Jan 15, 2020

Sudden resignation of Russian PM Medvedev & his govt

In a wide-ranging speech on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin made several key announcements. (You can read a full English transcript here).

Although he touched on benefits, pensions and other matters, it will be his comments on reforming the Russian constitution which will stir up the geo-political status quo.

Putin is putting forward several changes:

A two-term limit for Presidential candidates
Barring dual citizens, or those born outside Russia, from running for President
Increasing the powers of the Duma (Russian legislative body)
Having the Prime Minister selected by the Duma, rather than the President
Enshrining the Russian Security Council in the constitution
That the Russian constitution takes precedence over International Law, especially where it might infringe the legal rights of Russian citizens

These changes are to be put to the Russian people in a referendum by the end of the year “if it all is solved quickly”, according to Russia’s Central Election Commission.

Immediately following these announcements, the entire Russian government resigned – including Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev – though he will be offered a new job, reports RT:

During his speech, Putin said he intended to create the position of deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, which would be offered to Medvedev.

Medvedev’s replacement as PM is reported to be Mikhail Mishustin, head of the Federal Tax Service:

BREAKING: Russian media reporting that Vladimir Putin has appointed Mikhail Mishustin, the head of Russia's Federal Tax Service, as the new Prime Minister. He's a 53-year-old native of Moscow, and is a surprise choice. pic.twitter.com/9nFuWuQV4D

— Bryan MacDonald (@27khv) January 15, 2020

The reflexively anti-Putin Western press and commentariat have already decided these moves are to secure Putin as “ruler for life”:

Putin has called for a constitutional change so the parliament, not the president, can appoint the prime minister. Which might give you a clue about what he plans to do when his final term as president runs out in 2024 https://t.co/3XBbmVGPuG

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) January 15, 2020

Putin has proposed sweeping reforms that could extend his 20-year grip on power beyond the end of his presidency. The Russian government has now resigned to give Putin "an opportunity to take all the necessary decisions in these conditions," per Medvedevhttps://t.co/S9Uu887mYU

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) January 15, 2020

Medvedev resigns in Russia as Putin introduces constitutional changes that may presage a move to keep power after his term-limited tenure is supposed to expire in 2024. https://t.co/PNJLiF5Uu3

— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) January 15, 2020

A view shared by some figures from the alternate media as well:

Russia needs a strong leader and today’s developments indicate that Vladimir Putin will remain in overall charge of the country after 2024, which is to rejoice over. It should also be said that Russia must develop a strong system and an all-powerful party, as the CPSU was.

— Dr Marcus Papadopoulos (@DrMarcusP) January 15, 2020

This might seem at first glance to be in stark contrast with the analysis of Russia-based journalist Bryan MacDonald:

Vladimir Putin basically confirmed today that he will leave the Kremlin, and step down as Russian President, in 2024. He also proposed constitutional changes which would ensure there won't be another Putin, holding power for over 20 years. https://t.co/sLxlRAa9jb

— Bryan MacDonald (@27khv) January 15, 2020

So, what happens next?

Why have Medvedev and his government resigned en masse?
Will the proposed reforms pass a referendum?
What is the overall aim behind these changes?
Does Putin plan to stay on past 2024, or is he strengthening the role of PM with an eye to taking that job, as some western commentators seem to think?
Who will be the next President of Russia?