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DISCUSS: the “Kerch Strait crisis”

Today, Sunday November 25, an incident happened in the Black Sea that threatens to seriously escalate the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Details are still unclear but it seems vessels of the Ukrainian navy were fired upon by Russian ships near the Kerch Strait and some Ukrainian service men were injured.

Russia says the Ukrainian vessels were behaving in a “dangerous” manner and ignoring “legal demands to stop” . Ukraine claims they were simply attacked without any provocation while attempting to legally navigate the Kerch Strait en route to Mariupol.

It appears the Ukraine government may use the incident to impose martial law.

NATO is responding predictably so far

At the time of writing nothing has been heard from the US on the matter.

We’ll update this as and when. Feel free to discuss, add information and links below.


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vexarb

Updated end of November by the Saker. Everybody knows that: “History repeats itself, first as Tragedy, then as Farce. Historic Ukie provocation repeats itself first as Farce, then as Farce. Ukie Uber-Loser President “Porkie” Poroshenko negotiating with UK Strong-and-Stable Prime Minister “Saint” Theresa May for scriptwriter position in the next Anti-Russian Farce at Whitehall Theatre of the Absurd.

https://thesaker.is/uber-loser-poroshenko-goes-full-saakashvili/

vexarb

[Mailman here] The Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko’s attempted to shore up his approval rate for the upcoming election by provoking a military incident. It was a gamble and it failed

(rest of article here):
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/11/ukraine-poroshenko-initiated-clash-with-russia-to-gain-dictatorial-powers-he-failed.html#more

kevin morris
kevin morris

I tend to agree with you Vexarb. It was a provocation that went wrong. I supported Russia’s annexation of Crimea. It was a masterstroke but talk of it being the democratic will of Crimeans is disingenuous. I live in Yorkshire. There is a home rule for Yorkshire movement, but speaking realistically, had the citizens of Yorkshire voted to secede from the United Kingdom it is more than likely that HM government would have prevented such action.

It is very difficult to avoid the cold war thinking in the situation. ‘Russia has taken sovereign Ukraine territory. In 1956, the USSR put down a rebellion in Hungary; in 1968, the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia. The Baltic states are fearful that they will be next, as is Poland. We must stop an ascendant Russia’s attempt to regain states it vacated at the collapse of the Soviet Union’

I know Vladimir Putin is much shrewder than that and I know the US has a long history of false flag situations as a justification for war, but Poroshenko and the Ukraine are in deep trouble. The provocation was ridiculous and the consequence, calling for marshall law was quite ludicrous too.

The BBC may be trying to blame the whole situation on Russia, but the Russian control of of the Crimea is a fait accompli which sadly, the Ukraine, the US and NATO refuses to accept. Strictly legally speaking, the Ukraine feels it has a right to sail under the Kerch Straight bridge without begging the Russians for permission, because the Ukraine is theirs, but given the realpolitik of the situation, neither the US nor NATO wish to rush into another war in the Crimea. They feel obliged to show support to Poroshenko but that will be all they can do.

Whether Poroshenko’s provocation helps him stay in power, I’m not sure, but the truth is that the Ukraine needs Russia far more than it does either the US or the EU.

Paul
Paul

The Yorkshire example only works if you add that there had been a Rightwing Coup in London a few weeks earlier organised by the CIA and MI6 that led to the Government demanding acceptance of the Coup and when Yorkshire refused starting firing ’s of unguided Grad missiles into Sheffield and Leeds, killing thousands of civilians.
Just as you never read about Houthi rebels without the ‘Iranian backed’ rider you never hear of the American-EU Coup in Kiev get linked with ‘Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea’. Within hours of the Kerch incident before anybody had a clue as to what really happened the West was full of claims Russia was about to invade East Europe. If East Europe ends up as a nuclear desert with Poland finally abolished for ever (as Russia and Germany would like) we know who will get the blame, Putin!
The only comfort we have at the moment is that it probably is just a bid to increase military spending in both America and the UK. Our economies depend on it.
Normally when a wobbly unpopular Government takes extreme authoritarian measures such as declaring Martial Law there is an outcry from the liberals; arbitrary detention, conscription, banning strikes and all protests while closing hostile press is thought of as ‘North Korean’. But not this time. The Guardian assures us that Martial Law has had ‘no effect; life goes on as normal’. Nor will you find one iota of opinion that Poroshenko, 5th in the Presedential race on 8% of the popular vote has crudely manufactured the situation for the personal reasons. How strange that the Western democracies laud this murdering criminal on 8% of the vote without hesitation. Poland in particular is taking a surprising risk in fermenting a serious war in the East against Russia; don’t they read their own history?
The Syrian War, backed enthusiastically by Western Europe has resulted in mass immigration that those same countries are struggling with. Immigration from Ukraine across the Polish border now tops over a million a year. They are relatively easily absorbed into the economy of Western Europe but if there is war in the East an awful lot of Ukrainians and Poles will be heading West. And Russians if it goes badly for them.
The West doesn’t believe Russia will fight if it comes to it. But the Crimea is a true Red Line for Putin. Quite rightly in my opinion.

kevin morris
kevin morris

I agree with you on the right wing coup in the Ukraine and I also fully supported Crimea’s demand to return to the Russian fold. However, I am sleptical of claims that Crimea becoming Russian once more had legality according to international law despite the vote. It strikes me that such claims are wishful thinking. However Russia’s takeover of the Crimea- a move they felt forced upon them by the Ukrainian coup-,was a masterstroke, all the more remarkable by the almost total lack of loss of life.

That said, people have long memories. It is at least understandable why whatever their politics, the Ukraine would doubt the legality of Russian moves and that the Baltic states with their own substantial Russian minorities and Poland whose almost entire officer class was massacred by the NKVD on the orders of Stalin, would feel that Crimea is an example of Russian expansionism rather than an attempt by Russia to keep its chief Black Sea naval base for over a century.

vierotchka

Excellent explanation by Mark Sleboda:

Published on 26 Nov 2018

The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and International Affairs and Security Analyst via Moscow, Mark Sleboda take a look at the real reason behind Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko’s Kerch Strait provocation, and how it has less to do with conflict towards Russia and more to do with self preservation, as Ukraine’s ‘8% approval rating’ President.

vierotchka

Published on 26 Nov 2018

Ukraine has declared martial law following the detention of three Ukrainian vessels trespassing in Russian territorial waters off the coast of Crimea on Sunday. Russia immediately called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to rule on the incident, RT’s Yulia Shapovalova reports. Then, former US diplomat Jim Jatras joins to discuss this latest flare-up of ongoing tensions in the region and the world’s reaction.

Einstein
Einstein

“The Ukraine” ( = ‘border’) is a totally invented country, by the Germans in the 1917 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
In reality, there is a western part, Galicia (capital: Lvov), and an eastern part, Kiev (capital: Kiev) which were separate throughout history until 1939.
Galicia remains neo-Nazi and pro-EU nationalist.
Kiev remains pro-Russian but is currently held hostage by a CIA-imposed tyrant, ‘Porky’ Poroshenko.

It would be best for all if the Ukraine were split along the 1939 border and the neo-Nazis can live in their bunker in Lvov while Kiev and the rest of the Ukraine return to Russia.

vexarb

Update in today’s Saker Vineyard; Ukrainian sailors admit orders to infringe:

https://thesaker.is/ukrainian-sailors-confirm-that-they-deliberately-entered-russian-waters/

vierotchka

Graham Phillips has it down pat:

ragheadthefiendlyterrorist

Over on ze Guardian, Simon Jenkins claimed that Ukraine “elected a pro Western president” in 2014.

The entire Nuland Ukranazi coup is down the Brutish memory hole.

tutisicecream

Also the Jackanory analysis by Tisdall at the Graun is par for the course with the usual failure to focus on the actual problem – the failure of Poroshenko to implement the Minsk II agreement because the Praviy Sector/ Svaboda [the hard core fascists the Graun white-wash as far-right] would not allow it.

That was proceeded by the USA’s blatant coup, orchestrated by Pyatt, Nuland and Brennan which lead to the fracturing of Ukrainian civil society and the ensuing civil war.

So the Ukraine conflict is not an invasion by Russia nor is it a land grab in Crimea. It is the direct result of a US regime change plan subsequently backed by Europe and NATO which failed to maintain Ukrainian civil cohesion. Which no doubt, it was ever intended to do.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/26/kerch-confrontation-crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine

John Gilberts
John Gilberts

I’ll put this here because Trudeau’s Canada is a fervent fan of Ukraine and its Nazis are always welcome in Ottawa as part of JT and Galician-Canadian ultranationalist FM Chrystia Freeland’s ‘feminist foreign policy’. An excellent piece by Canadian dissident Yves Engler.

The Neo-Nazis in Canada’s Military
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/11/26/the-neo-nazis-in-canadas-military/

“…Over the past four years over 1,000 Canadian troops (a rotation of 200 every six months) have deployed to the Ukraine to train a force that includes the best-organized Neo-Nazis in the world. Far right militia members are part of the force fighting Russian-aligned groups in eastern Ukraine.

Five months ago Canada’s military attache in Kiev, Colonel Brian Irwin, met privately with officers from the Azov battalion, who use the Nazi ‘Wolfangal’ symbol and praise officials who helped slaughter Jews during WWII. According to Azov, the Canadian officials concluded the June briefing by expressing ‘their hopes for further fruitful cooperation.’

For their part, top politicians have spoken alongside and marched with members of Ukraine’s Right Sector, which said it was ‘defending the values of White Christian Europe against the loss of the Nation….”

mark
mark

Another group use the crossed hand grenades symbol of the SS Dirlewanger Brigade.
This was led by a man called Dirlewanger, an extremely violent and mentally deranged individual, who had served prison sentences before the war for rape and other crimes.
He led a unit of like minded individuals in Russia who excelled themselves even by SS standards.
They routinely rounded up large numbers of civilians and burnt them to death in barns.
Their particular party piece was keeping a pack of rabid starving dogs, who were set upon victims to eat them alive.

Nice people, these Ukies. Ideal CIA material, like ISIS.

DunGroanin
DunGroanin

Boom! Just like that the Ukraine is in lockdown, no better then North Korea or Myanmar for independent journalists.

Putin and his generals have been careful not to be provoked into action by Russian casualties. Looks like they bought this false flag, rumours of bridge killing bombs, presence of UK forces… all aimed at … getting a rubber stamp on martial law!

It is an obvious ‘whip lash’ scam incident – never mind if it has no logical response that means imposing martial law on your own citizens!

“Ouch my neck hurts call an ambulance!”
“But..but you weren’t even in the car..”

Maybe Putin knew and is happy to let them start a winter campaign? ‘Get your coat off general’

A soft coup. Militarization. Mass brainwashing, lack of free reporting or free movement of people and tourists.
I reckon they could conscript a million easily. 12 months they would be ready to roll. Expect marching troops and flags everywhere and many nato advisors.

For any time travel fans wanting to see a prewar Hitler mesmerised population about to sacrifice themselves as a proxy army for the benefit of the usual war profiteers and imperialists, to yet again subdue Russia – I say a cheap visit to Ukraine would be very informative.

Weren’t they all celebrating the ‘never again’ war just a few days ago? All the while planning one more.

milosevic
milosevic
vexarb

[Stop me if you’ve heard this one]

anti_republocrat BTL SyrPer #281002 quoting /MoA

Update – Nov. 26, 6:00 utc

The Russian coast guard detained the three Ukrainian ships and their crews in Russian waters. They again illegally attempted to cross from the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian side says the two of its seaman were injured.

Since Crimea voted to again become a part of Russia the Kerch Strait is Russian territorial water. Ships can pass the strait but are required to take on a pilot and to undergo inspections if the Russian coast guard demand such. The Ukrainian side understands that these are legal measures. In a report by the U.S. government outlet RFL/RE published in August the Ukrainian side admitted as much:

[The Ukrainian Sea Guard and the squadron’s spokesman] Poliakov said that, while Russia’s actions are “provocative,” because of a controversial 2003 agreement on cooperation and shared use of the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, “everything Russia is doing here is technically legal.”

The three Ukrainian ships tried to pass Russian waters without informing Russian authorities and without taking on pilots. Since Russia build the $3.7 billion Kerch bridge which connects Crimea with Russia, U.S. commentators and Ukrainian politicians threatened to blow up the bridge. The Russian are understandably carefully about any traffic near to it.

Following yesterday’s incident the president of the Ukraine Pedro Poroshenko proposed to declare martial law. The parliament will have to decide on that. This is a very convenient move for Poroshenko as it will allow him to move the March 2019 general election date. Poroshenko trails in the polls with some 8% of the total vote.

Russia called for a UN Security Council emergency meeting which will be held at today at 11:00am EST. The passage through the Kerch Strait is again open for civil vessels.

The usual anti-Russian subject in “western” political circles use the incident to demand more measures against Russia. Fronting the effort is the weapon industry lobbying group Atlantic Council:

Anders Åslund, a resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said: “NATO and the United States should send in naval ships in the Sea of Azov to guarantee that it stays open to international shipping.”

Such action, Åslund said, “would be in full compliance with the UN Law of the Sea Convention of 1982 and the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits of 1936.”

Anders Aslund is listed as member of the “U.S. & Canadian Cluster” of the secret influence operation by the British Foreign Office describe here two days ago. He is obviously unable to read a map, sea chart, or UN convention. The Ukrainian attempt to pass through the Kerch Strait without Russian consent is a breach of Article 7, 19 and 21 of the UN Law of the Sea Convention (pdf):

Article 7: “Subject to this Convention, ships of all States, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea.”

Article 19-1: “Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law.”

Article 21-4: “Foreign ships exercising the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea shall comply with all such [coastal state] laws and regulations and all generally accepted international regulations relating to the prevention of collisions at sea.”

There will now be again a lot of noise in the media about the ‘nefarious Russians’ and new demands for even more useless sanctions. But the legal case is clear. It was the Ukrainian navy that willfully attempted to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov through Russian territorial waters without regard to the laws and regulations of the coastal state. Russia was within its full rights to prevent the passage and to seize the Ukrainian boats

[I hope the Crimean Authority has a sense of humour as great as that of the Iranian reaction to U$ naval provocateurs: return them in nice new civvy suits with a bag of sweets for prezzy.]

mark
mark

One of the heroic British sailors in the Iran incident said that the Iranians had “nicked his ipad” and he “cried himself to sleep” afterwards. Apparently, he looked like Mr. Bean/ Rowan Atkinson, who is very popular in Iran. One of the Iranians slapped him on the head and called him Mr. Bean. The army was playing the navy at rugby when this happened, and sang a song, “What shall we do with the captured sailors?” as a parody of “What shall we do with the drunken sailor?”
“What shall we do with the captured sailors?……….”Put them on telly and watch them blubber……..”

Kathy
Kathy

This all seems to have a depressing inevitability to it and was only a matter of time. The scene has been set for some time now. The UK management are rubbing their hands together again. Lost pieces on the chess board swept aside and a new piece bought into play. War mongers of the highest degree.We live in hope that Russia,s levelheadedness out smarts them all and wouldn’t it be great if Trump refused to be pulled in and the warmongers of the US all got the sack. I only hope that this corrupt system fails and truth and peace will out. I do hope there are not as many people in the west who will buy into any of this any more.

jantje
jantje

there are an awful lot of people not buying this anymore,but it’s not the people that”matter’,namely the war profiteers et.all

Einstein
Einstein

The boy Williamson has ordered UK military units to support the neo-Nazis in Kiev against the Russians.
This is complete madness.
Effectively, the UK is declaring war on Russia with no debate in Parliament.

rtj1211
rtj1211

Williamson is the apotheosis of a 21st century jumped-up piccaninny needing a noose round his neck for murdering to order.

Who he thinks he represents is beyond me.

He is worthy neither of legal due process nor basic human rights.

Many think such things should be granted to the worst criminals of all.

Williamson is the worst criminal type of all as he has never fought in battle, knows nothing of the misery of war, yet would condemn thousands to death for thirty pieces of silver.

So I guess the robustness of our commitment to UK law is whether we would grant this murdering psychopath-by-proxy a trial by jury and whether he would be spared the noose by our adherence to legal due process in a British Court.

Antonym
Antonym

Note that the Black Sea Shipyard in Mykolaiv Ukraine was the place Russia built its biggest ships; now it is in the hands of Poroshenko & co.

Francis Lee
Francis Lee

It’s an odds on bet that the whole amateurish episode was carried out by the Poroshenko regime on orders from the US-NATO. The wretched hole-in-the-air Stoltenberg, has recently been in Kiev poking his nose into other peoples’ business and finalising the plans. Ukraine is now de facto member of NATO. The only thing missing is the Article 5 commitment. The Kerch bridge, the Crimea, are now in the front line for NATO’s planned war on Russia and there is no longer anywhere for Russia to retreat. Any attack on the Kerch bridge will be an attack on Russia itself. This means war. No question.

Just think I have made out my will in advance, and it cost me £5000.00. Looks like I wasted my money. Gallows humour! Farewell cruel world!

Jo
Jo

Also usa knows Poro is a complete loser…Tymoshenko is too unpredictable.all this is about buying time….to replace Poro or increase his voter appeal…..try to find another sucker or train him up eg Turchonov by “successful” actions against Russia….increasing pressure sanctions making more provocations false flags …motivate Tatars terrorists and support them….increase capabilities of ukrops and get more arms supplies confirmed…….etc etc

DunGroanin
DunGroanin

The Azov being an enclosed sea, more a very large pond, is very shallow for most of its coastline, reaching a max depth of about 14m in the middle, so i read.
It is not so saline as the Black Sea that it connects to via the strait. The main fish species are declining, the sturgeon and anchovy and the dolphins seems to be extinct. Like the dead Ural, agricultural and industrial use of river waters are to blame. The wetlands around are a nature reserve for many bird species, it does not need incinerating in a jolly jape of adventurism.
https://medium.com/@LoveNature/diving-into-the-depthless-deep-of-earths-shallowest-seas-a25def8388d7

As shallow water it can not really be useful for the bigger ships.

The Russians have built two new bridges to the Crimea, the longest in Europe any boats going under must be a risk. Presumably this bypass of the land corridor via the Ukraine was strategic – it was built in record time and ahead of schedule!

It does seem to be designed to be a flashpoint, an easy target for the Ukrainians, which would lead to an instant endng of Ukraine, as the Russian roll in.
In fact the unstable geology of the sea bed may shorten the 100 year planned lifespan and give the ruskies a causus beli, their very own WTC, excuse to kick -off!

Nato should be very careful about thinking of riding into such a muddy water valley of death.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian people are being set up as the latest proxy army of the global robber barons for a monumental suicidal attack against their erstwhile soviet partners.

The folly is high, the waters are low.

DunGroanin
DunGroanin

Keep your hair on!
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/nov/26/fringe-benefits-the-hair-extension-industry-in-ukraine-a-photo-essay

Along with being paid to do 10 thousand steps by the government – CIA – the poor citizens are being herded towards doom.

Jo
Jo

Designed to be a flashpoint…no..remember such things as Ukraine cut of water supplies to Crimea…cut off Crimea connections ….sent terrorists committed power line sabotage….would have attempted to bring it to its knees….committed acts against humanitariam needs of Crimean peoples…. bridge vital for humanitarian supplies…defence equipment extensive infrastructure renewal military and civilan…

Gezzah Potts
Gezzah Potts

Even tho I try and avoid MSM like I’d avoid a dog with rabies, did watch ABC News just now on the Kerch Strait incident. Reported by the craven Empire mouthpiece cretin Philip Williams, it was a masterclass in Orwellian newspeak. The only two people who spoke were Poroshenko and some Ukrainian military officer, while Williams prattled on about Russian aggression, Russian provocations, and Russia annexing Crimea, and backing rebels in Ukraine. In summary, a full on pack of pro Empire, russophobic vomit masquerading as News. My TV is now off. Really good analysis of this at Moon Of Alabama site this morning.

Henry Wilson
Henry Wilson

Macron & Merkel want to expand to the east nothing changes

Eurasia News Online

And they will fail. Eh, nothing changes 🙂

Gary Weglarz
Gary Weglarz

What is most tragic about our current times is the fact that there is clearly no reason for the world to be facing the peril of global war that is ever closer to our doorstep. We could be living in peace and actually dealing with the many very real crises we face as a global family. The fact is simply that – there is no “Russian aggression,” nor threat of “Chinese domination,” nor “Venezuelan communism” nor “Iran as the global sponsor of terrorism,” nor any of the other non-stop nonsense and lies the Western oligarchs are using their media corporations for in order to parade endless lies before the now addled minds of their Western citizenry.

What there is – is only a small group of uber-wealthy, very dangerous, very violent, psychopathic elites who would rather destroy the entire planet than lose their grip on the global hegemony they have enjoyed through the West controlling the entire planet for over 500 years now. Their wealth, and privilege, and power are all that matter to them. A half-a-million dead Iraqi children mean nothing to them. Illegal and immoral wars mean nothing to them. Dying children in Yemen mean nothing to them. Five of these people now have as much wealth as the bottom one-half of all human beings on planet earth – the every more desperate plight of half of humanity means nothing to them. In the past when such monsters fell or were brought crashing down by the population the rest of humanity had the chance to rebuild. Given the modern weapons systems at their disposal when these monsters fall rebuilding will likely not be in the cards for the rest of us. Stopping them in their truly mad quest for continued global domination at all costs is all that matters at this point.

Gezzah Potts
Gezzah Potts

Gary Weglarz: 100℅ Completely Spot On. Every sentence spot on, especially the ‘very dangerous psychopathic elites’ line.

milosevic
milosevic

Be careful talking about “uber-wealthy global elites”, or the usual ethnic activists will get after you.

https://off-guardian.org/2018/11/22/jfks-killing-fifty-five-years-on-casting-light-on-9-11-and-other-21st-century-crimes/#comment-138714

jantje
jantje

the problem with these so called elites is that they have lost all sense of reality,if they ever had any,they live in a self feeding bubble,what will happen if the food runs out though?

frank
frank

With a proper banking system the whole world could be living in the luxury that is now reserved for the 1-percenters. Think about that.

(OK, some other things need to change too.)

tutisicecream

A direct provocation here by Ukraine and immediately announcing martial law.

How this stacks up with the previous provocations and false flags blamed on Russia is pretty easy to see. Exactly why Ukraine would send small gun boats and an armed tug through to Mariupol is practically inexplicable. As inexplicable as flight MH17 being allowed by Ukraine air traffic control flight corridor clearance to fly where it did on a day where we are told the radar systems were down for maintenance…?

Poroshenko’s presidency is nearing its Nadia so this looks more like desperation on the part of the Putch government in Kiev. 1.5 million Ukrainians have left for Russia and another million to other countries.

The WMSM will no doubt have their scripts already delivered for this new deception. Exactly how the Neo-con Nazification project for Ukraine was supposed to pan out is now clear. Total chaos. Total disruption. Of course it is not possible to preach about sovereignty once you have backed an illegal constitutional coup in Ukraine which started this all. But this is exactly what the Western Political classes have been doing.

Willem
Willem

According to the Dutch media (nu.nl) there is nothing ‘alleged’ or ‘unclear’: Russia attacked and confiscated 3 Ukrainian ships, in a strait near ‘Annexed Crimea (by Russia).’ Clearly an act of agression from Russia, the paper implies.

The only thing that is unclear for journalists who write for nu.nl, is how much martial law will be imposed by Poroshenko.

Journalists never learn (from 911, WMD, Ghouta, Tonkin, the Maine), or just want war. First the war, than the facts. Why the rush?

https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/5593793/oekraiense-president-kondigt-staat-van-beleg-af-aanval-marineschepen.html