Coronavirus: The only thing spreading “exponentially” is fear
Fewer people are sick each day, and yet there’s no sign of panic abating
Kit Knightly
Shall we start off this little overview with some cold hard facts? Not the ones about death rates, and the flu, and clinical diagnosis. We’ve done that. A lot.
No this is just simple maths; There are, according to official estimates, fewer people with coronavirus today, than yesterday.
That has been true every day since February 17th.
Here’s a graph showing global “active cases”:
Here’s a graph showing the number of daily new diagnoses with the number of daily recoveries:
Here’s a graph showing the daily change in death rate vs the daily change in recovery rate:
To sum up, according to official estimates, every day for over two weeks, fewer people have the disease, a smaller percentage of people are dying of the disease and MORE people are recovering from the disease.
Nobody in the media is talking about this.
Instead, we constantly see “coronavirus cases reach 95,000” in the headlines, without adding the corollary that 54,000 of those people are already better.
When the media aren’t ignoring the less-than-intimidating statistics, they’re trying to re-purpose them. The Atlantic recently published an article literally headlined Greece, where only 31 people have even been diagnosed (nobody has yet died).
California, ever a panic waiting to happen, is declaring a state of emergency over their 53 cases. One man has died, he was old and had “underlying health issues”. But still…emergency.
There’s money to be made in panic, of course. The IMF and World Bank, ever the harbingers or harmony and not at all opportunistic vultures, are ready to ride in on a white horse:
the International Monetary Fund and World Bank issued a joint statement saying they stood ready to help the worst affected countries by providing “emergency financing, policy advice, and technical assistance”.
Some good old “emergency finance” will help out any country that needs to protect itself from disease. Don’t worry, you’ll have it paid off in a few decades. Maybe.
In America, the same Senate so frequently asking Bernie Sanders how he intends to pay for his healthcare plans, just approved 8 BILLION dollars in emergency spending for the coronavirus. For those of you interested, that’s 56 million dollars per infected US citizen.
From what we know of bloated US government contracts, this money will be filed through lobbyists to medical supply and emergency measures companies, on whose board a surprising number of current and/or former senators sit.
In Italy, 7.5 billion Euros is being “made available” for “families and businesses” affected. The question of how much goes to families, and how much to businesses, is a key one. One the media will probably never answer.
And behind all of that, the authoritarians, mouths watering, drip poison into the public ear:
Harsh measures horrify civil libertarians, but they often save lives, especially when they are imposed in the early days.
That was in the New York Times.
Any coronavirus ‘lockdown’ would initially be voluntary
Adds The Guardian (they don’t say how long this “initial” voluntary period will last).
The Atlantic goes further, laying out plans to mitigate the “worst case scenario” covering information:
A single trusted source should inform the public what we know about COVID-19, what we don’t know, and what we’ll do to find out what we don’t know.
Emergency powers:
Congress must provide the FDA with the authority needed to prevent and mitigate medical supply-chain disruptions.
And quarantine:
Social distancing may become the norm, as governments and organizations close schools, halt mass transit, and cancel sports, entertainment, religious, and political gatherings. People could be quarantined in their homes, medical facilities, apartments, or dormitories.
It’s clear a certain type of person is in love with the world this lie-stoked fear will enable them to build. In some ways, they have already won.
The public is long past accepting social media companies working hand-in-hand with the state to block “misinformation” and “boost” official sources.
Further, even if the virus continues to decline, the powers that be – and their talking heads – will simply claim (as many already are) that China’s total authoritarian control saved lives.
That’s the real campaign here. A power play for draconian social control in the name of public health. For now, as the Guardian helpfully reminds us, it’s voluntary. But the implied threat behind that is obvious: As things get more serious, that will change.
After all, this is just a virus – and a comparatively minor one – if we’re happy to see our governments take draconian measures to halt this…what about more significant threats?
Why don’t we treat the climate crisis with the same urgency as coronavirus?
…asks Owen Jones in today’s Guardian. He is not alone.
Well, maybe one day soon we will Owen. Won’t that be nice.
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Well, here’s my two-pennyworth for what it’s worth: as with all new infectious diseases, covid-19, like ‘regular’ flu, will need to infect pretty much the entire human population, eventually. As the Russian virologist said, at first, it’s “the meeting of strangers”. That is to say, both the human immune system and the virus itself, adjust to each other when they meet, over time. We accommodate the virus and the virus adjusts (mutates/evolves) to survive within us but for the most part without killing us, else it guarantees its own extinction (no host, no virus).
Unfortunately, this particular virus attacks the old with underlying medical conditions and/or compromised immune systems particulary badly but what seems to be the case, is that it’s far less dangerous than SARS was. The consensus seems to be that it has a death rate of about 2% or so (SARS 10%) but unfortunately, concentrated in the most vulnerable.
What seems to be more important to our glorious political classes, is the impact it’s having on our capitalist economies! If nothing else, covid-19 is a wakeup call for all of us that we need to abandon capitalism, global supply chains and all the other detritus of late capitalism and build more modest, local economies, socialist economies of scale before it’s too late.
In addition, covid-19 surely sounds the alarm over global warming/climate change, so ironically (or not), the ‘positive’ side of covid-19 is the sharp reduction in greenhouse gases. After all, the BBC includes, in every broadcast, ostensibly about the virus, the dangers it poses to ‘GROWTH’. Wakey-wakey!
I guess it is worth tuppence!
Well that’s two pence more than yours
Of possible interest to some: ‘Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) fatality rate: WHO and media vs logic and mathematics.’
And then the author’s dashboard: https://avatorl.org/covid-19/
Go to p10 of 28 for ‘Forecast confirmed cases based on last week daily growth’. Under ‘Countries’ scroll down and click United Kingdom for a mathematically based forecast of the number of confirmed cases by 14 March.
No idea at all how valid this approach is in the real world but it seems that anything in 3 figures would be a result.
1140 on 14 March, so no result.
The forecast is now on p11 of the dashboard. Based on the weekly growth up to yesterday’s 801 cases, the forecast for 19 March is 3135. That forecast seems likely to rise when today’s increase is taken into account. But as last week’s forecast ran at around 25% below expectations, less than 3000 by 19 March could be considered a result.
Exponential growth in epidemics is clearly explained in this video.
3269 on 19 March, so no result.
It’s doubled in 2 days and trebled in 5 days.
This is where the exponential growth of Covid-19 in the UK starts to get scary. The forecast for 24 March on avatorl.org/covid-19 is 11,843.
So anything less than 10,000 would be a result.
A result? Another 1427 cases today but the accumulative total stands at 3766 less than avatorl.org’s forecast over the 5 days.
Expert modellers, e.g. John Burn-Murdoch and Adam Kucharski, say that for various reasons (including testing rates) the growth in accumulative cases is a less reliable indicator of a pandemic’s progression than the growth in accumulative deaths. As well as the highest number of new cases in a day, we’ve also had the highest number of deaths (87).
Based on the daily growth in deaths for the week up to 23 March (when total UK deaths stood at 336), avatorl.org forecast 434 deaths by today (actual total: 422) and 1561 by 29 March. But based on the current trebling rate (144 – 422 in the past 5 days), realistically it looks as if we could be looking at accumulative deaths standing at around 1200 by the 29th.
Deaths OF or deaths WITH?
And how diagnosed? PCR or just a chest CT or both?
Those numbers, all the numbers, are meaningless without knowing any of these factors
Firstly, I disagree with Admin1 that the numbers are meaningless without knowing the factors behind them. It would certainly be helpful to have the additional technical information, but in the midst of a crisis of these proportions it’s unlikely to be forthcoming. I maintain that the numbers are indicative of a pandemic that is growing exponentially and will continue do so because there’s currently no drug treatment, a shortage of vital equipment and PPE, no vaccination in the foreseeable future, and a woeful lack of government preparedness around the world (with the exception of countries such as Taiwan who learnt the lessons from SARS-1).
Whilst avatorl.org’s forecasts continue to be a little excessive, my own forecast of “around 1200 by the 29th” was close to the mark (1226).
The average daily growth rate over the past 3 days was 28.6% but it was down to 20.3% yesterday. Assuming it remains around 20% (which is still exponential) and doesn’t shoot back over the 30% nightmare threshold, there will have been over 3000 deaths by 3 April. avatar.org’s forecast for that date is 3527 but again, the lower number seems more realistic to me.
New York State looks to be in deep shit with an average daily growth rate of 36.7% over the past 3 days, and 40.3% yesterday. Even at an average of 25% over the next 5 days they’ll also be nudging 3000 deaths by 3 April, but at a 30% daily growth that will be over 4500.
In the USA as a whole the growth rate in accumulated deaths over the past 3 days has been an average of 25.4%. Assuming, optimistically, that it reduces to 20% over the next 5 days, there will have been over 6000 deaths by 3 April.
Currently 117 deaths per million have been attributed to Covid-19 in New York State (pop. 8.2 million; population density 159 people per sq.km). In the USA as a whole it’s currently just 7.5 deaths per million (pop. 328 million; pop. density 34 people per sq.km). In Italy (60.5 million; 200 per sq.km) it’s 178 deaths per million, in Spain (46.8 million; 93 per sq.km) it’s 141 deaths per million. In the UK (68 million; 274 per sq.km), where we’re running around 15 days behind the course of the outbreak in Italy, it’s currently 18 deaths per million.
Make of this what you will.
So avatorl.org’s forecast of 3527 UK deaths on 3 April proved reasonably accurate (actual: 3605).
In New York State the total deaths did indeed “nudge 3000 deaths” (actual: 2935) with an average 3-day growth rate of 23.7%.
In the USA there were “over 6000 deaths by 3 April” (actual: 6053) with an average 3-day growth rate of 24.2%.
There’s little to suggest that today’s totals won’t treble again by 8 April, i.e. UK: 8763, USA: 18159, NYS: 8805.
avatorl.org forecasts (now on p16 of his dashboard) UK: 11714 and USA: 23146.
They’re now going for socialist Portugal…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70?page=with:block-5e653e968f085f0b8d9448e5#block-5e653e968f085f0b8d9448e5
Trump was recently present at a political rally where someone in the audience has since tested positive. Rumour has it that he’s asked the NRA to call by the White House and shoot him in the foot because otherwise he just can’t help sneaking into the executive kitchen after bedtime tweets and microwaving himself a couple of the emergency Big Mac supplies. Could infect the chef from drool on the fridge or microwave door handles. Has contacted Skripal for useful tips.
Those who are pushing the story of this epidemic.
What other stories have they told us in the last 30 years?
All I want is a comparison of current seasonal flu stats v. Covid19. Can’t find it. As of today 3000+ deaths worldwide, yet 16000 deaths from ordinary flu, only in the US. And they’re telling me Covid is the killer? I don’t care about “death rate”. Rabies is ~99.9%. Are we cowering in our kennels? Ebola is 20%. Are we Out of Africa. I want to know the comparison. Otherwise how can they tell me it’s dangerous? Flu vaccine 29% effective, ie useless. Covid has no vaccine, so what?
Here in Smile Siam, 1 dead, 44 cases. No flu stats anywhere. But face masks and antiseptic very expensive. I smell a rat.
If I survive this plague, I’ll call tomorrow.
Reviews of past studies have found that, on average, the flu vaccine is about 50% to 60% effective for healthy adults who are between 18 and 64 years old.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/flu/in-depth/flu-shots/art-20048000
So, even with 60% effectiveness 16,000 Americans died, meaning that Covid19 “unleashed” has killed fewer, yet its fame (infamy) dominates the headlines.
My point is that this plague is vastly overstated for political and commercial purposes. Eg, Deaths from heart disease 500,000, cancer 500,000, etc – 10,000 per day! and not a word in the news. Bee stings – 89 (2017) but no-one warned me!
The 145 Italian deaths was shocking, until you find their ages – almost all > 75. Can we compare all >75 yr old deaths to get a better picture?
Again, the virulence and mortality of Covid19 has not been compared to other known “killers” so we can’t form an opinion let alone take a position on its importance.
The overwhelming majority of the flu deaths were of people who were not vaccinated, so your argument doesn’t hold water.
You said the vaccine is 40-60% , so ~40% of those vaccinated still got flu. How many of the vaccinated died? How many of the unvaccinated caught flu? How many of those died? Perhaps my argument is now better framed.
Also, your sources for the unvaccinated?
For example:
Source:
https://www.aappublications.org/news/2019/11/08/mmwr110819
Do you note the words ‘associated with’? That means there was a co-morbidity, another cause of death. These kids were not dying of flu – very few people do. They were dying of something else PLUS flu. What that something else was is a big factor not discussed.
How can someone who distrusts every arm of government and sees what they are doing to control populations possibly be in favor of mass vaccine programs?
Note that even in cases where the vaccine didn’t prevent people from catching the flu, the vaccine considerably mitigated the severity of the flu compared to the severity of the flu in unvaccinated people.
Non of the MSM is looking for comparative data on mortality amongst >75, or the locations of these death. They are only interested in fear-mongering, needed to cover up financial failure.
1. Who made the estimates?
2.Who funded them?
3. Why would any healthy person under 65 get vaccinated for the regular flu?
“I smell a rat.”
Not as keenly as the rat smells you.
Consider the possibility that this virus gets into the population in many regions as just another one of the endemic seasonal flu varieties. And further, that it’s possible that’s not by accident.
As someone who has the virus, I’m in a position to shed some light on some points that have come up.
The thing goes straight for your lungs. Never caught a “flu” that was so focused on the lungs.
Videos of people collapsing unconscious on the street are consistent with the extreme fatigue. You don’t see rich people collapsing because they can afford not to go to work when they start to feel ill.
This is a tough bug. But I believe the guy who posted Vitamin C info, has the right idea. I’m on my 2nd kilogram of the stuff.
Are the fears exaggerated? Is it being over-hyped?
I’m basically a germaphobe. I did more than most people would do to prevent catching this thing.
And I got it anyway. No way would I have caught a normal flu taking all the precautions I took. It’s fucking contagious.
I agree with everyone who said you have to analyze China numbers separately from the overseas.
All that matters is the rate of increase, not number of cases. I see evidence around me that China’s efforts have paid off, and the transmission rate has slowed for now.
Being paranoid at a national level is fundamentally about protecting the disabled and the elderly.
Well I’m convinced.
The “thing” went straight for your lungs. Sorry, individual anecdotal story is not evidence. Bring me 100 more corpses.
So far:
2,959 deaths
Hubei Mainland China
233 deaths
Italy
145 deaths
Iran
44 deaths
South Korea
22 deaths
Henan Mainland China
15 deaths
King County, WA US
13 deaths
Heilongjiang Mainland China
11 deaths
France
10 deaths
Spain
8 deaths
Beijing Mainland China
7 deaths
Guangdong Mainland China
6 deaths
Japan
6 deaths
Anhui Mainland China
6 deaths
Chongqing Mainland China
6 deaths
Hainan Mainland China
6 deaths
Hebei Mainland China
6 deaths
Shandong Mainland China
6 deaths
“Diamond Princess” cruise ship
4 deaths
Iraq
4 deaths
Hunan Mainland China
3 deaths
Shanghai Mainland China
3 deaths
Sichuan Mainland China
3 deaths
Tianjin Mainland China
3 deaths
Xinjiang Mainland China
2 deaths
Hong Kong Hong Kong
2 deaths
Gansu Mainland China
2 deaths
Guangxi Mainland China
2 deaths
Guizhou Mainland China
2 deaths
Yunnan Mainland China
2 deaths
UK
1 deaths
New South Wales Australia
1 deaths
Western Australia Australia
1 deaths
Fujian Mainland China
1 deaths
Inner Mongolia Mainland China
1 deaths
Jiangxi Mainland China
1 deaths
Jilin Mainland China
1 deaths
Liaoning Mainland China
1 deaths
Shaanxi Mainland China
1 deaths
Zhejiang Mainland China
1 deaths
Netherlands
1 deaths
Philippines
1 deaths
San Marino
1 deaths
Switzerland
1 deaths
Taiwan Taiwan
1 deaths
Thailand
1 deaths
Placer County, CA US
1 deaths
Snohomish County, WA US
Verified how, and who by ?
Appunto! Exactement! Exactly!
What a vast consumption of space used to plaster unfounded statistics. Looks suspiciously propagandistic.
Probably, but doesn’t answer my question: Covid19 compared to Seasonal Flu. 16,000+ US deaths for annual flu – no panic, no quarantine, no “news”. Half a dozen Covid19 (love the name, very sci-fi) dead and the country falls, China stops with 3000 dead, Italy collapses with 150 dead old folks?
US road deaths 40,000, opioid suicides 50,000, homicides 5,000, yet the country has not collapsed every year!
I smell a PR rat.
If someone shows antibodies for the CV19 disease would it be recorded as the cause of death or would the underlying health condition be the cause? Just wondering if CV19 infections are the cause or a background factor?
“Sorry, individual anecdotal story is not evidence.”
At an individual patient level, all reports of the progress of an unwellness, for all forms of unwellness of any sort, are all ‘just’ anecdotal evidence, whether reported via/by medical professionals or directly by patients. What you are asking for are correlations, where r damned near =1 (or some meaningless, arbitrary number of individual statistics such as 100, which is even worse). In a highly variable, extremely complex organism such as a hominid, you won’t, in most cases, find it, which is why those on the front line of medicine–which might better be called the primary referral line of medicine–i.e. those such as ‘general practitioners’ (also known as family doctors, house doctors, etc) have the hardest job in the medical field, attracting the least praise and most blame for, respectively, apparently correct and apparently faulty diagnoses or onward referrals (as well as, often, the greatest exposure to opportunistic infections) in the entire medical profession, Unsung heroes.
But, to get back to your uninformed confusion of ‘a statistic’ with ‘statistics’,
Good luck, C.
Hope you get over it soon.
I don’t know about China.
Maybe you or someone else can help me with this – The Dog That Didn’t Bark.
Supposedly it’s being brought under control in China now.
Supposedly the number of new cases has tailed off from 4,000 a day to 100 a day, and it’s all over bar the shouting.
If this is true, that’s great.
But if it is, I’d expect to see MSM pieces on things getting back to normal in Wuhan.
People cheerfully going about their business in Wuhan High Street.
Happy Chinese workers getting back to the sweatshop and beavering away, grafting to turn out more plastic widgets for Poundland and Walmart.
Interviews with Dr. Wong and Dr. Wang about how they’d defeated the deadly disease.
But there hasn’t been anything. Nada. Zilch. Nothing.
Which suggests to me that’s not the current reality.
Alternatively, the Sinophobic MSM could be revelling to show the opposite.
Scoops from Sid Scurvy, Ace Reporter, showing people keeling over and dying in the street in China.
To me, this is the dog that isn’t barking.
Make of it what you will.
Go on then CH1. Which test was used to confirm ? Which country are you in ?
The fallacy of otherwise of this article’s main contention will be determined by the ‘growth factor of daily new cases’, particularly of those outside China.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-growth-outchina
This suggests that the rate of transmission is presently on the borderline of exponential growth.I hope I’m wrong but my money is on an imminent upswing.
Scroll up for an explanation of how the growth factor is calculated.
“This suggests that the rate of transmission is presently…”
Very useful link, especially in combination with the other sections than “#case-growth-outchina” (scroll down for a list). Thanks. As time passes and observations proceed, I would be interested to see, in particular, the numbers for another factor and the (lab?) results of a second:
.
“Very useful link…”
Actually present in Kit’s article and the source of his graphs, but not there made explicit as a repository of useful raw statistics.
“This suggests that the rate…”
See “sequential analysis”.
Yes it has the potential to see further growth – outside China – which could lead to significant deaths. We do need to keep this under control as much as possible. I don’t want my elderly relatives falling victim to it and neither would anyone else.
You’ve not met my family … 🙂
WHO COVID-19 Situation Report 47, 7 March.
Figure 2. Epidemic curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported outside of China (n=21,110), by date of report and WHO region through 07 March 2020.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200307-sitrep-47-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=27c364a4_4
I think the title of this piece is wrong. It’s not the panic that isn’t abating. It’s the panic mongering. The MSM has metaphorically been jabbing the public with cattle prodders. And they have no intention of stopping.
Many comments but nobody is pointing out an obvious fault on the reasoning of this article.
“To sum up, according to official estimates, every day for over two weeks, fewer people have the disease, a smaller percentage of people are dying of the disease and MORE people are recovering from the disease.”
Figures are not just figures, the way you look at them matters. If you want to give people some meaningful understanding of what is happening, you need to leave China’s figures out. China has basically shut down the country, stopped the economy, using martial law to contain the spread of the virus. They are doing this with good results, which means there are many more thousands of people recovering from the disease every day, than there are new affected people. Being the number of people tested positive in China still much higher than the number of people affected worldwide, this means that China’s lockdown has a huge weight on the figures you mentioned. Try to leave China out and the complete opposite of your above statement is true. Every day, several thousand more people have the disease. Just in Italy, if you leave out the people who recovered, today there are 1145 more people who contracted the disease than yesterday. And it’s not the case that they are not taking strong measures there: schools have been closed for two weeks in Northern Italy, and for one week in the entire country. Public events have been banned for a while, entire cities put in lockdown.
Mention any country, even just one, apart from China, where today there are less people affected by the virus than yesterday.
You shouldn’t count China because you wouldn’t count on any other country to take the measures China is taking – or would you? in that case, the argument of your article, condemning “a power play for draconian social control in the name of public health”, would be obviously pointless, as that is the state of life in China, now more than ever. I hope I’m missing something here!
Isn’t it strange that parts of Italy and Spain are now going into ‘lock-down’, areas that are highly rebellious against the Empire.
I don’t know about Spain, but that part of Italy that is going into lock-down is very much with the Empire.
“In March 2019, Italy signed a memorandum of understanding with China on the BRI. This culminated a long-standing economic relationship spanning decades, that was punctuated by finance minister Giovanni Tria’s August 2018 visit to China. Although Tria may have quickened the process, Italy’s political class were already in agreement about the merits of deepening relations with Beijing.”
https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/05/20/why-did-italy-embrace-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-79149
“Chinese President Xi Jinping just returned from a visit to Europe to promote the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s unprecedented plan to expand its geopolitical reach. As Rome and Beijing signed a major deal on the BRI, several European leaders expressed alarm about the agreement’s ability to divide Europe.”
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/chinas-belt-and-road-gets-win-italy
CFR-Council on Foreign Relations, ie Imperial agit-prop. They can all join the BRI, the only divisive force being the USA.
“Resisting pressure from Washington and Brussels, who fear the already heavily indebted and economically uncertain NATO member might be walking into a debt trap, Italy on March 23rd became the first G7 country to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Consequently, this act throws the unity of the G7 into question and intensifying tensions between Italy and its neighbors. China and Italy signed over two dozens accords worth as much as €22 billion.”
https://medium.com/goods-services/chinas-belt-and-road-gets-a-massive-victory-in-italy-ecaf32cb7789
No Chinese ‘debt trap’ exists. That is a lie peddled by the same scum who brought the very real debt traps laid by the IMF and World Bank, for decades. The hypocrisy and projection is stupendous.
Thanks for making that succinct clear headed argument.
I’ve just read all OffG’s articles on this topic and they are not making sense. In fact they are rather arrogantly claiming to have outsmarted the world’s most experienced epidemiologists, which is quite a stupid position to take. [ No. We are simply pointing out the official data that contradicts the panic memes. This person on the other hand is merely using appeals to authority to undermine these data -ed]
In one article they claim that the Spanish Flu killed 10-20% of those who contracted it and provided a link which clearly states,
“It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected,[2] and the World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died” [ False. The Wikipedia and CDC articles we linked to both state that 500 million people were infected with Spanish Flu and 50-100 million died. 50-100million is 10-20% of 500 million. The 2-3% figure relates to mortality per global population, and is wrongly cited as a cfr. -ed]
The current (official) death rate of Covid is over 3%.
In the following article Kit claims that,
If the disease carries on its current trajectory, by the end of that six months roughly 7200 people will have been infected, around 250 of whom will have died.
Kit doesn’t understand exponential growth it would seem. He is not alone. [ This is trolling. The growth is not currently exponential, but this commenter endeavours to imply it is without saying so. -ed]
Later Catte compared like with, well, not like,
Of course if only those who were seriously ill with Covid were hospitalised then the relevant mortality rate would be much higher, and if the virus gets a hold in countries with poor health care systems we will see this. Most people with flu never go to hospital, they are not quarantined.[ Idiotic. Most people with (mild) flu don’t go to hospital and most people with (mild) coronavirus-19 also don’t go to hospital – hence the skewing of the current cfr rates. Or is this person suggesting there is some magic way in which every single case of COVID-19 can be traced and detected, even if it only involves a sniffle? -ed]
At what point will OffG concede that this is a serious outbreak that if left to run its course would kill many hundred of thousands of people- many more than pandemic flu. [ We will concede it if/when it becomes a fact – ed]
It is fair to tackle the fearporn of the media, and to ask if there is a power play taking place, but the implication from these articles and OffG tweets is that the danger of Covid19 is being blown out of all proportion. I cannot see that it is. If it spreads as a flu spreads and kills a much higher proportion of sufferers then some sort of response is warranted.
Couldn’t agree more, Guido. And the way I look at them is, “What supports any figures in any way at all.”
I’ve just become acquainted with the comments of Tony who is obviously very knowledgeable about viruses and he says the virus cannot be identified in alleged sufferers. So right off the bat, we have a massive problem with the figures, don’t we? Virus cannot be isolated to be used to identify sufferers.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/02/29/media-whipping-covid19-panic-to-unprecedented-heights/#comment-123893
Then we have the problem that we have not been shown anyone we can believe to be a genuine sufferer. We have been shown people falling flat on their faces, lying on the ground outside and in hospitals and crying uncontrollably. We have also been shown someone who claims she is asymptomatic but her interview contains a number of anomalies.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/05/coronavirus-the-only-thing-spreading-exponentially-is-fear/#comment-124389
For an hypothesis to be correct every single piece of available evidence must support it and favour it over any competing hypotheses.
The evidence favours the hypothesis:
The alleged coronavirus pandemic is, in fact, a live pandemic exercise where they slip anomalies into their story to show that it is not real
over the hypothesis:
The coronavirus pandemic reported in the media is real (to whichever degree)
Hands down!
It makes no sense to believe any figures at all.
Agreed, the numbers cannot make sense as the test for diagnosis is faulty. And if you combine a faulty test (that sometimes turns out positive just by mistake) multiplied by the number of people who are tested for COVID 19, you get your exponential increase of people tested positive for COVID 19
Btw, the comment: ‘ In fact they are rather arrogantly claiming to have outsmarted the world’s most experienced epidemiologists, which is quite a stupid position to take.’ is a quite stupid comment also known as the argument from authority.
I am also amazed that all these people who seem to know that COVID 19 is for real do not support extra experiments that can make clear whether this is COVID 19 is for real or a hoax, that is by testing a large unselected group of individuals on COVID 19 follow those who are tested positive through time and calculate the true death rate.
It is as if some commenters prefer to believe in bullshit, since bullshit is so much more interesting to believe in than the usual routine of normal life.
“Figures are not just figures, the way you look at them matters.”
See https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/05/coronavirus-the-only-thing-spreading-exponentially-is-fear/#comment-124773
That is NOT ‘..the state of life in China, now more than ever’. You’ve been well brainwashed by the racist and Orientalist Sinophobic propaganda, that’s all.
Acte 69 here in France today, the 69th consecutive week of massive protests (against neoliberalism) all across the country. Here’s a shot of the protest in Paris today…
https://twitter.com/CharlesBaudry/status/1236268811646631936
The point I’m trying to make here is that no one on this protest is wearing a mask to protect from the Frankenstein flu; and I can testify, as someone who lives in rural France, that no one here is wearing masks, either, and there’s been no panic buying, and they’re still all doing the shaking hands and kissing on the cheek stuff. In otherwords, just about all the French are treating covid 19 for the total rollocks it is, and they know it’s just being used to clamp down on dissent.
The only time French protestors do wear face masks is when they are being hit with CRS tear gas, as happened in Lyon today (there were also similar scenes today in Bordeaux and Toulouse)…
https://twitter.com/AlessandroCere7/status/1236326002541944833
Obviously those awfully concerned media guardians are going to have to try harder to protect our non-compliant ungrateful public. I suggest they put the first episode of “Walking Dead” on a continuous loop and sell it as a documentary.
Wearing masks doesn’t protect one against Covid-19, as all the well-informed know.
Does wearing a mask protect one from bullshit?
It certainly cannot protect one from your bullshit.
Ah but will it protect me from your puerile little hi-tech raspberry loops?
What you think are my “puerile little hi-tech raspberry loops” is just the stench of your own pathological flatulence.
Shall we abandon this not-very-useful exchange of insults?
It worked!
Actually, when worn correctly (which includes no facial hair) some facemasks do provide “a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier”, as The Guardian has rightly stated, in line with the limited research evidence that’s available and the DoH’s own 2014 evidence base review ‘The Use of Facemasks and Respirators during an Influenza Pandemic’. This states on p49, para 2, second sentence:
“The evidence base for community settings suggests that face masks, when combined with hand-hygiene practices often provide some level of protection, more so than when just one intervention was applied independently”, and cites 3 research papers that support this.
Ya think?
Influenza and Covid-19 are two entirely different things.
Think again:
Agreed that there’s a difference between flu and coronavirus but their primary infection pathways are similar, i.e. airborne particles. Whilst flimsy surgical masks provide little or no protection, N95/FFP2 and N99/FFP3 masks may provide some.
Again, that’s an excellent video you posted but I don’t think Dr L’vov would disagree that – used correctly, and in combination with other PPE, e.g. goggles and disposable gloves, and social distancing etc – N95/99 masks may provide more protection than using nothing.
“Wearing masks doesn’t protect one against Covid-19, as all the well-informed know.”
Yes and no. Ordinary surgical masks (gauze with a couple of bits of elastic to go around the ears) are pretty good at keeping infections of the wearer away from others (which is why they are adequate for surgery where only or very much mostly the patient is at particular risk of infection), but for general use they have to be put on and taken off correctly. Properly fitted, certified respirators are much better and–except for those with exhalation bypass valves–work both ways, but are bothersome to keep well fitted, unsuitable for some people (e.g. those with breathing difficulties or even just beards) and are not easy to put up with for many others. Surgical respirators, which are designed to keep both medics and patients protected from each other, have all the problems of ordinary respirators and then as many again.
So the bottom line is: ordinary surgical masks are a good social measure for situations where you (might) have been in contact with an airborne infection but are (still) asymptomatic or you have only mild symptoms of an airborne infection that can have a more serious presentation in vulnerable others; unvalved respirators are good for personal and social protection but, for many, problematic to wear; exhalation-valved respirators aren’t particularly social but provide pretty good personal protection but still present wearability issues for some; while surgical respirators aren’t worth the effort unless you’re at high risk of flying bodily fluids. In all cases eye protection (goggles, whatever) improve personal protection unless maximum unmediated vision is required.
Full disclosure: I (=we) have had a supply of surgical masks, respirators and goggles at the back of a cupboard, specifically for infection control, for decades. Never used them. Yet.
You obviously didn’t watch the video I posted above.
“You obviously didn’t watch the video I posted above.”
I did watch the video above, and I have just wasted 18 minutes of my life–now as scarce for me as it is for the old guy in the interview (except he got paid for it) with whom I am in no disagreement whatsoever, nor vice versa as far as I could hear–watching it again, just in case I had missed something on first viewing, which I hadn’t. Gee thanks.
As a postscriptum, a question: why would you suppose that when I wrote “surgical masks” (twice) I meang the opportunistic crap the old guy notes as being “sold around here” and distinguishes from the properly constructed surgical masks they are apparently distributing (and running out of) in China? Admittedly, I was a bit perfunctory in the brief, accompanying denotation, limiting it to their outward appearance, but… Bad knuckle day?
And another: why do you post a video that RT grossly mistrails as “Masks won’t protect you” despite the clear distinction the old guy makes between cheap knockoffs and clinical quality masks, and use it as support for your erroneous contention that “[w]earing masks doesn’t protect one against Covid-19, as all the well-informed know” when wearing a surgical mask significantly helps protect other persons around you (not so much yourself) against almost all airborne infections–flu, rhinovirus, whatever–as your ancient hero specifically states?
Well blow me down with a bat feather. I’ve just come across this post from you in another sub-thread, quoted here in its entirety:
that states exactly what I wrote and your geriatric hero spoke.
So it transpires that far from not watching the video you posted (fucking twice), the bottom line is you didn’t read the post I wrote. Maybe you should stick with up and down votes for a while. Until you get your mind back in gear.
La France rurale n’a vraiment rien en commun avec la France urbaine.
Vierotchka, that’s what the gilets jaunes are all about.
Ignore them at your peril.
Their battles have nothing to do with me, neither can they affect me.
C’est la meme en Angleterre, en Allemagne et dans les Etats Unis.
Here, let me help you. You should have written “C’est la même chose en Angleterre, en Allemagne, et aux États-Unis.”
J’ai bu trop de vin rouge ce soir. Merci!
J’ose éspèrer que vous n’étiez pas seul…
Le vin rouge, ainsi que le vin blanc et le rosé, requiert qu’on soit en bonne compagnie avec quelqu’un du sexe opposé, sinon, boire seul est bien trop triste…
Idiot.
Indeed you are!
As a matter of fact,
Rare video: Life in coronavirus-stricken China (Full show)
19 Feb 2020
Wuhan, China remains on lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19, also known as novel coronavirus. Most bridges and roads remain blocked in Hubei province and some residents are chafing at tightened controls as authorities struggle to contain the spread of the virus. RT America’s Michele Greenstein reports on what life is like at the epicenter of the outbreak sweeping the nation, where citizens endure mandatory face masks, quarantine, and scuffles with police. Then “Boom Bust” co-host Christy Ai joins Rick Sanchez to share her insights. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warns that an attack on Idlib is “imminent” as Syrian forces push into the country’s last major rebel stronghold. Former Pentagon official Michael Maloof shares his expertise. RT America’s Trinity Chavez reports on the pipeline protests sweeping Canada. SpaceX has announced that it will fly four privately paying space tourists to orbit in their Crew Dragon capsule. RT America’s Sayeh Tavangar reports. Plus, RT America’s Steve Christakos joins to discuss the 2020 Laureus World Sports Awards.
Fake rubbish.
Environment. Nothing else.
I just found a very interesting video with regard to Covid-19 and Russia:
Coronavirus | ‘Masks won’t protect you’
5 Mar 2020
*FILMED ON FEB.10th
Virologist Dmitriy L’vov talks about the dangers of current #Coronavirus outbreak and its origins
Based on my extremely limited but gradually growing knowledge of coronaviruses, Dr. L’vov provides a really excellent summary of the situation with the SARS-CoV-2 strain, albeit from a month ago. His comments re: “experts” on talkshows apply equally to those in these columns who lack knowledge of virology.
Yes, we need to educate ourselves on what these viruses really are. A good starting place for us lay-folk is “Spillover” by David Quammen (2012).
“To put the matter in its starkest form: Human-caused ecological pressures and disruptions are bringing animal pathogens ever more into contact with human populations, while human technology and behavior are spreading those pathogens ever more widely and quickly.”
“Will the Next Big One be caused by a virus? Will the Next Big One come out of a rainforest or a market in southern China? Will the Next Big One kill 30 or 40 million people?”
FYI: I see the headline tells us that worldwide there are 100,000 victims of the coronavirus. Meanwhile I read that:
Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study – MedicineNet
Kinda puts the epidemic into perspective.
Apples and oranges.
Excuse me? It’s not an equivilence, it’s a comparison between the media frenzy over coronavirus and the lack of media frenzy over deaths from flu (or for that matter, starvation, or deaths from malaria or dirty water).
More of the silly pictures.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
Does this qualify for exponential? It is the number of confirmed cases in Switzerland from February 24 with one case, until March 5.
Source: https://www.tdg.ch/suisse/L-epidemie-se-developpe-vite-Voici-comment-sen-premunir/story/11510374
Today, there are more than 228 confirmed cases, and counting.
Just asking.
https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/status/1236249864473894914
No that’s not an exponential curve, it’s a low fluctuation with a spike at the end.
Why the sudden increase on March 6? How many cases of flu have been diagnosed/hospitalised over the same period? Context matters.
I’d have thought that going from one case to 228 cases in 16 days is exponential.
The incubation period of Covid-19 is between 7 and 14 days, and during incubation, people can infect others, which might explain the very rapid and rather spectacular increase of confirmed cases and the sudden increase on March 6 and the subsequent huge increase on March 7 – this implies that this trend and rapid pace could continue and result in a huge number of cases. I did say “could”, not “will”.
The 228 cases I mentioned are confirmed Covid-19 cases, separate from influenza cases – the ‘flu virus is a wholly different kind of virus from the Covid-19 virus, the cases of both are not confused.
Of course you’re entitled to your opinion, Vierotchka, but it’s wrong. Exponential graphs don’t fluctuate on a low level then suddenly uptick at the end. An exponential increase is one where the rate of increase itself increases. If that uptick were to continue, if – say – tomorrow the number of new cases were to double, then the next day quadruple, you would have an exponential function. But as yet you don’t.
Note – exponential does not just mean ‘getting bigger very suddenly or quite fast’.
And we are not suggesting flu cases are being confused with COVID19 (though absent PCR and antibody testing this IS an obvious possibility), we are suggesting comparing death rates of both diseases in the same place and time, to aid with perspective.
I think you demonstrate here a misunderstanding. The rate of increase does not change in an exponential function. A 2% increase per day is an exponential function if the ‘2%’ refers to a portion of those who have the virus and thereby is a compounding increase. In technical defintion (sorry, from Wiki) :
It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself.
If it doubles (unchecked) every day then in 30 days that is a billion people.
There are a ton of programmable scientific calculators of different flavours for Android in the Google Play Store and there may be some in Apple’s equivalent. At least a few of the Android ones are both good and free. If one that suits does linear regression to calculate the parameters of a best fit straight line (Y= a + bX) to a set of data points then it’s easy to apply simple functions to the inputs to get the best fit of various basic curves (exponential, log, whatever). Programs are available for some of them that run the data against a bunch of such curves and identify which fit best (if any). There are other routines vailable to fit other regular or arbitrary curves but they generally require a bit more mathematical discrimination to choose which to use to avoid cooking up a load of nonsense.
exponential
adjective
1.
(of an increase) becoming more and more rapid.
“the social security budget was rising at an exponential rate”
2.
MATHEMATICS
of or expressed by a mathematical exponent.
“an exponential curve”
See also:
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/exponential
https://www.yourdictionary.com/exponential
Etc.
And still more garbage from the resident sophist.
No. This is wrong.
The rate remains the same, the amount of increase increases.
A constant, compounding 1% increase per year is an exponential function.
Martenson again:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/video/crash-course-chapter-3-exponential-growth-3/
Hi Crank. As your above video link points out, it really depends on whether you are describing an exponential function by rate or by amount. I honestly don’t think anyone is in disagreement about what an exponential curve is.
I think it’s worth us all noting that, although the piece quotes ‘exponential’ in the title, it doesn’t use exponential growth in its argument, nor does the data displayed seem to demonstrate exponential growth. I think we’re in danger of being distracted by semantics.
Click on the graph.
“Click on the graph.”
Hello Vierotchka –
While the graph, over all, shows what might be an exponential curve laid along the top of the topmost section of the vertical bars, you would need a far more nuanced understanding of statistics than you’ve deployed so far to make any valid claims about exponentiality and the incidence of COVID-19 outside of China (quite apart from the actual raw numbers: a lot of curves that look as though they could be exponential or logarithmic–its inverse–or parabolic or power or whatever, turn out not to be when the raw numbers on which a visualisation is based are analyzed numerically): that is if you want to avoid ending up in the damned lies cupboard at the back of the statistics department.
One important consideration is the choice or definition of the scope of the statistical analysis to hand, so as to get a properly representative sample or to avoid mixing or conflating discrete ‘populations’, etc.
For such reasons, whatever the top of the tops of the graph you present seems to show by way of exponentiality, in valid statistical terms it doesn’t. What it shows is an artifact of the visualization, not a statistically meaningful exponential distribution, or, rather, not a statistically meaningful exponential distribution in terms of the most-of-the-world population you are advancing it to represent. This paragraph could easily be expanded to a lengthy monograph, so to settle for a quite small example/illustration:
Take the grey ‘Other’ countries. For quite some time that could be part of the long, apparently flat portion of an exponential curve until, suddenly, it diasappears completely. So remove those from the graph and you already have something much closer to a straight line. Or take the orange ‘Western Pacific’. That’s essentially two staight lines: a rapidly rising straight line followed immediately by a horizontal straight line. Clearly not a prima facie exponential distribution. So remove those from graph. Now what does the curve at the top of the tops look like? Well whatever it is, it’s not an exponential. Maybe it’s just a more or less arbitrary polynomial, on which no meaningful interpolations or extrapolations can be based. And, whatever information it conveys, part of that is that until there’s a clear rethink of the scope of the data in terms of coherent ‘populations’ and homogeneous samples–whether chosen or mandated in some known ways that allow for meaningful weighting and subsequent interpretation of a statistical analysis–then a positing of any statement on statistical distribution is necessarily extremely tentative; whether the intent is epidemiological or polemical. At some point, somewhere in our assignation of ‘exponential’ to the appearance of the graph that is meant to, and in a sense does, describe the growth of a phenomenon that is a mainly airborne disease of limited infectious geoscope on the interpersonal level at which its causative virus operates, we have gotten our statistical knickers in a twist. But then, so have those who say: “look–seasonal flu kills many more”. Though butting us yet more buts: that’s a different story…
Robbobbobin
1865 deaths attibuted to pneumonia in Switzerland in 2017:
https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/switzerland-influenza-pneumonia
Vierotschka’s graph covers about 10 days. During that time, if deaths were evenly distributed through time, then 10/366 * 1865 deaths would have occurred.
= 50,95
Given the time of year, I think we could usually expect perhaps 80 to 100 deaths from pneumonia in Switzerland in this 10 day period, and of course thousands of cases.
1 alleged death in Switzerland from ‘covid-19’ so far – and only 214 cases.
Agreed – context matters.
The reason why you see an increase, is because people go to GPs now the moment they start to sneeze, where they would usually not do that for a normal common cold (which is coronavirus). At GPs they now all get tested for COVID 19, leading to both more diagnoses of milder cases of COVID 19 and false positive cases of COVID 19 (given that COVID 19 isn’t easy to diagnose and in 30-60% leads to false positive tests when a PCR test is performed).
What this will lead to is that the death rate for COVID 19 will go down, as you can already see in NL with >120 cases and 1 person who died with COVID 19 (an 86 year old man).
If you are really interested in how to tackle COVID 19, you should read my comments below, where I explain that in order to see if COVID 19 is for real or a nothing burger. To find an answer to that question, you need to screen a large sample of consecutive and unselected individuals for COVID 19, and then follow those who tested positive for some time in order to calculate the true death rate.
I am sure you are not into creating mass hysteria as you usually give sane comments, so my advice to you is to give that proposed experiment a thought.
The statistical term that I allude to is known as suspicion bias. You can find more info about that sort of bias here:
https://catalogofbias.org/biases/diagnostic-suspicion-bias/
I went to the supermarket SB’s y’day and the shelves with the loo roll and paper towels as well as the shelves stocking dettol etc. were empty. This was early afternoon. It made me think and I believe the people able to shop at such times when most people are working at the retirees and largely boomer generation. This kind of makes sense because at large part of this demographic will be the ‘target’ audience.
At the same time I travel through the City everyday and I have not noticed one person wearing a face mask or acting differently.
Two very different reactions.
The people with more time on their hands largely consumers of daytime media which has been wall to wall saturation for the last 10 days or so are the people panicking. Maybe because they will be the ones most affected. Everyone else just getting on with the lives.
Facemasks do not protect from Covid-19. People who have Covid-19 protect others who don’t by wearing a facemask.
Coughs and Sneezes Spread Diseases,
Legacy Media Makes Hysteria.
To reiterate a question I asked below, if this is all an elaborate hoax, to serve the interests of the western neoliberal empire, then why are the governments of China, Russia, and Iran going along with it?
https://www.instagram.com/p/B9UNfaNBEdd/
Because they are all friends and are all in favor of hoaxes that may lead to more self-imposed austerity and less freedom amongst their own population or that of others. What is not to like?
It’s a big club…
Of course, this is guess work.
Better than guessing is demanding a study (Which methods I outlined below) that once and for all solves the issue as to whether COVID 19 is mass hysteria (whether deliberately created or not) or a complete nothing burger.
BS
Because governments never lie right?
Or perhaps you have a better idea?
It doesn’t seem to be a hoax to me. There is fearmongering for sure, but that is what the media do always with everything.
I mentioned the apparent lack of understanding of exponential functions in Kit’s analysis.
Here is a good, short video explaning how almost all of us so often get this wrong:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/video/crash-course-chapter-4-compounding-is-the-problem-2/
Oh well that”s OK then.
Could you explain specifically how you think exponential functions are misrepresented in our piece? If you can do so successfully we will of course offer a correction – which will present a challenge as exponential functions are not discussed or evaluated at all in the entire piece.
The piece’s very title refers to exponential growth (of fear not virus).
We all know that viruses spread according to an exponential function, unless checked by extreme measures (quarantine, testing, ramped up hygiene – for example).
Such measures are unlikely pass into practice without a lot of media coverage.
Saying that, I concede that it is absurd not to agree with the underlying basic premise of this website project: that the media functions as a psychological warfare machine, seemingly determined to induce fear around just about every topic if covers. This however, doesn’t mean that the scientists and statisticians who have modelled how the virus could likely spread according to several variants of exponential growth curves, and who are well versed in the human fallibility around projections along an exponential curve, are all fear mongering lunatics with a political agenda.
The main point of Kit’s argument seems to be that there are relatively few cases of infections and death at the moment and that therefore the media response is so disproportionate that it can only be explained by undisclosed motives.
I argue that a more informed consideration of how viruses spread (i.e. case, case, cluster, explosion) explains at least some of the measures and precautions (and media coverage) taking place.
If we imagine a sane and healthy political/ media system and put it in the situation of a viral pandemic in a highly mobile global world, what might the expected response be? ‘To wait until the Yankee stadium is 5 feet deep in water’ before doing anything (to quote the video above) ?
Can we all be clear that OffG is not suggesting it’s ‘all an elaborate hoax’. We are merely and consistently pointing out the official data on virulence and mortality that does not support the fear narratives being promoted.
Russia would be unwise not to take basic precautions, given the unstable nature of the forces opposed to it. Today’s false alarm may morph into tomorrow’s unhinged bio attack. China’s role is more difficult to assess.
China’s role is more difficult to assess.
Indeed. Presumably, people in China get the flu all the time, and a few of them even die from it. If this illness is no worse than usual, why would they shut down a city of ten million people?
Unless they suspected or knew that there’s something highly unusual about it, not necessarily the current mortality rate.
It’s easy to construct explanations for why China, Russia, Iran, and NATO might want to hoax their domestic populations. What’s harder to understand, is why they would all simultaneously collaborate in the same hoax.
Whose interests are being served?
I think that you make a good point Milo, and I read no reply that addresses it.
May I suggest that the crisis is real and will serve the globalist creditor class who are shafted if this system continues on its trajectory into uncontrolled decline.
They are putting the gun to our heads and will unveil their prefered changes.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Russia has taken rigorous precautions.
I wouldn’t say an “elaborate” hoax. Seems pretty crude to me.
Hystories: Hysterical Epidemics and Modern Media
by Elaine Showalter
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/881779.Hystories
Hysteria and “modern” illnesses
Showalter’s controversial take on illnesses such as dissociative identity disorder (formerly called multiple personality disorder), Gulf War syndrome and chronic fatigue syndrome in her book Hystories: Hysterical Epidemics and Modern Media (1997) has angered some in the health profession and many who suffer from these illnesses. Writing in the New York Times, psychologist Carol Tavris commented that “In the absence of medical certainty, the belief that all such symptoms are psychological in origin is no improvement over the belief that none of them are.”[2] Showalter (who has no formal medical training) admits to receiving hate mail, but has not been deterred from her position that these conditions are contemporary manifestations of hysteria.[3]
https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2019/12/23/over-population-paper-how-big-a-waste-paper-basket-ayers-quite-so-twofingers2brino-4pamphleteers-grubstreetjorno-wiki_ballot-financialeyes-iabato-sam-ge2019-roger-lewis-porthos-joebl/
One of the comments below links to an interview (Spiros and Professor Francis Boyle, bio-terrorism law expert). Boyle referred to his history teacher, HW McNeill. Curious about McNeill, I came across this gem in a Kirkus review of his book “The Pursuit of Power” which came after his “Plagues & Peoples”:
THE PURSUIT OF POWER
TECHNOLOGY, ARMED FORCE, AND SOCIETY SINCE A.D. 1000
BY WILLIAM H. MCNEILL ‧ RELEASE DATE: OCT. 1, 1982
“In his Plagues and Peoples (1976) University of Chicago historian McNeill surveyed world history from the perspective of the influence of microparasites in human life and social organization; this much longer overview is based on “macroparasites”—i.e., other human beings. Plato called those who were entrusted with the physical defense of the community, and nothing else, Guardians. McNeill calls those who, specializing in violence, are able to secure a living without producing, macroparasites…”
So there we have it: The Guardian is a macroparasite.
This has to be seen to be believed.
Man Cleared Of Coronavirus Coughs Through Interview (clip from The Jimmy Dore Show)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZG5evJYdos
They make a complete mockery … and still so many believe it. Admittedly, I believed all the other ones before – SARS, Avian, Swine, MERS, Zika, Ebola – however, they didn’t impact me so I didn’t bother looking and I wasn’t aware of people calling them out as hoaxes. You’d think people would be scrutinising this over-the-top situation as it affects their lives. My friend, who has a particular need, couldn’t get toilet paper. She’s reasonably on board with hoaxes but at the same time it’s as if she doesn’t totally make the connection – she’s annoyed she couldn’t get toilet paper but not outraged that it’s all engineered.
For such a contagious disease with such huge impact, the CDC provides so little information.
They tell us the symptoms are:
Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html
What about the symptoms as the disease progresses? Why don’t they have videos of people suffering the disease in its different stages which might help others identify if they have the same disease?
Why do we ONLY see people in extremely unconvincing fashion falling flat on their faces, lying on the ground outside and inside hospitals, shaking uncontrollably and crying hysterically. Why are people all wrapped up in hospital beds? What symptoms means that they wrap them up?
Oh but wait … here’s a woman who allegedly IS suffering from the disease but – how ’bout them apples – she’s completely asymptomatic. She couldn’t look in better health. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAafDOqfN3M.
As one commenter says: “This whole thing seems off…” and another: “What’s the guarantee that this is not a scripted interview??”
Rebecca Frasure, a Diamond Princess passenger
1. After her diagnosis, contradicting herself, she says, “I never really had any symptoms like cough, like fever when I arrived on Friday at the hospital. Both of those have since resolved.” Later she says she “had a little bit of a cough” but she figured it was just because she’d been outside and on a boat. She really doesn’t seem to know whether she had cough or fever or not … but she ain’t showing any signs now anyways.
2. She tells us that she completed a questionnaire which asked if you take painkillers. She said she marked “on occasion” (the second time painkillers are referred to). We have to wonder why the questionnaire would ask people if they ever take painkillers – doesn’t the vast majority of the population – and what relevance this has to the virus?
3. Rebecca talks about the ship approaching Tokyo but the host when speaking of location says “so there you are – about an hour and a half outside of Tokyo” then corrects herself, “outside of Yokohama”. Why would she correct to Yokohama?
4. So we’re supposed to believe that Rebecca, in space-starved Tokyo, showing zero symptoms, is being accommodated in a private room and “being treated” for no symptoms, in other words, simply monitored? We are supposed to believe that? The host says, “Show us your room, looks like a western room.” As a commenter asks, “Does she think a Japanese hospital has tatami floors and paper walls?”
5. Right at the end the host says, “Rebecca Frasure from her hotel … hospital room.” Doncha love it?
This is the same host who, in an interview with a man whose sister-in-law was an alleged passenger on the plane that crashed in Iran, kept referring to the sister-in-law as the winner of a prize under discussion when the interviewee made it clear it was his sister-in-law’s husband who won the prize. She also confuses the sister-in-law with her husband in the use of their names. Ya reckon she’s just a bit dopey or … giving us the signs? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCtPRid8KHY
This is a 45-second video posted only a few days ago (but presumably from an earlier time) showing someone allegedly suffering from SARS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyQaPl-gWAE
Whaddya reckon? Do you think that’s a real chest pumping up and down?
Actually, maybe it is a real chest. Can’t see fakery in the chest itself and it seems the Lucas machine does pump chests like that even if it seems a little over the stop – doesn’t mean SARS wasn’t a hoax too though of course and when you look it up it’s remarkable how similar the SARS stories are to the COVID-19 ones.
I knew that you would emerge sooner or later with your absurd theories, intended to bring ridicule to those with genuine concerns about the lies and deception of the Deep State.
Are you ready claiming that Wuhan, a Chinese city of 11 million and locked down is staged news?
Are you really claiming that their overflowing hospitals are faked?
Are you really claiming that their overflowing morgues and funeral homes are faked?
Are you really claiming that China would go along with a US/5 eyes/NATO Deep State conspiracy?
Are you really claiming that China isn’t much more likely to be undergoing a real bio warfare assault by the West?
I’d suggest that you know the last point is quite likely to be true, and to distract people from this possibility, you are deliberately creating absurd alternatives saying “look over here instead “.
That’s Deep State PSYOPS tactics “Petra” / Flaxgirl. Some of us here have long ago worked out who you are. Outed once again. Oh dear.
I used to use the screen name, flaxgirl, but I’ve been using Petra since September last year. There is no need for a double reference. Just stick to Petra.
I understand your incredulity, Portonchok. I’m incredulous myself, however, argument from incredulity is a logical fallacy.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity
It’s as Sherlock Holmes said:
“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”
I argue from the evidence and my argument is very straightforward. I’m not trying to distract – you can stick with the claim of overflowing morgues if you wish, I’m simply putting forward my argument.
I say that if there are people genuinely suffering from the alleged COVID-19 we should see convincing evidence of at least one sufferer. We don’t … but we do see people said to be suffering who are in no way convincing. We see people falling flat on their faces, crying hysterically, shaking uncontrollably and then we see a woman who claims to be asymptomatic but whose interview does not add up. There are also a number of other anomalies in the story they’ve told us without anything convincing in any shape or form.
That’s how simple it is. You can agree or stick with “overflowing hospitals”, “Wuhan locked down”, etc, being evidence for the coronavirus being real. They could have locked down Wuhan simply as a test control measure or for other reasons. It’s easy to make a hospital look as if it’s overflowing with patients by placing actors in corridors – also there could be overflowing hospitals even without coronavirus patients. If you choose to believe seeming patients (or even real patients) in hospital corridors must mean coronavirus so be it.
As for the agendas of the various nations involved, I’m sure they are many and varied.
Of course, I’m not the only one on this site or in a lot of other places calling out the coronavirus as hoax. Lots of others are doing it too. While the editors don’t exactly call it a hoax they’re quite a way there, aren’t they?
Beware the CIA-19 virus. Especially if you’re Chinese or Iranian.
Watch and learn:
This documentary was aired last night on the Swiss TV. It is in French, unfortunately, but it shows how China treated thousands of its citizens (reminiscent of Julian Assange’s being carried out of the Ecuadorean Embassy), and it also shows people dropping dead in the streets.
I don’t know if you can access it from where you are, but if you can, it is well worth the watch, even if you don’t understand French:
https://www.rts.ch/play/tv/emission/temps-present?id=385293
Do you believe people would be ‘dropping dead in the streets’ of a virus that has a cfr of 1-3% maximum and mainly kills elderly infirm people with pre-existing conditions and only after prolonged illness?
There are many memes circulating on this highly propagandised topic that don’t stand up to much analysis
Just watch the video instead of jumping to erroneous conclusions and jumping on me like that. The fatality rate is 3.42% globally, probably larger in China.
Jumping on you? You’ve been asked a reasonable question which you don’t answer. You’re on here spreading mainstream talking points and panic and refusing to discuss anything factual.
The answer is in the video I linked to. I am not spreading mainstream media points at all – I neither watch nor read mainstream media, for your edification, and neither am I spreading panic. I have indeed discussed actual factual things, even though they go against the grain of the beliefs expressed here.
I watched the video and if you did you know it does not answer the question Admin asked. Are you trolling?
Pants on fire!
It is blatantly obvious that you did absolutely not watch the video, because it does indeed answer Admin’s questions and backs my original statement.
No, unlike you, I am absolutely not trolling, cupcake.
Pointless and silly going back and forth calling each other liars. I’m sure V isn’t a troll as they have been posing regularly and usefully for years.
But V could you possibly summarise what the video says re people dropping in the streets and how it explains this claim in light of the points we made? It will be helpful for readers here.
Translation of the video description:
There are many scenes of people lying dead in the streets or of collapsing suddenly in the streets. There also are scenes of people being forcibly taken out of their homes and carried manu military and shoved into vans by the Chinese police (much like the manner in which Julian Assange was carried out of the Ecuadorian embassy in London) as they struggled and screamed desperately. Scenes of the entrances of residential buildings being sealed by the authorities in such a way to prevent anyone coming out of or into said buildings. Scenes of an overcrowded hospital with the medical staff being overwhelmed, with sick and also dead people lying on the floor in the corridors, and much, much more.
All these scenes were filmed on their smartphones by many individuals in the quasi deserted streets and from their windows and balconies, which were uploaded to various social media. There is no doubt whatsoever of their authenticity.
I’m sure you’re sincere when you claim this does not sell the standard Western fear narrative, but I have to say this description is in almost every particular, the standard Western fear narrative. Up to and including the slightly racist overtone.
I respectfully disagree.
“There is no doubt whatsoever of their authenticity.”
Now there’s a giveaway.
Go on, back your statement with incontrovertible empirical evidence!
Nah, use a picture of a little dog instead. Far more sensible.
All this clown knows, when it’s stuck, is to post yet more silly moving pictures. Sad.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
Comedy gold. A shrug from Game of Thrones outdoes all the analysis in the world. Admittedly not the first time round. Nor the 10th. Nor the 100th. But after 10 million loops you have hypnotised your audience with your “incontrovertible empirical evidence”!
Hi George, I’ve had a word about posting too many GIFs and I’d just as soon not feed this issue anymore, if it’s alright. Thanks.
Sure thing, Admin. I hadn’t paid attention to that osteoarthritis remark. I hang my head in shame!
Well nobody can possibly outdo your little video loops for incontrovertible empirical evidence!
The people you see being carried out of their homes are confirmed cases who refused to quarantine. Governments in the west would have similar powers to force people into quarantine. I know we do in Australia. The greater good or well-being of the whole community is more important than individual rights.
They could just as well be quarantined in their own homes.
They are quarantining at home in China, these are people not doing what they should be doing, they are confirmed cases. Forget about individual rights, it’s about the well-being of the whole population, thank you.
I watched it in full when it was released, two days ago, dearie.
Yet more silly moving pictures. Sad.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
All it can do, when it’s stuck, is post silly moving pictures. Sad.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
I am amazed about your comment about the death rate of which you know it is inflated as it has been told to you, time and again here, that the death rate is highly inflated because they only monitor patients who have symptoms or are already admitted in hospital.
What makes it so difficult for you to not see that the death rate is bogus, and that one needs a study where consecutive and non-selected individuals are tested for Covid 19 and then followed through time to calculate the actual death rate?
3.42% is the fatality rate among confirmed cases, dearie, as I have stated before.
Do the maths yourself:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Note that just a week ago, if that, there was only one confirmed case in Switzerland. In just a few days, it jumped to 214 confirmed cases, with, thankfully, only one fatality and three recovered thus far.
Do I have to repeat the Deputy Director of the WHO’s observations after he returned from a visit to China? Apparently yes, as you would rather fearmonger than behave like a rational human being. I quote:
Source: https://popularresistance.org/who-expert-explains-why-chinas-cases-of-covid-19-are-declining/
Just saw a BBC thug hectoring a WHO official because he was praising China’s response. The hate just grows and grows.
Admin, this virus is mutating. Not only that, but it’s been genetically spliced to contain elements of AIDS. You can be blasé if you prefer, but it doesn’t make you look too good.
Yet more silly moving pictures. Sad.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
What does that mean? You mean it’s getting stronger? Where is the evidence for that? The death rate was never high and is going down. The infection rate remains consistently low. What facts do you know that contradict these things?
I think you mean it has some genetic resemblance to the HIV retrovirus. Why exactly do you think this makes this relatively benign pathogen more dangerous?
I’ve read all the COVID-19 articles on here. I don’t see anything blasé but I do see very clear presentations of official data points that clearly contradict the mainstream propaganda. Do you think these data should be ignored? Should OG be encouraging people to believe the oftentimes unfactual mainstream panic stories? I think being a Chicken Little spreading poorly digested scare stories is a worse look. Why is everyone losing their scepticism and panicking about a medium-strength flu?
China is locked down, that’s why rates are reducing. But those are official numbers, not to be fully trusted.
While China grapples with this likely bio weapon attack, the Deep State over here deliberately distracts from this, claiming COVID-19 is a massive threat for the whole planet and using it to impose more controls upon us.
That looks like the old joke about the stick that keeps snakes away. Why is China locking itself down for a bug a bit worse than flu? Even in locked down Wuhan less than 1% of people got the corona. And what’s 3% of less than 1%? Because that’s how many died. You have something around 0.o3% chance of dying of corona even in bloody Wuhan. It’s a joke bonny lad, but who’s it on?
Oh so they pretend hardly anyone is dying and then bend over backwards to create a panic about it? Makes sense to me.
Weren’t you the bloke slagging off some girl here for being a conspiracy nut?
You have no proof for this assertion but yes, it is mutating (as do all viruses) into two forms, so-called L-virus and the R-virus. The L version is more dangerous than the R version but over time, the R version has become the major form. I’ll dig out the source for you.
BTW, I’m not saying that it isn’t a man-made virus, just that we have no proof, merely assertions and assertions don’t cut it.
Man, that thumbnail is enough for me! Two knob ends in painting coveralls and trainers standing over a ‘dead’ bloke lying totally straight on the ground, arms by his sides! What are we supposed to think is going on? He’s been walking along feeling fine, got the corona in mid stride, laid down nice and tidy on the floor and died? Where upon the two knob ends in paper decorating coveralls are sent in to look at him?
If you can’t see that’s a bad fake up probably by a news team wanting some dramatic pics then God help you.
From what I have read you’re as likely to drop dead in the street of the corona as you are of flu. And when did you last see anyone do that?
Watch the video instead of spewing utter nonsense.
No more silly moving pictures? – disappointed.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
Vierotchka, people who are fed daily with 5 Eyes MSM propaganda sadly will not believe that media elsewhere, especially here in Switzerland, can be significantly better and objective.
Some forces tried to destroy Swiss impartial broadcasting with last year’s referendum to stop funding it and replace it with foreign and deep pocketed oligarchs, but thankfully enough Swiss were smart enough to reject it.
Something else to share with non Swiss, their state schools teach children critical thinking, especially in the context of history and current affairs. Not many people know that.
Cue: well worn anti Swiss propaganda and venom in reaction to my comment…
Who does fund the ‘impartial’ Swiss media? But in any case they definitely seem to be selling the same fear narrative as the rest of the Western media on this one
Headquartered in Bern, the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation is a non-profit organisation, funded mainly through radio and television licence fees (70%) and making the remaining income from advertising and sponsorship.
Oh, and you are quite wrong – it does absolutely not “sell” the same fear narrative as the rest of the western mainstream media at all.
This video has been pulled, according to the site, for legal reasons; I quote:
I can guess what they are, fake, fake, fake, fake!!!
I suggest you take some French lessons. What it says is “For legal reasons, this video is only available in Switzerland.”
Note what I wrote in my original post at the top of this thread:
I wrote that because I know that some of TSR’s Temps Présents videos online on their website are not available outside of Switzerland, and the TSR’s Temps Présents haven’t yet uploaded it to its YouTube channel. I don’t know if they will uploade it there. If they do, I’ll post it here.
I misspelled it, it is Temps Présent in the singular and not in the plural.
Here are some of their videos on their YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBm0mt3q5l8xDy9PRIohaFw/videos
Oh, another one of my mistakes – it is RTS and not TSR.
https://www.rts.ch/
Sorry about that.
Better stick to posting yet more silly moving pictures.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
I stand corrected (my French aint good) but it does mean we only have your word for it, s0 from what I’ve read here, people just don’t drop dead from coronavirus, it’s ends up as a form of viral pneumonia, that is the end product of a process, so I still think it’s a fake.
BTW, what, exactly are the legal reasons why it can’t be shown outside Switzerland? Getting sued perhaps for publishing fake news?
Due to licensing rights, just like there are many videos on YouTube that are not available in some countries – some YouTube videos may not be available in your country/region for the following reasons: Video owners have chosen to make their content available only to certain countries/regions (usually due to licensing rights).
Licensing rights? For an amateur video? What rubbish. It says for ‘legal reasons’, not specifically copyright. So it’s only your assumption that it’s a licensing issue. And given the seriousness of the video’s accusations, you’d think the author would want as wide a circulation as possible.
Yes, licensing rights, whether you like it or not. It doesn’t need to state “for copyright reasons”.
Gosh, I do get the impression that the bones of your cranium are two inches thick…
Your thinking is profoundly wrong and misguided.
How can you think it is a fake since you haven’t seen the video in the first place?
Don’t you realize that you’re not making any sense whatsoever?
Anyway…
All this clown knows, when it’s stuck, is to post yet more silly moving pictures. Sad.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
More silly moving pictures. Not very entertaining.
A picture is worth a thousand words, an animated gif is worth many more. Animated gifs spare me from typing because osteoarthritis in my hands and fingers restrict me considerably, doofus!
Let me know when you’ve made an intelligent comment (not likely!).
The vid is still up. Use your vpn, choose Zurich as the end node ‘et voila!’. Selection of horrorshow fear porn. Cheers!
Not so, it simply is the reality.
I don’t have VPN.
No problem.
See https://www.top10bestvpn.com/
Jimmy Dore, standing in for Jesse Ventura, starts with the coronavirus stuff and then goes into America’s endless wars…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUVdSSOQHbQ
The sad thing is that the psychopaths who rule America will probably see the coronavirus as a good excuse to kill-off ‘useless eaters’: the frail and elderly and the millions living in tent cities.
The United States of America is without doubt the most disgusting society that’s ever existed on Earth.
Let’s just remember this virus would – at current rates – infect about 0.8% of those ‘useless eaters’ and leave 86-99% of that 0.8% alive and well.
As far as I can tell, the only real evidence we can expect of the virus is being shown people suffering from it. Statistics are meaningless – they can apply them to people who might be suffering or have died from any old thing or they can simply make them up.
We are not shown ANY convincing sufferers. Instead, we are shown people falling flat on their faces, etc or in one case at least a woman who is asymptomatic (not explained and not mentioned in the literature as a possibility) and who says things in her interview that do not add up at all.
Why should we believe anything whatsoever that they tell us about COVID-19 where their story is full of anomalies and where there is absolutely no sign whatsoever of any reality of it?
I think it’s great that OffG is calling out the coronavirus but I don’t understand why you don’t simply call it out as a complete hoax or global “pandemic live exercise” rather than accept the statistics and make the point that the statistics are nothing to get worked up about. I think you take the attitude that because you don’t have clear information that the statistics are not genuine you feel obliged to accept them at least. That is one way to judge things, however, my approach is that if the media tell us a story full of anomalies and with no clear evidence whatsoever of any reality at all then I do not accept the statistics. In the presence of numerous anomalies and no signs of clear evidence, the fact that we cannot be sure of the statistics themselves means nothing to me and I see no reason to behave cautiously around them. They have given us nothing to believe their story and every reason not to – I don’t think we need to be cautious around statistics. They throw caution absolutely to the wind, deliberately injecting anomalies at every conceivable juncture and mashing their hoaxery in our faces. Their lack of caution is them exercising and relishing in their power. When we behave cautiously what we’re doing is kowtowing to that power. I don’t believe that’s how you fight for the truth.