back in full force; they will try to reshape the World as they want to see it with the Gulf Arabs controlling Syria, Iran diminished if not defeated and Russia humiliated if not fully pushed back. Clinton might as well be President so far as foreign policy is concerned. Trump’s weakness and opportunism is not a good sign for the coming years.
There are unanswered questions in plenty. Why did some unknown and crucial actors reject Clinton at the eleventh hour? Was this a longterm plan or last minute decision? Was Trump permitted to win or was it a genuine surprise? if the former why the unified hatred from the political class? If the latter, how was an apparent rank outsider permitted to gain the WH? Why does Trump’s foreign policy look as if it’s being made up by a drunk guy with short term memory loss?
There are many shades of opinion about what the current political realities may be, but nothing can be concluded for certain, and all attempts to encapsulate things end up oversimplifying.
One possibility for Killer K’s dumping at the 11th hour is that Wikileaks’ monthly dumpings of emails that passed over her campaign manager John Podesta’s server, hinting at (among other things) possible connections she, Bill Clinton, Huma Abedin and her ex-husband had with paedophilia networks and some plain weird people like the Serbian-American performance artist M Abramovic, frightened her backers. They realised that at some point in her first term Killer K would be impeached over this and possibly over other matters like the Benghazi debacle that resulted in J Christopher Steven’s death and the exposure of the Clinton Foundation as a money-laundering racket.
As for Donald Trump’s foreign policy: it’s starting to look as if Mike Pence has got control of that while Ivanka Trump (incidentally a close friend of Chelsea Clinton, so there is always the possibility that Killer K is feeding this connection) and her husband Jared Kushner act as his assistants feeding the President.
Er … yer what?