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Aftermath of the alleged gas attack on Douma, an evolving narrative: Part 1

a map of potential confrontation

April 9 2018

It seems almost certain now that the attack on the Syrian airbase near Homs last night was by the Israeli airforce, though we can assume this was with the approval of the USA. While Israel has attacked that airbase before in recent months, the coincidence of timing, less than a day after the alleged “chemical attack” at Douma, obviously raises a lot of questions about what agenda was being served.

Was this a one-off attack using Israel as a shield for US action as discussed in a Brookings Institution paper from 2009? (we agree with the author of that article that this aspect doesn’t get enough discussion).

Was it a prelude to a wider involvement by the USA, France and maybe even the UK? How far is NATO intending to push the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia? How will Russia respond to the Israeli assault or to any subsequent action? Is there any kind of off-ramp or is an escalating confrontation all but inevitable?
And what on earth is Trump really doing?

With the UNSC meeting today and almost any development possible thereafter, the next few days will be interesting.