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Discuss: The Coup in Venezuela

There is a coup happening in Venezuela. Not the rather sad, fizzling, slow-motion coup that has been beavering away behind the scenes for months, if not years. An actual violent attempt to overthrow the government by force.

Juan Guaido, a Trudeau-ish non-entity picked by the US as “their guy” based on his total lack of personality or values, made a statement on his twitter:

Not long afterwards, violent incidents broke out. It was always going to end this way.

Guaido has no domestic support, is recognised by less than one-quarter of the globe, has no democratic mandate and no grip on power at all. If he wants the Presidency, or rather, if his US-based masters want him to have the presidency, he was always going to have to take it by force.

The trouble, up to this point, has been his total lack of support from the military. Donald Trump’s national security advisor John Bolton, the man at the vanguard of the Venezuelan coup, has been almost literally begging for the Venezuelan army to switch sides for months.

The US “aid convoy”, which evidence suggests was actually a method of smuggling weapons into the country, was also a massive failure.

As such Guaido has no guns. He has no soldiers. He has nothing.

In an apparent misreading of one of Teddy Roosevelt’s most famous quotes, rather than speaking softly and carrying a big stick, Bolton and his cronies have spent the last six months speaking loudly and pretending they have a stick.

Video footage shows a few dozen, maybe a couple of hundred, protesters hurling Molotov cocktails at police vans:

That seems to be it, right now.

But the coup has got to happen right now, or it’s over. In fact, part of Juan Guaido’s desperation is probably a realisation that he is rapidly approaching the point where he becomes more valuable to his CIA handlers dead than alive. Once it’s apparent he’ll never be President, the CIA could easily decide to “Nemstov” Guaido and lay the crime at Maduro’s feet.

The Western response has been fairly predictable, totally organic and not-at-all contrived “demonstrations” have sprung up outside the Venezuelan embassies in the US and a few other countries.

The media are picking out the party line and fighting it hard, as usual. Bloomberg are refusing to even call it a coup:

While The Guardian are calling it a “momentous day in Venezuela’s history”:

This comes as no surprise. The Guardian has never met a war or coup it did not like and Tom Philips, The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, has made no secret of his support for the US coup in the past:

So the question’s arise:

  • Will the coup be successful?
  • Will the military side with Guaido?
  • If not, what next for Venezuela and Guaido?
  • At what point will the calls for “humanitarian intervention” begin?
  • Will the US actually start a war in Venezuela this time?
  • Will Russia provide military aid to Maduro’s government? Will China?
  • Will sanity prevail?