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The Long Game of Tony Blair: From Climate Optimism to Technocratic Control

David Fleming

In the final weeks of his time as UK Prime Minister in 2007, Tony Blair made an oddly casual but revealing remark about the climate crisis.

“Don’t worry about the climate — technology will fix it.”

At the time, it seemed like a vague gesture. A reassuring message from a departing leader trying to bridge realism and optimism.

Eighteen years later, we now know what he meant.

On April 29, 2025, the Tony Blair Institute published a new climate strategy paper titled The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change.

At first glance, it appears to be a critique of current Net Zero policies — admitting they’re economically toxic, politically unpopular, and practically unworkable.

But on closer reading, it reveals something much more significant:

a polished blueprint for a global technocratic control system, built in the name of solving climate change through data, automation, and artificial intelligence.

The Switch: From Public Sacrifice to AI Control

Blair and his Institute are not abandoning Net Zero.

They are reframing it — from a movement of public sacrifice to a system of top-down automation.

The paper recommends:

  • Abandoning political targets and messy global summits (like COP)
  • Replacing them with coalitions of major powers, guided by scientists, financiers, and engineers
  • Deploying artificial intelligence to manage energy consumption across entire societies
  • Scaling up carbon capture technology, not just to reduce emissions — but to create new markets and credit systems
  • Redirecting global finance into tech-based solutions, bypassing democratic input entirely

What’s notably absent?

  • Democratic consent
  • National sovereignty
  • Any reference to freedom or privacy

It’s a plan not to empower humanity — but to manage it.

Digital Identity in Everything But Name

Though the report doesn’t use the words “digital ID,” the implication is everywhere.

Tony Blair has spent nearly two decades advocating for biometric and digital identity systems.

The vision in this report — AI-managed energy, carbon-based currencies, global coordination of behaviour — is impossible without a system to track, identify, and manage individuals.

Which means:

  • Your energy use will be measured
  • Your carbon impact will be calculated
  • Your lifestyle choices will be assessed by machine logic
  • Your access to energy, services, or money may soon depend on what your profile allows

This isn’t climate policy.

It’s the construction of a permissioned society — one that you don’t vote for, but are born into.

A Convenient Blackout

Strangely — or perhaps perfectly — the Blair report was published just one day after a massive, historic power outage plunged Spain and Portugal into darkness.

At its peak, 60% of Spain’s electricity was offline.

Cities froze. Trains stopped. Stores closed. Communication collapsed.

The cause? Likely a grid instability linked to over-reliance on solar and wind — the exact problem Blair claims his AI-optimised systems can fix.

Whether coincidence or choreography, the blackout was the perfect backdrop for a sales pitch:

“See? The old system is failing. Trust us with the new one.”

The Controlled Collapse Narrative

Blair is not alone.

  • Donald Trump is attacking Net Zero from the right, calling it a disaster for the economy and energy independence.
  • Kemi Badenoch and the UK Conservatives are now walking back climate targets, citing cost and unrest.
  • Across Europe, support for green policies is collapsing under the weight of energy failures and rising bills.

But here’s the trick: this isn’t a collapse. It’s a handover.

Blair’s plan steps in as the “sensible alternative” — not to abandon climate governance, but to make it automatic, algorithmic, and unchallengeable.

The message is no longer “cut back to save the planet.”

Now it’s:

“Relax. You don’t have to change anything. The system will change you.”

The Real Danger

Blair’s 2007 promise — “technology will fix it” — has finally been fulfilled.

But not in the way anyone hoped.

This isn’t innovation that empowers people.

It’s technology as enforcement.

It’s infrastructure not to serve humanity, but to steer it — quietly, constantly, and without appeal.

What was once a public mission has become a technocratic machine.

And that machine now has a face.

David Fleming is an environmental health professional by training and has also worked on the marketing side of a top Formula One team. Since March 2020, he has been a founding force behind several major initiatives including the Covid19 Assembly, Together Declaration (which he left shortly after its launch), Not Our Future, and the Independent Alliance. He is now preparing to launch a new project focused on human continuity. David also writes for his own (brand new) Substack, which you can read HERE.

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Proton Magic
Proton Magic
May 8, 2025 4:55 AM

David, you keep saying Blair this and Blair that. You did not once mention that he just the hand puppet face of the powers in world control which should be obvious. Why do you want to keep the focus on an idiot like Blair?

You also didn’t mention the end game of technocracy: living in smart cities (AKA concentration camps) which will control the population numbers and their longevity (a type of genocide). It has nothing to do with CO2 which is not warming the planet-leaving the climate crisis believing reader to think it’s all a good thing.

red lester
red lester
May 6, 2025 1:59 PM

A chilling report here on Tony Liar and the usual suspects at a clown thinking BS exercise:

https://thewinepress.substack.com/p/oracles-larry-ellison-wants-to-unify

iWatcher
iWatcher
May 5, 2025 11:53 AM

Looking at his face, it’s very clear that his evil deeds are eating him from the inside, victim of the same age old Faustian bargain many people of different generations have fell for…

Marb
Marb
May 4, 2025 8:27 AM

that pic aarghh .. the Face of Pure Evil.. hubris too

Republicofscotland
Republicofscotland
May 3, 2025 11:18 AM

AI will also/is now, being used to cloud seed certain countries – in order to steal precious rains from countries that need it, causing famine and death in those countries – which will be badly impacted- and will comply without a single shot being fired into them.

AI will definitely be weaponised against us – but not in the form of a gun, it will be as you say used domestically (energy- ID, tracking, online activities etc) against us to make us more compliant – and our phones will play a big part in our subservience.

richard
richard
May 2, 2025 9:10 PM

The author of the above article does not dispute the man-made climate change scam only the way it is handled???

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:23 PM

Trump has other ideas…so basically fuck Britain!

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 3, 2025 11:21 PM
Reply to  Scoobis

In principal I agree, but you and many would be un-pleasantly surprised if you knew how many British hands and how deep these British hands are buried in the geo-political soup, without the stupid, noisy and superficial Americans know it.

TaxHaven
TaxHaven
May 2, 2025 5:09 PM

“Man-made climate change” is a RELIGION.

These people are obsessed by it; along with “inequality” it torments them constantly

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 7:51 PM
Reply to  TaxHaven

Voltairenet.org has a splendid article on the CO2 story.

In only 2 A4 pages Therry reveal the background docs for the CO2 story enough for any serious Court.

Its a Financíal cash cow! https://www.voltairenet.org/article208187.html Oct.2019.

Resume: ……….In the second place, the Climate Exchange Plc has proposed a system that aims to punish the emitters of CO2. 

In this way, you would want to combat global warming, even though the CO2 is only one of the many gases that affect the climate. 

First to Chicago, then to London, Montreal, Tianjin and Sidney were open Bags of the Climate. 

Well, the Climate Exchange PLC was founded by a former director of Goldman Sachs bank, as well as former US vice-president Albert Gore. The charter was drawn up by a lawyer at the time, the unknown, the future president of the United States Barack Obama [8]. 

In essence, the fear of the warming climate allows a few powerful people, and only them, to enrich themselves.

In conclusion: the effects of the withdrawal of U.S. military from the Middle East are verifiable both on the us economy is on the peace in the region. The effects of CO2 on climate are hypothetical and, in any case, marginal.

Weirdpeter
Weirdpeter
May 2, 2025 10:54 AM

Technocracy is being delivered in swaddling clothes, but is not the new savior of humanity. It is the stuff that nightmares are made.

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:24 PM
Reply to  Weirdpeter

Swaddling clothes full of sinking shit!

TaxHaven
TaxHaven
May 3, 2025 4:56 PM
Reply to  Weirdpeter

Technocracy movement – Wikipedia

The idea of a world best run by “experts” has a LONG history

my ways are not theirs
my ways are not theirs
May 2, 2025 12:25 AM

to the sales pitch they’ll have to add a catchy theme song

I suggest “Back in the USSR”

after all, this is at root just a reboot of the glorious Five-Year Plans from the good old days

replace the enlightened insights of Taylorism and the Hegelian dialectic that were the pole star of Stalin & Co with Climate Science and quantum algorithms, replace the NKVD with CBDCs, and it’s déjà vu all over again!

The Real Edwige
The Real Edwige
May 2, 2025 8:36 AM

Add show trials to the list of features both have in common.

It’s a curious thing but who did Stalin select as a lawyer in the USA but Dean Acheson! Later as Truman’s Secretary of State was he was one of the founding architects of “the Cold War” – including his “oops, I’ve accidentally started the Korean War” moment that was recycled with April Glasbie and Iraq.

les online
les online
May 1, 2025 10:51 PM

I thought Tony was dead !

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 1, 2025 11:46 PM
Reply to  les online

Yes! Incredible this Jumping Jack fossil can continue to pop his head up everywhere.

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:26 PM
Reply to  Erik Nielsen.

Like Hitlery?

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:25 PM
Reply to  les online

He is at a Biden living level…

aspnaz
aspnaz
May 1, 2025 10:49 PM

Blair was one of the puppets used to usher in the current malaise in the west; why would anyone still be listening to this puppet other than to try to work out what his owners are doing. The one thing we know about Blair is that he does not care one jot for the UK, for poor people, for the planet. He is a bought and paid for sellout; he is not alone, but he is one of the slimiest ones.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 7:54 PM
Reply to  aspnaz

….and here in public we are doing our best to tell it in a kindly way.

ariel
ariel
May 5, 2025 12:55 PM
Reply to  Erik Nielsen.

extnic
extnic
May 1, 2025 10:28 PM

He has aged well.

Marfanoid
Marfanoid
May 1, 2025 10:12 PM

The Return of Tony Blair part ?

Gladius
Gladius
May 1, 2025 9:23 PM

The British Group for the Study of the Juche Idea (BGSJI) and the Korean Friendship Association of the UK(KFAUK ) issued a joint statement on the occasion of the 89th anniversary of the foundation of the Association for the Restoration of the Fatherland by the great leader President Kim Il Sung”

Ahahaha Juche in UK? oldies but goodies

KiwiJoker
KiwiJoker
May 1, 2025 9:14 PM

Or…

“Don’t worry about the technology — Earth’s dramatically fluctuating electromagnetic fields and the Sun’s coronal mass ejections, along with unprecedented solar storms injecting super plasma plumes into the weakening magnetic field, will fix it.”
.

Chris Chadwick
Chris Chadwick
May 1, 2025 7:56 PM

Bliar looks like he’s trying to be Eastwood.
“I’ve killed women and children and just about everything that walked or crawled. And now I’m here to kill you little person. For what you said about Israel”
Little person: “See you in hell”
Bliar: “Yeah”

aspnaz
aspnaz
May 1, 2025 10:51 PM
Reply to  Chris Chadwick

He has that same “ball sack” face thing going on as Eastwood.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 8:24 PM
Reply to  aspnaz

No, I cant follow you guys. “Tony Blair look and act just like Clint Eastwood“?
Excuse me but this one is too far outside my imagination.

Chris Chadwick
Chris Chadwick
May 3, 2025 7:22 PM
Reply to  Erik Nielsen.

Don’t get me wrong – I love Clint Eastwood’s movies. I just thought Bliar looks like a later Clint in the photo. Believe me, I’m no fan of, ahem, Mr Charles Lynton. 😉

rickypop
rickypop
May 1, 2025 7:24 PM

He is not looking too good.
He would look a hell of a lot worse if he had spent his due time in jail.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 1, 2025 11:52 PM
Reply to  rickypop

He is 72, meaning you will see his staccato laughing face on every TV News the World all over the next 10-15 years.

MartinU
MartinU
May 1, 2025 6:23 PM

Stripped down to the basics all they’re talking about is good, old fashioned, rationing. In our free market world we naturally assume we have choice but our rationing isn’t done by coupons or anything like that, its done by price, with price being adjusted to give the best mix of profit for the supplier for the amount of commodity use.

The problem is really “Who gets to decide?”. We have to manage and conserve resource use, this has been known for well over a century, but under our present economic system it trends to the majority living in a sort of dystopia while our leaders and their sponsors consume whatever they want. Think “Soylent Green” — the movie, not the product — as the model. We have the power to change this formula if we would only exercise it. After all, an individual’s needs are actually quite small, just some shelter, food, something meaningful to do, with most of their productive effort being needed to maintain social parasites who feel entitled to their lifestyle. (One way of thinking about this is a model proposed some time back, a model similar to some Central American states, where the country is ‘owned’ by a handful of families, the middle classes exist to service and defend their interests and the rest are tolerated, a bit like a herd of animals, productive but available to be culled if they prove a nuisance.)

antonym
antonym
May 1, 2025 5:03 PM

Bliar is of the typical WEF mental type. AI is not going to save them as GI = GO.

Jonathan
Jonathan
May 1, 2025 4:38 PM

Nearly all the improvement in quality of life in the 20th century came from fossil fuels and private motoring.

Now they are taking both away from us because they don’t want us having quality of life if it means us plebs using THEIR resources. Not even if we slave and pay for it.

First there will be rationing (though it won’t be called that), then they will deny us these things completely, making us serfs again.

And the crazy part? Many people are cheering it on.

Lamandamana
Lamandamana
May 1, 2025 6:22 PM
Reply to  Jonathan

They don’t ration. With co2 markets everything will just become so expensive and thus unobtainable for anyone not in the upper 1-2%

SeamusPadraig
SeamusPadraig
May 2, 2025 1:45 PM
Reply to  Lamandamana

Rigging the markets is just another form of rationing.

Jos
Jos
May 1, 2025 8:38 PM
Reply to  Jonathan

Because they don’t understand what’s going on because their main source of information continues to offer up lies on a daily basis. Can you even be sure of the truth of what you believe any more? The so-called ‘awake’ or ‘enlightened’ are struggling right now to get a handle on what’s going on. What do they want of us now? Why do they want this to happen? We’re all in the dark just different levels of dark. I suspect that the light at the end of the tunnel is a going to be a big f-ing bonfire of the vanities.

rickypop
rickypop
May 1, 2025 10:20 PM
Reply to  Jonathan

1972 Scottish Mainstream Early Evening News:
Bobby Crawford (Carluke) developed a fuel technique and drove a car from Glasgow to London on a pint of fuel. With a reporter on board. The car was stripped and checked by the News team with no hidden tanks.
This fact has been missed by many and makes a mockery of the News team who were told to bury it. That along with the gullible fools that accept authority and the climate change shite, that is our real problem. This is as bad as Teslas Free energy stolen by JP Morgan (Rothschild stooge). We are paying trillions to these energy companies and corrupt governments…For what?
Believe fk all in this corrupt world. The Psycos are running the asylum.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 12:35 AM
Reply to  rickypop

The energy companies are not the bad boys in this part.

After all they are hard working on oil platforms in the North Sea and elsewhere. They gasoline stations all over the country, and pump your cars and tractors, and do a civil work for society.

Its the Finance sucker guys who are making these fraud schemes.

underground poet
underground poet
May 3, 2025 12:41 AM
Reply to  rickypop

Ruining the asylum, fix it for ya

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:28 PM
Reply to  Jonathan

They haven’t taken anything yet…and good luck trying

underground poet
underground poet
May 3, 2025 12:43 AM
Reply to  Scoobis

Except you are going to GET a war

I_left_the_left
I_left_the_left
May 3, 2025 2:14 AM
Reply to  Jonathan

Why crazy? The whole point of mind control is to gain popular support for globalist government agendas. After decades of fear-mongering, millions of westerners and beyond really do fear climate crisis, and so cheer on politicians offering salvation.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 3, 2025 11:30 PM

Climate crisis = Finance crisis.
See how incredible intelligent the public are? They maybe not knowing it, but they feel the behind agenda behind it.

Rhys Jaggar
Rhys Jaggar
May 1, 2025 3:38 PM

The rules according to the psychopath Blair:

‘I am so superior that I am allowed to murder 1 million brown people without accountability, but none of you are allowed to beat me up, break my neck or kill my children’.

‘I can travel whenever I wish and you can’t stop me, but if you try to travel, we will stop you at source’.

One wonders whether humans will tolerate this or simply see Blair as a piece of ‘Acceptable Collateral Damage’…..

NixonScraypes
NixonScraypes
May 1, 2025 10:09 PM
Reply to  Rhys Jaggar

I’m confident that our Tony doesn’t give a damn what colour his victims are, the same as any psycho.

underground poet
underground poet
May 3, 2025 12:45 AM
Reply to  NixonScraypes

All cliffs have the same coyotee effect, you don’t see the pile up at the bottom until its too late.

Gladius
Gladius
May 1, 2025 2:31 PM

Ok Teflon Tony. You better admit that the City guys stuck their hand up your ass and now they’re using you as a sock puppet.

Jos
Jos
May 1, 2025 8:43 PM
Reply to  Gladius

They’re all Teflon coated – Hancock / Cummings / Harding / Epstein / his royal ‘hi miss’ All scumbags. All still wandering this god-forsaken world. They sowed and they reaped. When will there be a harvest for the world?

Gladius
Gladius
May 1, 2025 9:29 PM
Reply to  Jos

Very realistic message. Respect for that!
Please include the leaders of EU countries in the equation for a better overview.

ariel
ariel
May 5, 2025 1:07 PM
Reply to  Jos

You can see the outer damage, but you can’t see the inner so easily.
The wheel goes round.
If you drink adrenochrome, you get an extra ten years in a wheelchair.
It’s clear that we should be asking exactly why, and for WHAT, are we here at such a time.
We can genuinely call it the APOCALYPSE, because the hidden stuff is being revealed to anyone who is watching and listening.

judith
judith
May 1, 2025 1:35 PM

“It’s not a collapse, it’s a hand-over.” Perfect.

Like healthcare, infrastructure, education, finance, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

May Hem
May Hem
May 1, 2025 11:42 AM

For any technology to work it needs power. Spain’s power failures are likely to become more frequent, along with increasing blackouts in UK and the rest of Europe. A1 data centres will need massive amounts of power (and water). Citizens/residents will be last on the list of those allocated any remaining power, and only for those who have been obeying the New World Order’s latest rules.

This writer knows his subject and gives us a glimpse of our likely future.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/04/30/the-problem-squared/

Veri Tas
Veri Tas
May 1, 2025 11:12 PM
Reply to  May Hem

AI data centre will need massive amounts of power and water. Yes. Which is why we won’t be getting much of it. It will be rationed and tied to our social credit score.

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:29 PM
Reply to  Veri Tas

Given up already have we?

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 8:35 PM
Reply to  Scoobis

We cant do a shit about it. We can only pull our pants down and bend over.

Then they can do what they want. We cant do anything against it. We are defenseless.
If they pay me good, I will do anything they demand because then it is they who said it that I should do it, and not me who said it!

I_left_the_left
I_left_the_left
May 3, 2025 2:17 AM
Reply to  Erik Nielsen.

Resistance is useless, so you need to write posts about it? Make it make sense.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 3, 2025 11:34 PM

I have to defend my own cowardice. Why I am a coward has a good reason. If I can earn money out of cowardice, I have won.

Lost in a dark wood
Lost in a dark wood
May 1, 2025 11:38 AM

Blair is not alone.

Fleming is probably correct about Blair, but the insinuation that the others are “in it together” is garbage. Rather, they have other reasons and agendas in challenging the climate scam.

Rolling Rock
Rolling Rock
May 1, 2025 11:19 AM

As sure as night follows day, Teflon Tone is guaranteed to rise up out of his crypyt to preach to the peons.

This time throwing them a bone on the climate issue. Good plebs who keep their thermostat at 15C (59F) in the middle of winter and walk or bike everywhere will be rewarded with ‘prizes’. Perhaps, a one week holiday in ‘sunny’ Skegness or Blackpool.

Naughty plebs will have their energy allowance cut off and can stay warm wrapped up in thermals and blankets while sitting around a rationed candle. When it gets really, really cold they light it.

Meanwhile, Tony and his pals, when they are not jetting off around the world, will be relaxing at home in their spas enjoying their heated swimming pools with their homes heated to a balmy 25C in winter or chilled in summer to a refreshing 20C.

Johnny
Johnny
May 1, 2025 12:27 PM
Reply to  Rolling Rock

Hypocrisy from the $uiturd$?
Surely not.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 8:39 PM
Reply to  Rolling Rock

In this short 75 year life we all have here on earth, we each have to take care of ourselves Mr. Rock. You are only whining because you are not in the receiving end.

If you were sitting in hot spa with a hot drink like me in this moment, you would definitely think different.

Rolling Rock
Rolling Rock
May 2, 2025 10:13 PM
Reply to  Erik Nielsen.

Erik old boy, I am “whining” as you put it, because I want to be able to heat my house, my hot tub or whatever else I fancy without some vampiric ghoul and his ilk telling me what I can and cannot do while they do as they please.

By the way, why are you drinking a hot drink in a hot tub? Are you hanging out with penguins and polar bears?

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 3, 2025 11:48 PM
Reply to  Rolling Rock

Its called sauna and its cheap.
Because it rime.
Some times yes.

les online
les online
May 1, 2025 11:06 AM

AI – to manage your energy consumption
AI – to manage your water consumption
AI – to manage your food consumption
AI – to manage your life, your health ,
and decide your Expiry Date…

Clutching at straws
Clutching at straws
May 1, 2025 9:44 AM

Excellent analysis.

This makes sense the whole climate shtick.

Miliband is the fall guy. To be rewarded by Davos for taking the inevitable fall.

Thom
Thom
May 1, 2025 9:38 AM

I suspect a clue is in the Guardian if you read between the lines:

“It’s the anti net-zero, anti-woke Tony Blair – how was this man ever considered a progressive?”
Zoe Williams

It’s dog-whistling by the Guardian when even the Guardian itself at election time a year ago hailed Blair as the epitome of being a successful “progressive”, and were virtually resurrecting “Things can only get better”. So if the Guardian are saying that Blair isn’t ‘a progressive’ then readers would assume that that ‘must’ a) suggest that the Tory-lite Starmer is in fact progressive by contrast to Blair (useful in a local election week) or b) that Net Zero doesn’t necessarily need to be a policy supported by “progressive” – therefore a row-back from the voodoo science. Above all, what the Guardian can’t allow to happen is Trump and others to be proved correct, so Blair is put up, almost certainly by the ‘deep state’.

The Real Edwige
The Real Edwige
May 1, 2025 11:48 AM
Reply to  Thom

What’s Blair done to be considered “anti-woke”?

BTW the Fraud hasn’t been that keen on Blair for a long time, probably always. It’s Gordon Brown they love. It’s like those who love The Rolling Stones but claim they can’t stand Mick Jagger, it’s because of Keef.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 3, 2025 11:54 PM

So we have insulted your hero highest and hurt yr feelings. Its just, Its just, Tony is a little too British. The International traveller…..but in what ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdLYMqAVZ6Q

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:31 PM
Reply to  Thom

Guardian appears to be made up of primarily TDS handicapped wannabe intellectuals

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 8:43 PM
Reply to  Scoobis

Do you read Guardian as your daily morning news?

James Lewis
James Lewis
May 1, 2025 9:22 AM

Thanks for bringing this to our attention, its much appreciated!!

Johnny
Johnny
May 1, 2025 9:08 AM

Blair, like most of his ilk, is addicted to his own persona. And self enrichment of course.
Every utterance he makes drips with vanity and deviousness.

A techno fix for a living, breathing, evolving planet?

For fuck’s sake, GET REAL.

brianborou
brianborou
May 1, 2025 9:02 AM

Spain and Portugal’s Blackout Reveals the Achilles’ Heel of Electricity Grids Dominated by Wind and Solar
..the catastrophic failure aligns perfectly with warnings that power grid experts have been sounding for years: systems with high penetrations of solar and wind generation have diminished mechanical inertia and are inherently vulnerable to collapse.

The inertia problem nobody wants to discuss

Spain’s electrical grid, once a model of reliability, has undergone a radical transformation over the past decade. Conventional power plants with massive spinning turbines – the kind that naturally resist frequency changes and provide crucial stability – have been systematically replaced with weather-dependent solar panels and wind turbines that contribute virtually no inertia to the system.

The result? A grid that may function adequately under ideal conditions but remains perilously susceptible to rapid destabilization when faced with disturbances.

Anatomy of a collapse
Initial reports from Spain grid operator Red Eléctrica indicate that ‘oscillations’ in the network triggered the cascade of failures. This technical language obscures a simpler truth: the system likely lacked sufficient physical inertia to withstand a relatively routine disturbance.

The data reveals the shocking speed and scale of the collapse. Real-time generation data shows that before the blackout, Spain’s grid was operating with an extremely renewables-heavy mix, including 18,068 MW from solar PV (by far the largest contributor at approximately 54% of domestic generation) and 3,643 MW from wind.

By contrast, conventional synchronous generation sources provided minimal output: nuclear at 3,388 MW, hydro at 3,171 MW, and combined cycle at just 1,633 MW.

After the collapse, the generation mix shifted dramatically as operators struggled to restore the system. Total demand dropped from ~27 GW to just ~16 GW.

Interestingly, nuclear generation disappeared completely from the generation stack, confirming that these plants – typically considered the most reliable part of the generation fleet – were forced to disconnect entirely during the event. Solar PV output fell by more than half to 8,236 MW, while other sources like wind and hydro saw similar reductions.

What is system inertia and why does it matter?

System inertia is the inherent resistance to sudden frequency changes provided by the kinetic energy stored in rotating masses of conventional power plants. When a disturbance occurs, this inertia automatically slows the rate of frequency change, giving operators crucial seconds to respond. 

Consider the difference between a heavily ballasted ship and a lightweight vessel in rough seas. The former can absorb massive waves without capsizing, while the latter remains dangerously vulnerable to sudden squalls.

Power system engineers have been warning about the high penetration of renewables and the inertia-related risk for years. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) has been sounding increasingly urgent alarms about declining system inertia.

Their studies methodically demonstrate that as renewable generation increases, the reduction in rotating mass weakens the grid’s natural ability to resist frequency disturbances and they’ve identified a critical vulnerability: when renewable generation dominates the mix, the resulting low rotating mass and insufficient inertia create conditions where frequency disturbances can accelerate rapidly – precisely the pre-failure conditions that existed in Spain’s grid before today’s collapse. Indeed, these conditions mirror the vulnerabilities observed in previous European events, such as the 2021 Iberian Peninsula separation.

The path forward
A sensible approach to any energy transition would be to prioritize maintaining adequate system inertia through a mix of conventional generation. New technologies must be carefully tested and validated before widespread deployment. Grid stability isn’t merely a technical detail; it’s the foundation of our civilization.

Spain and Portugal’s Blackout Reveals the Achilles’ Heel of Electricity Grids Dominated by Wind and Solar – The Daily Sceptic

MartinU
MartinU
May 1, 2025 6:31 PM
Reply to  brianborou

Its not wind or solar that’s the problem. Its economics. Renewables require extensive investment in either storage or maintaining backup fossil fuel plants to manage demand peaks and troughs. Our business models don’t allow for idle assets — everything has to be made “Just In Time”, run right up against the stops for maximum profitability. This reduces its resilience.

You can’t mix “the free market” with essentials like utilities because the goals are diametrically opposite. If you try the result is — predictably — sky high prices and unreliable service. Conservation becomes just a tool to convince people that paying more for less is a Good Thing (and its always cheaper to pay PR personnel or politicians than it is to invest in infrastructure).

brianborou
brianborou
May 2, 2025 9:09 AM
Reply to  MartinU

There is a lot of truth in what you have stated, however, the problems as explained in the article remain. The infrastructure for ” renewables ” is drastically lacking. Moreover, the notion that Solar or Wind energy can defy the prevailing weather conditions has not been fully addressed.

Yes, The US is a prime example of “You can’t mix “the free market” with essentials like utilities “

Texas’ Privatized Power Grid is a Disaster 20 Years in the Making

While most Texans have long since grown used to lukewarm Christmases and balmy weather by the New Year, February 2021 brought with it an onslaught of freezing temperatures and unprecedented weather conditions that left millions of Texas residents without power, water, or any real idea how to navigate the situation they found themselves in….

Unfortunately, Texas is no stranger to unimaginable weather. 2017’s Hurricane Harvey swamped most of the Houston area with unparalleled rainfall and flooding.

Texas’ Privatized Power Grid is a Disaster 20 Years in the Making – The Megaphone

Sam - Admin2
Admin
Sam - Admin2
May 2, 2025 11:56 AM
Reply to  brianborou

You’re getting into the habit here of block quoting straight from the link you’re sharing without indicating this properly. This is not very considerate to the site you’re linking to, you’re robbing it of clicks and fair attribution. It’s also wasteful of space on Offg. It’s unnecessary, please stop doing this.

Please put in the effort to state things in your own words, or keep quotes short and clearly labeled. Thank you, A2

brianborou
brianborou
May 3, 2025 2:56 PM
Reply to  Sam - Admin2

Which post are you referring to ?

Is it this one or all of them. Please specify.

In many instances, I have put previous articles into my own words with evidence.

Sam - Admin2
Admin
Sam - Admin2
May 3, 2025 4:52 PM
Reply to  brianborou

These last two comments for sure. If you could avoid making a habit of this it’d be great. Thanks! 🙂 A2

brianborou
brianborou
May 3, 2025 9:11 PM
Reply to  Sam - Admin2

OK Sam, point taken.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 12:05 AM
Reply to  brianborou

Spain’s renewable energy Sol/Wind reached 25% of total energy consumption in 2023. Target is 33% as of 2030.
I didnt knew they were that stupid. But off course this could be the reason for black out. Sol/wind is unreliable energy period!

You know why they are shifting from oil/gas to sol/wind? Because too much gas and oil have been found. Its simply too cheap.
Sol/wind is the most risky awful expensive energy you can do.

brianborou
brianborou
May 2, 2025 9:23 AM
Reply to  Erik Nielsen.

They are shifting to ” green ” energy because of large amounts of cash are being pumped into the system to make it seem more lucrative to use.

Solar and wind have their places but only as a secondary system.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 2, 2025 8:45 PM
Reply to  brianborou

Agree.

Francis
Francis
May 2, 2025 4:56 AM
Reply to  brianborou

You are just puppeting talking points. Your argument is a diversion. Spain lost its power because of Elephant Revenge. Now guess what Elephants are.

Scoobis
Scoobis
May 2, 2025 5:32 PM
Reply to  Francis

The cast of the View?

brianborou
brianborou
May 3, 2025 8:22 AM
Reply to  Francis

Can you please provide evidence to support your assertions.

Erik Nielsen.
Erik Nielsen.
May 4, 2025 12:02 AM
Reply to  Francis

A beer? The Elephant beer.