Biden’s “Minor Incursion” Remark Reveals A Lot About His Team’s Russia Strategy
It’s clear that the Biden Administration remains divided over what to do but that some members within it are dangerously flirting with the possibility of provoking what they mistakenly think might be a ‘manageable crisis’ with Russia.
Andrew Korybko
US President Joe Biden scandalously quipped during Wednesday’s press conference that NATO might be divided over how to respond in the event that Russia stages a so-called “minor incursion” into Ukraine.
This reveals that his team’s strategy towards Russia isn’t fully formed in the context of the undeclared US-provoked missile crisis in Europe that talks earlier this month were aimed at de-escalating.
It also follows speculation from American intelligence agencies that the Eurasian Great Power is planning a “false flag” attack in Donbass in order to justify the use of force against its neighbor, which Moscow of course angrily denied.
That claim prompted an Eastern Ukrainian militia leader to much more credibly allege that it’s actually British-trained Ukrainian operatives who are plotting a false flag attack there.
It’s objectively the case that tensions are soaring between the US and Russia as a result of recent talks failing to achieve legal guarantees for the latter’s security. In particular, Moscow is requesting that NATO formally declare that it won’t expand any further eastward and that it also won’t deploy strike weapons near Russia’s borders.
The Kremlin also requested written replies to all of its very detailed proposals that its representatives recently discussed with their American counterparts. While the anti-Chinese faction of the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) has an interest in de-escalating tensions in Europe so as to enable the Pentagon to redeploy some of their forces from there to the Asia-Pacific in order to more aggressively “contain” China, their anti-Russian rivals disagree.
That subversive faction has evidently succeeded in at the very least delaying progress on that front, if not dangerously risking its reversal towards an even more intensified competition between these nuclear powers.
There’s also a crucial domestic political context that’s recently come into play too, and that’s the Biden Administration’s latest spree of legislative losses on the home front.
Some speculate that the incumbent’s team might try to provoke an international distraction that they might mistakenly believe could be “manageable” in order to rally the country behind its elderly leader. The timing is such that this could proverbially “kill two birds with one stone” by prompting the fearmongered “minor incursion” by Russia during next month’s Beijing Winter Olympics in order to spoil that latter event.
Strategically speaking, this is ominously similar to what the US did during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics when it encouraged former Georgian President Saakashvili to provoke a similar “minor incursion” by attacking Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia during the start of those Games. History might once again be repeating itself for the above-mentioned self-serving reasons.
Just like back then, the US thought that any kinetic proxy crisis with Russia would be “manageable” but the outcome shattered their expectations. So too might something similar happen vis-à-vis Ukraine since any “minor incursion” by Russia would likely be aimed at completely neutralizing the military threat to its national security from that neighboring nation. In other words, the US would suffer a massive strategic setback.
Nevertheless, depending on the scope and scale of the fearmongered “minor incursion” that might be prompted by the US’ anti-Russian “deep state” faction either encouraging Kiev to commence a third round of Civil War hostilities in Eastern Ukraine and/or unthinkably attack Russian forces across the border directly, the US-led West may or may not impose its threatened worst-ever sanctions regime against Moscow.
In theory, artillery and missile strikes from within Russia’s own borders against hostile Ukrainian military targets might be sufficient to neutralize imminent threats without its forces having to cross the international frontier. That might enable Russia to respond below the sanctions threshold while still inadvertently spoiling the Beijing Winter Olympics like the US might be hoping.
It would also be enough to provoke the foreign crisis that Biden’s team might have dangerously convinced themselves that he needs for domestic political reasons related to distracting Americans from his failed legislative agenda and getting them to rally behind him on a so-called “patriotic” pretext.
Depending on how the sequence of events is spun to average Americans, it could also possibly give the Democrats a fighting chance ahead of the midterm elections later this year. It’s admittedly a gamble, but as the saying goes, “desperate people do desperate things” and the Biden Administration is becoming increasingly desperate as a result of its latest legislative setbacks.
The “minor incursion” that their anti-Russian “deep state” faction might be plotting to provoke could therefore be seen as a realistic scenario.
Observers should remember that while the insight shared in this analysis makes sense from the perspective through which the author has lately been interpreting the US’ approach towards Russia’s security guarantees, anything can still happen since its “deep state” dynamics remain opaque by their very nature.
This means that the “minor incursion” scenario might not actually come to pass if something changes behind the scenes and thus alters its “deep state’s” calculations. It’s clear that the Biden Administration remains divided over what to do but that some members within it are dangerously flirting with the possibility of provoking what they mistakenly think might be a “manageable crisis” with Russia.
The next four weeks till the upcoming Olympics’ closing ceremony on 20 February will be telling.
Originally published by One World Press
Andrew Korybko is an American journalist and political analyst. You can read more of his work at One World Press, or follow him on Twitter.
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He said it might be time to start talking about NATO’s expansion. While some people misinterpreted his comment as an indication that NATO should expand, Joe Biden did not speak out against expanding membership in NATO. io games wordle website
Biden is and always was for NATO expansion. The question is why and why should we expand NATO closer to the Russian border? According to chi-nese, enlarging NATO may weaken security (which is already happening.)
The United Snakes has just stolen all of Afghanistan’s money frozen in the US. The EU had better get ready to welcome another 5 million moslem refugees.
They can add the money to the stolen Iranian assets, the the stolen Syrian oil, the stolen Venezuelan gold, the stolen Libyan gold, and the stolen Ukrainian gold.
Our Exceptional And Indispensable Friends are the biggest thieves and leeches in history. They make Jesse James and Ronnie Biggs look like rank amateurs.
…I keep seeing the word ‘airlift’ thrown about a lot: – “airlifted weapons”, “airlifted equipment and supplies”… – There was a photo-op of a master pallet loaded with weapons crates that could have been either small arms or, concievably, man-portable anti-air or anti-tank missiles, along with the boast that “We just airlifted 200,000 pounds of equipment”… – Well great, that’s around 100 tons – just about enough to keep an infantry platoon going in an all-out shooting match with Russia until *Maybe* teatime tomorrow, *At Most*…
…- You can airlift personnel in quantity, certainly, but when it comes to materiel?… – A C-5 Galaxy (The largest airlift plane in the US inventory), for example, can carry at most either 2 Abrams tanks (half an armour platoon), 5 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (1 more than a full mechanized infantry platoon, last I checked) or 6 Apache attack helicopters (2 shy of half a squadron)… With a *Concerted* airlift operation you could realistically shift materiel for perhaps a couple batallions (2 organizational steps above a platoon) in a reasonably prompt amount of time…
…All the figures I’ve seen thus far for NATO forces, both those already deployed and those promised, amount to a handfull of batallion-sized groups, strung out from the Baltic states, through Poland, to Ukraine… – Perhaps an augmented brigade’s worth (2 steps above a batallion) of personnel and gear, *In Toto*, spread along a potential ~2,000 mile front…
…In a full-blown NATO/Russia shooting war you would expect to be talking about the involvement of *Multiple* divison- or corps-sized formations (respectively, 3 and 4 steps up from a batallion)… – To provide for these, *90%* of US Army/Marine Corps, and even UK and possibly some EU materiel, *At Least*, would need to come by sea…
…- Wake me when they start throwing about the term *Sealift* in the media, then dust the cobwebs off the old Cold War era ‘Reforger’ plan and start throwing together 20-50 ship convoys of merchants, military transports and amphibs in the 10-100 *Thousand* ton range and start sending them across the Atlantic… – And supposing that they actually *Do* go ahead and do that, then they *Will* *Immediately* run smack-dab into *This* ‘little’ problem:…
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/31/the-us-military-ran-the-largest-stress-test-of-its-sealift-fleet-in-years-its-in-big-trouble
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/10/08/the-army-is-preparing-to-fight-in-europe-but-can-it-even-get-there
…For a further in-depth overview of the issue, see the first 1/2-2/3’s of this piece:…
https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/sealift-is-americas-achilles-heel-in-the-age-of-great-power-competition
…Now personally, I am *Fed Up To The Back Teeth* with alla this perpetual “Ermageeerrd!! – World War 3’s About To Break Out In The Next 5 Minutes!” fear-porn *CRAP* goin’ on for the last decade or so… – So until I see *Incontrovertible* evidence to the contrary, I’ma just go right on ahead and assume that this is all just more of the same-ol’-same-ol’ Davostani agenda-driven narrative pantomimery that it *Always Is*, this time around happening to intersect and coincide with Ol’ Sleepy Joe’s cratering poll-ratings and imploding, malfunctional administration and domestic policy, just like these kinda US-centric/-instigated ‘foreign threat’ narratives *Always Are*… *SIGH*…
…- Right then!… – I’m off back to bed…
+1 and + 5 for a brilliantly written explanation.
Well, whatever’s going on: it justifies a nice lot of military industrial spending.
Imminent talk of a Russian ‘invasion’ should bear in mind that in both the Lugansk and Donetsk republics the overwhelming population is Russian; Russian speaking and holding Russian passports. Same in the Crimea. In fact anything on the eastern side of the Dnieper river is Russian speaking and not necessarily enamoured of the west Ukrainian Polish riff-raff on the other side of the river. If the Russians did invade the flags would be flown not just in the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk in the Donbass republics, but all the way to Kharkov, Odessa, Kherson, Mariupol and Zaparozhia.
Mother Russia already has welcomed Crimea home and nestling on her bosom. Kiev likewise will return to Mother in the ripeness of time. Meanwhile Mother is preparing to enjoy the Winter Olympics, while hefty guards at home stand ready to spank any naughty boys who might try to sneak up, break some windows and run away.
Britain is the Market Leader when it comes to False Flags.
We have a wealth of experience going back not just decades, but centuries.
Litvinenko, Skripal, White Helmets, Ghouta, Khan Sheikhoun ………….they’re all ours, going way back to the Zinoviev Letter and the Gunpowder Plot.
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Admittedly, in recent years we have had some pretty stiff competition from Israel (USS Liberty, Lavon Affair, 9/11 etc.), but we are still definitely Numero Uno.
+1
I used to think that America’s Joint Chiefs cadre of psychopaths and idiots surrounding John Kennedy – before he was ushered from this world – was clearly the biggest crew of amoral war mongers ever to grace leadership positions in our oh so “exceptional” nation. Unfortunately I keep having to revisit and revise that assessment quite regularly. It appears that today’s bat-shit crazy morons in charge of American foreign policy are argueably clinically insane – having carefully engineered a “reverse” Cuban Missle Crisis – yet in their madness they are somehow expecting a different ending.
All bets will be off when US soldiers are killed. Then the Deep State will get its wish of a full out war over there.
i NEVER thought I’d be on Biden’s side in anything, but this is just stupid – everybody seems to think that even an undefined ‘minor excursion’ should be a signal for the US to go all hair on fire and immediately no questions asked declare war on Russia – ????????????????? – too stupid to talk about, geez.
“Is any given bombing… the work of leftist extremists, or of extreme right-wing provocation, or staged by the centrists to bring every terrorist extreme into disrepute and to shore up its own failing power, or again, is it a police-inspired scenario in order to appeal to public security ? All this is equally true and the search for proof, indeed the objectivity of the fact does not stop this vertigo of interpretation. We are in a logic of simulation which has nothing to do with a logic of facts and an order of reasons.”…Simulations. Jean Baudrillard…
‘Such media contradictions not only can generate certain kinds of oppositional thinking, but also engender a wider form of cognitive dissonance that can alienate the public from administration and media newspeak. Nonetheless, the power of the state and media to set the agenda creates a circumscribed discourse that the public may repeat even though they are not convinced or assured of what they think.’,,, Terrorism and Media….
https://www.fifthestate.org/archive/323-summer-1986/terrorism-media/
The corporate media can lie, and it tell the truth. To the corporate propaganda media the only criteria is not whether something is a lie or true, but whether it can be weaponised. Even facts can be used to propagate a lie…(and that’s a fact.)
Headline: Omicron has given birth to a “stealth” variant.*
What’s it got to do with War Against Russia preparations ?
*Will it be the first of many little Omicrons ?
It is in the nature of viruses to mutate. The only difference between now and even a decade ago is that we’re able to rapidly sequence viruses so variants can be identified quickly. I don’t think its anything to get excited about.
Leave the lunatics to it.
Sane life must go on.
Just last month they (Putin, Biden etc) were best friends in lockstep decrying overrun health services on the verge collapse, locking their populace down over a slight sniffle and forcing their citizens to take a Jab concocted by their Pharma friends and now we’re supposed to believe they are mortal enemies!??!?
GTFOH!!!
They both piss in the same sink, it’s all kidology .
+10
Surprisingly all western media ignore Ukrainian government unequivocal refutation of claims of imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.donbass-insider.com/2022/01/26/bipolar-attitude-around-the-future-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-between-western-hysteria-and-apparent-calm-in-kiev/
Our military-industrial complex needs constant fear to sell weapons.
In general, Western media hews to the principle that “news organizations” must never let facts and evidence stand in the way of an approved, useful overclass narrative.
When a famous Hearst employee, artist Frederic Remington, cabled from Cuba in 1897 that “There will be no war,” William Randolph Hearst cabled back: “You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war.”
It’s not much of a leap to paraphrase Hearst into the default relationship between Western mass-media and the overclass: You furnish the narrative, and we’ll furnish the ‘facts’ and ‘evidence’.
The problem that NATO has with Ukraine is that Russia and Ukraine are like the US and Canada — they share a very long land border and both peoples share deep linguistic and cultural roots (and, I gather, a lot of relatives) plus a lot of shared history. This makes a classic invasion improbable. It also explains why Russia’s a bit sensitive about NATO setting up shop there (and, if a recent poll is to be believed, so are a lot of Ukrainians). Since NATO’s European partners include a the countries that invaded — and laid waste — the place in WW2 I can also see why NATO would not be too welcome in UKraine, especially in the east. (The Wehrmacht found this out in 1941 — they were first greeted as liberators in the west but resistance stiffened as they went east.)(Of course the pogroms and general maltreatment of the people also contributed.)
Our propaganda teams tell us that all NATO is behind the US except for Germany. I don’t expect them to understand that a lot of Germans have relatives, some still living, that served on the Eastern Front in WW2. Quite apart from the immense toll of death and destruction they caused — much of it deliberate — they also suffered from both the Red Army and the Russian climate. (Since much of the fighting during this war was in Ukraine ‘grossvater’ will have first hand experience of the conditions there.)
Propaganda also tells us all about the Russian invasion in 2014. Except there wasn’t an invasion. The Russian military was already in Crimea due to it being a long standing military area, it housed a the Russian Black Sea fleet for literally hundreds of years. (“The West” actually fought a war there in the 1850s, the “Crimea War” — Russia versus England, France and Turkey.) Some parts of Crimea were “Federal” areas, they were never part of Ukraine so its logical to assume that when the Kiev government changed hands after Maiden the Russians were not going to shut up shop and hand their Black Sea bases to NATO. As for Donbass, if you’re aware of WW2 history you’ll know that this area, known for its coal mines, identifies with Russia. Here I would expect a Russian incursion but only to prevent Ukraine hot heads from shelling towns and cities — too many people have died already in that region. The locals just will not accept outfits like the Azov Brigade — as far as they’re concerned, they’re SS. Some other solution is needed — Minsk, for example.
There’s nothing minor about a bullet in your chest, bodies of dead children or your home laying in rubble.
Sick, sick bastards.
If my 5 minutes with Google can be believed ….
the combined population of NATO countries = 945m
the population of Russia = 144m
the annual defence expenditure of Nato = $1049 billion
the annual defence expenditure of Russia = $69 billion
Yeah, sure Russia is trying to provoke NATO.
Besides, Russia doesn’t have to provoke NATO – it has Europe’s NATO nations in the palm of its hand: Nord Stream 2.
Europe needs Russia. Russia doesn’t need Europe. End of discussion.
I think it’s hilarious how so many readers of the “alt news” are so quick to call out propaganda of the mass media, on only certain issues, often calling out the massive influence of the Elite.
But then so quick to jump on the bandwagon for certain other issues.
Seemingly without regard to the same scrutiny & pessimism.
It could very well be that the CARTEL of globalist Elite whom are controlling the “covid” narrative are similarly controlling the Russia-Ukraine narrative.
Truly effective Propaganda is:
1) Not recognized as such (or it wouldn’t be truly effective); and,
2) Aimed firstly at supposed “Leaders”, first drawing them in, allowing them to better draw their followers in.
“If you can influence the leaders, either with or without their conscious cooperation, you automatically influence the group which they sway. But men do not need to be actually gathered together in a public meeting or in a street riot, to be subject to the influences of mass psychology. Because man is by nature gregarious he feels himself to be member of a herd, even when he is alone in his room with the curtains drawn. His mind retains the patterns which have been stamped on it by the group influences.”
-Edward Bernays – Propaganda (1928)-
People like Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky are just as big of puppets as is Biden (and all U.S. presidents).
No national “Leaders” are truly sovereign nor immune to external influence & forces.
Those that control the tens of trillions in global wealth control entire economies, thus politics & governance.
Divide & Conquer is not merely an effective intra-national tactic.
It works internationally as well.
+10
Unelated but IMPORTANT
Please donate to the Canadian Trucker Convoy against the mandates
tremendous traction here – the GoFundMe is over $5 million
dollars talk – legal support needed – must attack on all fronts while this beast is wounded
https://www.gofundme.com/f/taking-back-our-freedom-convoy-2022?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_campaign=m_pd+share-sheet
Eating Ossetra Caviar & Lobster thermidor drinking Dom Pérignon and the fuel is rocket fuel !!
$5,567,740 so far.
Just saying!!!!
Depends on how many truckers join this. When you factor in that many of them, if not all of them, will have families, mortgages, rent, food, etc, etc, etc I hardly think they’re getting rich or eating caviar. If there’s 300 of them they’ll “get” about $18K apiece, hardly a fortune for those with bills to pay. And then there is always that little tiny risk that they lose permanent jobs for being “extremist dissidents,” doncha know. But by all means, be sure to call their motives into question regarding money, whilst telling yourself you are doing what you can to stop this madness, typing away on a keyboard….
5.5 million doesn’t go far with 50,000 trucks traveling from all over the country, including US truckers. 70km convoy left BC Jan, 25 am; 26km convoy left NB.
Phantasm: Phuk Off.
Especially when it has been blocked and they cannot access it.
…- And divided by 50,000 (and rising…) that amount comes to a lick over 110 bucks per trucker, so what was your point again?…
Actually do not donate, as GoFrigMe have blocked the money to the truck drivers. There is an article in today’s RT.
Dementia Joe represents the complete and total depravity of the US political class. This situation has been brewing since the US spent $5 billion on a coup d’état to topple the duly elected government of Ukraine and install a neo-Nazi quisling regime. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
The notion Biden can foment a “manageable war” is laughable. Biden can’t find his own shoes. Russia will respond decisively just like they did when Putin came to Assad’s aid in Syria and when Putin crushed the US instigated uprising in South Ossetia. Putin will do what he has to to protect Russian security, period.
Biden’s foolishness puts all of Europe in jeopardy and the world sees it. Only the US media and the propaganda apparatus are blind to the insanity of Biden’s policies. Defense spending and war profiteering aside, the ruling class must do something, the implosion of the US economy is eminent, the planned social dissolution of the country is well advanced and Biden is being blamed for all that is wrong in the empire. Do not be surprised if the crazies in D.C. New York and their Deep State cohorts do something rash that spirals out of control into a worse case scenario for the planet. The good news is Sleepy Joe said the US will not send troops to Ukraine (he may send mercenaries) and the NATO sock puppets know they cannot deploy enough troops to win a fight with Russia. Neither the US nor NATO will be able to do to Russia what they did to Yugoslavia so an air war is out of the question. Be prepared for more saber rattling and threats
What you said.
Also, I’m not sure that The Ghost of Joe Biden (Barely) Present’s remark can accurately be called a “quip”.
To me, “quip” presumes a conscious, sentient, relatively self-aware and sophisticated use of language.
My impression is that with considerable chemical and/or technical assistance, The Ghost is capable of limited spontaneous speech. But his “asides” are reminiscent of ejaculations from a percolating stream of semi-consciousness.
“…an air war is out of the question”
…- Welp, it sure do look that way!:…
https://www.rt.com/news/547432-us-f-35-upgrade-deficient
(…I note, en passant and with continuing amusement, the latest chapter in the ongoing saga that is Lockheed Martin’s *Highly* elaborate and *Unprecedentedly* expensive practical joke upon the taxpayers of NATO-member and allied countries the world over ($1.7Tn, and counting…) – Yes folks, it’s that time of the week again!… – Welcome to episode #6,427,191 of The Ef’d Turdy-Five Show!…)
(…- PS: Maybe when the great economic collapse *Finally* hits, laid-off former Lockheed employees could always just learn to code?… 😉 )
circus for the slaves
Read “Command and Control” by Eric Schlosser – the yanks think that they can initiate a limited nuclear exchange, negotiate, do it again if the Russians refuse to surrender, rinse, repeat. Whereas the Russian think that if they are attacked with nukes then they will not hold back for a ping you, ping me game, they will nuke those who issued the commands – i.e. London, Washington, New York, Los Angeles, San Franscisco, Chicago, etc.