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Italy: Only 12% of “Covid19 deaths” list Covid19 as cause Report shows up to 88% of Italy’s alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed

The way Italy registers deaths explains their increased coronavirus case/fatality ratio, according to one expert and a report from Italy’s National Institute of Health (ISS).

Citing this report (in English here), Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health said:

The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,”

This has been reported widely, it was even in The Telegraph, and yet no one seems to be engaging with it.

The president of the Italian Civil Protection Service actually went out of his way to remind people of the nature of Italy’s fatality figures in a morning briefing on 20/03:

I want you to remember these people died WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus”

What does this actually mean?

It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.

It means thousands of deaths currently widely attributed to Covid19, and being used to justify the introduction of measures equating to medical martial law, may not have died of covid19 at all but of their serious chronic co-morbidity (cancer, heart disease etc.).

This statistic is not a secret, or in any way controversial, it was in The Telegraph after all, but people seem to be ignoring it, or reading around it, or perhaps simply not understanding it.

We reported on these statistics a few days ago, and many people who should know better simply reacted to the headline without either reading the actual article or understanding the statistics.

Given the bill that is having its second reading in the UK parliament today, it is important this information is spread widely and quickly.

This information was compiled with the assistance of the Swiss Propaganda Research group, we once again recommend everybody read their site. They are a must-read, a must-follow and a must-share. It is the best resource for Covid19 information on the internet.

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Stephen M
Stephen M

….THE PHONY CORONY VIRUS. Where are the bodies stacked high…Its so contagious that 6ft apart BS Then on that logic filthy, packed like rats, INDIA should have 100 MILLION cases right……????
Welcome to their planned next step to their Global plan… FORCED VACCINES and TSA AMERICA.

kroohh
kroohh

At least in Finland the mainstream media has told very clearly, that it’s more dangerous to those with pre-existing health conditions, but still very bad disease to even healthy persons, have read testimonials etc… No claim has been made that everyone has died solely because of Corona. Don’t know how media has been reporting in other countries.

MLS
MLS

It is not a ‘very bad disease for healthy people’. Less than 1% of those who died were previously health.

Why are people such fucking ignorant morons about basic numbers?

kroohh
kroohh

“Very bad” doesn’t mean only death in my books. There is chance that you can get mild or severe infection.

ashley faller
ashley faller

In Canada it is the same. They are reporting this is a serious issue that needs to be taken seriously and that these measures are done to help our citizens who are the most vulnerable. On a side note the second highest rates of people with corona virus who are Hospitalized are people between the ages of 20 and 40.

Fabrice
Fabrice

Question

I’ve just written a post that contains some very meaningful updates about my last previous post and they have been published soon after, now it looks like they have disappeared, have you crossed out my last post? Why? If you haven’t, then, what else happened?

Best regards.

Fabrice, greetings from Italy.

Fabrice
Fabrice

In Italy, things are far worse!

Here is the smoking gun!

Updates.

As of March 26, 2020 and out of a sample of 6801 COVID-19 patients dying, the most remarkable thing is that mean age of patients dying for COVID-2019 infection was 78 and that as far as the absolute number of deaths by age group, median age for women was 82 and median age for men was 78.

To point out also that in Italy life expectancy is 85 for women and 81 for men.

The second most remarkable thing is that out of a sample of 710 COVID-19 patients dying in-hospital for whom it was possible to analyse clinic charts , 2.1% of the sample presented with a no comorbidities ( 15 deaths ) , 21.3% with a single comorbidity (151 deaths ) , 25.9% with 2 ( 184 deaths ) , and 50.7% with 3 or more ( 360 deaths ).

Hence, there are only 15 patients with no previous disease who died of Coronavirus and represent only 2,1% of the sample above mentioned.

Reference:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_26_marzo_eng.pdf

Anyway, the two samples from a statistical point of view are quite significant and if we extend these results to the totality of the data collected at national level which as of today ( reference: March 30, 2020 ) report a total deaths equal to 10779 and then it will turn out that 2,1% of 10779 is 226, which means that with a good statistical approximation so far throughout Italy only 226 Italians with no previous disease have died of Coronavirus.

In practice, out of about 60 million people residing in Italy, if we remove the approximately 24 million Italians with chronic pathologies (Report “OsservaSalute” end 2017), the result is about 36 million Italians with mild or zero pathologies, well, in reference to these about 36 million Italians with mild or no diseases, only about 226 Italians have died from Coronavirus so far which means that the death rate for Coronavirus of Italian people with mild or no diseases is equal approximately to 0,000627%!!!

Furthermore, the Italian media mainstream have never reported the special report above mentioned and because of the fact that some Italian people are starting to smell the rat they still just say ( only sometimes ) that the Coronavirus is the real cause of death only for a minority of Italian people.

Welocome to the wildest Orwellian regime ever seen in Italy since the birth of the Italian Republic, 2 June 1946.

Best regards.

Fabrice, greetings from Italy.

Fabrice
Fabrice

Integration.

1. To avoid any possible misunderstanding.

When I wrote in my two first posts ” died of” or died from”, actually I meant and I mean “died with” ( except those patients with no comorbidities who obviously died from coronavirus ) which is quite different, I hadn’t written in this right way because I’m not an English native speaker, I was also in a hurry when I was writing those two posts and so I didn’t write properly because I had taken for granted this fundamental premise that in Italy is quite known among Italian people ( a very small minority ) who are interested in counterinformation about several matters of national interest.

2. However, here is the update.

“Characteristics of COVID-19 patients dying in ItalyReport based on available data on March 30th, 2020” by Italian National Institute of Health.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_30_marzo_eng.pdf

The results are almost the same, it is worth emphasizing the following facts.

Deaths under the age of 50 years.

As of March 30th, 112 out of the 10,026 (1.1%) positive COVID-19 patients under the age of 50 died. In particular, 23 of these were less than 40 years, 19 men and 4 women (age range between 26 and 39years). For 2 patients under the age of 40 years no clinical information is available; the remaining 15 had serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity) and 6 had no major pathologies.

It is also noteworthy that the Italian media mainstream have never spoken about this fundamental aspect of the matter and because of the fact that some Italian people are starting to smell the rat they still keep on saying ( only sometimes ) that the Coronavirus is the real cause of death only for a minority of Italian people.

Best regards.

TheTruthSeeker, greetings from Italy.

Michel
Michel

Just check the website https://countrymeters.info/ru/Italy#Population_clock
You can check each country like Spain or Italy and see if the deaths toll rises due to coronvirus.

Felipe
Felipe

No Way, So it was a false alarm…

Bryan
Bryan

Put it this way – if we didn’t KNOW that Covid-19 was a different flu, and we were just saying and believing that this many people were dying of “seasonal flu”, would these numbers be alarming in scope or in the population they are affecting?

Robbobbobin
Robbobbobin

“Put it this way…”

Anyone can put anything a dumbfuck way.

DispletTheMyth
DispletTheMyth

not an argument.
Also, it’s not a dumbfuck way to put it. If already 60% of the UK population have had, and beat, COVID-19, without much more than a sniffle, it really is the case of would we have even known about it?
Now, we don’t have a control to compare against, so we don’t know if the infection rate would otherwise have been way higher and then way more deaths as a result.
Also, the China stuff….. how much of that would need to be faked to cause the financial collapse of the West. Has it also caused the financial collapse of China? Is that a plausible line of reasoning? Maybe not, but we should be asking the questions and exploring the answers.

Bryan
Bryan

Yes, as you’ve proven with that comment.

Dutch
Dutch

Thanks for showing us what that looks like!

MLS
MLS

No they would not be remarkable at all

Cassandra
Cassandra

Another distorted story by Off Guardian — one that can be easily checked if one were concerned with truth instead of propaganda. What Ricciardi actually said is: “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus.” Key word: death certificates. [This person accuses us of ‘distortion’ and then proceeds to ‘correct’ us by citing the exact quote we feature in the article! She needs to read more closely – ed]

The head of Italy’s NHI told a different story: “But experts also warn that the death count, like the number of total infections, could actually be much higher than what is being reported since many people who die at home or in nursing care facilities are not tested if they were asymptomatic. “It is plausible that deaths are underestimated,” Silvio Brusaferro, head of Italy’s National Health Institute, said Tuesday at the daily civil protection press conference. “We report deaths that are signaled with a positive swab. Many other deaths are not tested with a swab.”

These ‘corrections’ in no way counter anything in the article, which is citations solely and wholly from the relevant Italian authorities – with no interpretation from us. This is a blatant attempt at distortion – ed

https://www.thedailybeast.com/making-sense-of-italys-staggering-covid-19-death-toll

Fabrice
Fabrice

In Italy, things are far worse!

Here is the smoking gun!

As of March 20, 2020 and out of a sample of 3,200 patients treated for Coronavirus, there are only 6 patients with no previous disease who died of Coronavirus and represent only 1.2% of the sample above mentioned.

Reference:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

Anyway, the sample from a statistical point of view is quite significant and if we extend these results to the totality of the data collected at national level which as of today ( reference: March 25, 2020 ) report a total deaths equal to 7503 and then it will turn out that 1.2% of 7503 is 90, which means that with a good statistical approximation so far throughout Italy only 90 Italians with no previous disease have died of Coronavirus.

In practice, out of about 60 million people residing in Italy, if we remove the approximately 24 million Italians with chronic pathologies (Report “OsservaSalute” end 2017), the result is about 36 million Italians with mild or zero pathologies, well, in reference to these about 36 million Italians with mild or no diseases, only about 90 Italians have died from Coronavirus so far which means that the rate death for Coronavirus of Italian people with mild or no diseases is equal approximately to 0,00025%!!!

Furthermore, the Italian media mainstream have never reported the special report above mentioned and because of the fact that some Italian people are starting to smell the rat they just say ( only sometimes ) that the Coronavirus is the real cause of death only for a minority of Italian people.

Welocome to the wildest Orwellian regime ever seen in Italy since the birth of the Republican Italy, 2 June 1946.

Best regards.

Fabrice, greetings from Italy.

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

I think this article is exactly backwards. Other countries are almost certainly undercounting their death tolls from the coronavirus. From a but-for causation standpoint, the virus is without a doubt a cause of death in these cases. In fact, especially because testing is so wanton, there’s almost certainly more deaths that have *not* been attributed to the virus at all than those that have even when underlying health issues were present. If anything, Italy is counting more accurately than other countries, not less accurately.

Admin2
Admin
Admin2

Do you mean testing is wanting? I have to say I like the image of yours better.

It would be great if you had some sources to support your view (of undercounting -ed), because this isn’t the picture our information is generating at the moment.

Thanks, A2

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

I do mean that, obviously. Phone swiping. There is indeed evidence of what I’m saying although not systematic of course. (If it were it needn’t be argued.) There are reports from doctors of undercounting in the US media, for example. But it’s also just obvious through reason. First, governments have a huge incentive to undercount and refuse testing. Second, many governments, because they are neoliberal and incompetent, have been negligent in securing adequate testing supplies and have enacted strict testing regimes that refuse testing to all but the most obvious cases. Third, it’s just the nature of how this works to undercount. Only “confirmed cases” get counted in the death toll, which means people who have died with a positive test result. This is bound to miss many deaths. Italy appears to be doing a more thorough job than any other country. And that makes sense, in fact, since the area of Italy that was hit hardest is considered to have one of the most robust health care systems in the world.

Admin2
Admin
Admin2

Under-testing will also miss a lot of mild and asymptomatic cases, of which there are purported to be many, as well as those who have had the virus and are now immune. Systematic testing of a sample population hasn’t been conducted, to my knowledge, and it is not known, therefore, whether the virus is indeed novel – in fact there is evidence it may not be. Until we have this data we can’t calculate accurate mortality rates. Accuracy of PCR tests has also been brought into question, and it is suggested by some that they can’t isolate CV19, rather corona viruses in general, and also can’t detect viral load, which makes differentiating an active infection from a non-active infection impossible. There are a lot of interesting posts and links on articles, I’ll let you peruse at your leisure. A2

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

Almost all mild and asymptomatic cases will be missed. That’s the nature of every disease, and this is the case even in influenza death rate statistics. It’s considered a “case” fatality rate for this reason; a case exists where a person seeks treatment from medical professionals who then diagnose the condition. You can never–and will never–have “accurate mortality rates” in the sense that you are demanding. Every argument you make applies just as well to influenza. Note: this outbreak is objectively worse than influenza, with an objectively higher *case* fatality rate and hospital admission rate. That may well be partly or even mostly attributable to a lack of a vaccine, but that is the situation in which we presently find ourselves.

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

And keep in mind, it’s not the deadliness per se of the coronavirus that is concerning. It’s slightly more fatal than the flu. But it’s also a very rapidly spreading virus for which nobody is vaccinated against. This is what makes it especially dangerous for vulnerable people. Which includes health care workers, who absorb massive doses of it while treating people without adequate protective gear because our capitalist governments have failed us.

Admin2
Admin
Admin2

All of this is unsubstantiated or doesn’t fit the available facts. Flu-Related mortality rates are based on projected estimates in a population-based study over a significant period of time. Covid19-related deaths are not. More often than not they are based on a very small and biased sample of ‘those tested so far’, or ‘confirmed cases’. You can spout fear propaganda if you want, but most of it isn’t accurate or the figures don’t substantiate it.

CV19 has actually been downgraded from a High Consequence Infectious Disease in the UK.

You really aren’t displaying any indication you have read the piece above. Nor are you posting any sources to back up your boldly-made assertions. These sorts of soft-trolling techniques are being used a lot atm. So please, post something with some sources or let’s end this chat for now. Thanks.

DispletTheMyth
DispletTheMyth

RT-PCR tests can’t detect viral load, but realtime RT-PCR (rRT-PCR; qRT-PCR) can. The NHS are using realtime tests from what I can gather
Whether they can identify novel corona virus or not I haven’t discovered
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real-time_polymerase_chain_reaction
” It monitors the amplification of a targeted DNA molecule during the PCR (i.e., in real time), not at its end, as in conventional PCR.”
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/03/guidance-and-sop-covid-19-virus-testing-in-nhs-laboratories-v1.pdf
page 3 “The preferred screening/testing is molecular diagnosis of COVID-19 using
real-time RT-PCR (RdRp gene) assay based on oral swabs, which PHE
laboratories have been using to confirm this disease. “

Admin2
Admin
Admin2

Thanks for these links.

Doesn’t RT-PCR stand for ‘Real Time PCR’? I am little confused about that.

[comment edited – A2] Interesting reading, I’m currently trying to gather info. How reliable this is in relation to virus detection I can’t see. I also think it’s worth noting that realtime and conventional PCR tests rely exclusively on the quality of the source DNA template they use, which is another area lacking clarity.

Interesting links, thanks. Please let me know if you have more info.

Dutch
Dutch

A virus is just an RNA fragment with sufficient sequence similarity as to allow it to insert itself into your Gene sequence and be replicated into new DNA. Viral load may be determined by quantification of replicates expressing that sequence but it’s a touchy business. There have to be controls and an established baseline and reference gene’s from outside the target region. Typically complex algorithms accompany most commercial assays that tease out and/or control all of these variables. But they take years of clinical validation. I doubt any existing qPCR tests for COViD 19 can offer much beyond the most rudimantary information. But they can give a basic pass fail, though even that will be of questionable accuracy in any individual case.

Dutch
Dutch

Pretty clear you know nothing about PCR. qPCR is quantitative PCR. It can quantify Gene expression by comparing replication of target sequences against a control. RT-qPCR is real time qPCR and allows us to quantify in real time DNA transcription through each replication cycle using fluorescenct tagging of probes. Beyond that I have no idea what you’re trying to say and you don’t either.

Eric Blair
Eric Blair

According to the CDC 80,000 people died from the flu in the U.S. in 2017. Why weren’t we asked to stay home? Why weren’t the hospitals overwhelmed? WAKE UP!

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

That was for the whole country over a 12 month period in a bad flu season. By comparison, we’re at 1700 in about three weeks, a third of which are from one city. Also, it’s still just beginning, so buckle up.

Olala
Olala

Where did you get 1700 deaths ?

cobblepot
cobblepot

his CDC deaths are way off on the high side. google it. and 1700 deaths are way low. maybe a week ago?

cobblepot
cobblepot

you can see from the downvoting that its a waste of time reasoning with people on this topic. most people can’t get their heads around geometric progression, much less understand comparisons of historical data over a year vs 1 month acceleration. believe me i have tried

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

Also, it was 61,000 deaths, and, especially in view of this article, it’s worth pointing that they call those deaths “flu-associated” deaths.

Noam
Noam

Multiple mainstream news articles including CNN place the number of influenza deaths in the United States in 2017 at around 80,000. The articles were obviously fact checked and cite the CDC and W.H.O. as sources. The CDC website now lists the 2017 stats at 61,000 deaths for 2017. Things are getting interesting. It’s either much worse than what we see in the media or not as bad as it seems.

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

Oh, also keep in mind that, unlike that yearvis-a-vis influenza, society has taken extreme measures to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus. There’s just no comparison that any reasonable, informed person could ever make here.

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

To put this in perspective, NYC has about 2.6% of the US population. If you extrapolate 600 deaths in three weeks (and really it’s closer to one or two weeks) in NYC to the entire population for a year, that’s 400,000 deaths. Now, that’s likely an overestimate because NYC is also denser than the rest of the US, but however you slice it, it’s really ugly. I’m not trying to get my parents needlessly killed.

Kim G
Kim G

And yet, hospitals and morgues are filling up. Yes, I get that perhaps many or most of these folks weren’t long for this world before cornavirus, but it’s inarguable that their deaths have at the very least been accelerated, perhaps by a significant factor.

So what’s the implication of this article? That we should just stop all the quarantines and social distancing and let the weak die?

Economics may well at some point force that. We shall see.

Meanwhile expect more government flailing around an issue that they dare not even discuss.

Kim G
Boston, MA
Which remains on a sort of “soft lockdown.”

Jeezus
Jeezus

Kim…. it absolutely does NOT mean their deaths were accelerated. Do you know HOW many people die DAILY?

1.8 people die (on average)… EVERY SINGLE SECOND.

Now say even 10%, 20%, god… 50% of those people who are going to pass have the coronavirus…

That’s how you get the types of figures we’re seeing.

Maarten "merethan"

So what’s the implication of this article? That we should just stop all the quarantines and social distancing and let the weak die?

It sounds like the right thing to do: Not letting the weak die. And obviously I don’t want my grandparents, or yours, to die.
There is a price to this lockdown however. A price paid by another group of “weak” people: Not bodily weak, but monetarily weak. Poor people.

Societies all over the globe pay a hefty price for the recession that’s coming, not to mention in liberties and rights they now already have lost.

jiri
jiri

Exactly, if you die in car crash, for sake of the argument, and during the autopsy doctor find that you have empty stomach, then is clear, you death was caused by starvation

Fabrice
Fabrice

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

Source and continuation:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

Did British media mainstream give the news?

No, they didn’t, how about?

Welcome to the wildest Orwellian regime!

Fabrice, greetings from Italy.

PS in reference to the final comment “Welcome to the wildest Orwellian regime!”, obviuosly the same is true in Italy , France, USA and so on, the common factor of all these Western countries is NATO, just a strange coincidence? I don’t think so.

ya-ya grill
ya-ya grill

really cool to see how conspiracy websites operate.

Eric Blair
Eric Blair

What you are feeling is called cognitive dissonance. Keep searching for the truth and you will feel it often.

Loulou
Loulou

I disagree cause many of these people who died could keep living without the virus.

padre
padre

It is the same as when old people die of pneumonia, while they are waiting to die of causes, that put them into hospital!

Dee Cee
Dee Cee

When you have a chronic illness, such as diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular or respiratory conditions, all of which are underlying factors in the majority of CoV deaths, you are basically counting the days no matter what. Something’s going to kill each and every one of us. So, for those who come to this situation, each day is even more of a blessing. With or without CoV, something is going to kill them sooner rather than later. People who have these conditions KNOW this. Everyone on earth should not be expected to place their lives in a bubble to protect medically frail individuals from…. what? Their days are numbered, as are the ones I have on Earth, too.

Barb
Barb

That’s really untrue, Dee Cee. There are countless people with chronic conditions and diseases living full, productive lives and no anticipation of dieing anytime soon.

Nancy
Nancy

Dee Cee
Let’s just get this clear. To make it simple…people with psoriasis are often on immune suppressant drugs. Those people are living healthy productive lives. However getting something like Covid 19 could be disasterous for them because of the drugs they are on. There are all sorts of people out there living life fully and young that have underlying conditions. To say it’s okay that these people were going to die anyway is just thoughtless and cruel.

Maarten "merethan"

It is indeed cruel. And something nobody likes.

But yet, Dee Cee’s question is a fair one: How many days taken from one group, is a fair price for one more day for the other?

All our time on this planet is limited. It is valuable to all of us.

Kid Larami
Kid Larami

You have forgotten one thing… I am 83, still here, yet many much younger have gone…most owing to a drink/cigarette/lifestyle…so why should I be blamed and resented because I am still here?
I am here because I took life as precious, so did not throw it away!
No mention about the millions of youngsters who all over the world waste police and other emergency funds getting stewed over each weekend…so EVERY person deserves medical treatment, with result based on the way they have been physically responsible gor themselves.
Also, Coronavirus IS thus season’s Corona type….law should state folk who HAVE a cold should be indoors, anyone free to notiify authorities of folk who ignire this.
In truth, our awful politicians were scarrd stiff at all the mass demos last year, sparked by Greta Thunberg…so the right wing fascists amongst them…..used falsely statted Corona, to put us under unlawful house arrest.
I went through WWII..so these politicians have done what Hitler failed to do without a shot being fired!

Yarkob
Yarkob

“ We reported on these statistics a few days ago, and many people who should know better simply reacted to the headline without either reading the actual article or understanding the statistics.”

really?! you surprise me…

*cough*

Kratoklastes
Kratoklastes

It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%.

No, it’s far worse than that. You’ve used the wrong denominator.

If the promulgated number is 100, but the actual number is 12… the promulgated number is overstated by (100/12)× which is 8.33× which is 833%.

So

It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 833%.

Kim G
Kim G

If we’ve learned nothing else about the media recently, it’s that they don’t do math. Keep that in mind when reading anything. “This was written by someone who likely majored in journalism.” Were any of these the smart kids you grew up around?

John Pretty
John Pretty

It makes perfect sense. Worldometer added a new column the other day, “tot deaths/1M pop”. Ignoring San Marino, whose population is tiny, the top 5 are:

Italy 124
Spain 74
Iran 25
Netherlands 21
France 20

The UK is way below this on just 6.

If you take the figure for Italy 124 and multiply by 12% you get: 15, which is much more reasonable. Spain’s figure is also way ahead of the rest for some reason.

Robbobbobin
Robbobbobin

“for some reason”

That ‘some’ being why it is meaningless to aggregate the various national figures, no?

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

What’s with the surge in hospital admissions then? Causation is not clean and simple, to be sure, but, whatever it is, it is clear that a viral epidemic is indeed sending a wave of people to the hospital and putting them in critical conditions. Doctors aren’t going out into the community and dragging people in there.

John Pretty
John Pretty

Hospitals have to deal with epidemics every few years. They just aren’t usually newsworthy. Ever heard a hospital to say they had enough funding and never any shortages?

Barb
Barb

I have never heard of hospitals and their personnel being this overwhelmed by an epidemic – lacking capacity for its victims and safety equipment for personnel as has happened in Italy, Spain, New York, and to a lesser degree in Seattle.

John Grenci
John Grenci

this is a very good point, regarding hospital beds. but one thing, I have yet to see or hear anybody mention this is why not look at total deaths per million/per day (both the “per million” and per day are arbitrary) and compare it to historical norms. you can compare to March of previous years in a country to adjust for seasonal. add a trend component if need be. Thus, if all other things are equal, and Spain is reporting 500 deaths a day from corona, but compared to norms, the total deaths are only increasing say, by 200 deaths, then the 200 is a better reflection of what is going on. need to do over a week or so to get an average that is not influenced by an outlier day.

Kratoklastes
Kratoklastes

Although I upvoted, there’s also a requirement to account for whether the comparison week had some other charactgeristic (then or now) – if last year was a particularly benign flu year, and/or this year is a particularly nasty one, for example.

Ideally, it would be best to calculate some rolling daily average (which would have the benefit of giving a rough estimate at some error bars around the average) and then test if the two intervals were statistically different.

People are approaching the numbers as if everything’s deterministic, when it’s not. There’s vast amounts of uncertainty embedded in every number – including ‘confirmed cases’, given that the test spits out at least 60% false positives: “Zhuang et al” (2020) say it’s as high as 80.3%, with 75% probability that it’s above 47%.

(The flip side of that: it implies that the false negative rate is above 50% too. Permitting a person who tests negative to leave, is slightly worse odds than a coin toss)

Reference…

Zhuang et al (too many co-authors to bother with), “Potential false-positive rate among the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients” (link is to English abstract)

John Grenci
John Grenci

I agree.. many other factors to allow for.

AWOKEN
AWOKEN

No, but fear mongering media does put people into panic which floods the hospitals, Immune systems are compromised out of fear as well making people more prone to sickness. Jobs being lost, more stress….any respiratory issue (flu, pneumonia etc being diagnosed as Covid19) …testing kits 80% false positives….this pandemic is far from it…this is a smoke screen as congress and the world continue to pass laws under citizens noses. CEO OF URGENT CARE CAUGHT LYING ON THE NEWS ABOUT HUGE LINES OUT THE DOOR…DAMN LIES! WAKE UP PEEPS! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJlWrJ5JQNE

Kratoklastes
Kratoklastes

the surge in hospital admissions

Compared to what?

What is the normal rate of hospital admissions in the relevant parts of Italy at comparable times of year?

What is the normal rate of (hospitalisation/ICU/death) for respiratory distress in the relevant parts of Italy at comparable times of year?

pigswiggle
pigswiggle

I don’t have information about this from Italy, but we do from New York. It’s much higher. Look at the second graph, which represents ER admissions.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-syndromic-surveillance.pdf

By the way, health care workers are disproportionate victims here. They are also the healthiest victims. They receive massive “doses” of the virus while treating patients with insufficient protective equipment, which causes more severe symptoms. The more they are overwhelmed, the more nurses and doctors will die. We are all a potential murder weapon.

Earnesto
Earnesto

In fact, senior care facilities in Northern Italy cannot treat medical complications caused by age related conditions, so hospitals are being filled with at risk seniors.

Nope
Nope

5G

Jay Khaye
Jay Khaye

Actually in most cases where I have seen detailed information, they don’t need to drag anyone anywhere, they are already residing in Hospices or nursing homes etc. In Italy the average age of the deceased is 82.