Let’s talk about…Here we go again, Iran War 2.0

So, the War in Iran gets renewed for a second season. This morning, at the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump told reporters the ceasefire was “over” and the Iranian regime were “scum”.

A quick timeline on the war so far:

– It began on February 28th.
– It went into a “ceasefire” on April 8th.
– It ended on June 17th.
– It started again yesterday.

It was a modern war in that it was largely an affectation without depth or meaning. They did what you do when wars happen, but without the real parts. No clear aims or motives, no victory conditions, no tactics. Just bombs and jingoism to no purpose.

So, what happens now it’s starting up again?

Well, I guess energy prices go up. Again. The US has apparently already pulled the sanctions waiver that was part of the ceasefire deal, so 63 million barrels of oil are “stranded” in the Persian Gulf.

The oil price jumped 5% overnight.

Anybody aware of these things beforehand probably made a lot of money on the market. But I’m sure that doesn’t happen.

Trump has promised to “hit Iran hard” tonight, and Iran in turn threatened to “paralyse the global oil flow” (which they can’t do, since 80% of global oil never goes through the Strait of Hormuz) and expand the war into the Red Sea.

What exactly they mean by that is yet to be seen; I would assume increased fighting in Lebanon and Yemen from “Iran-backed” militias Hezbollah and the Houthis.

There was talk, prior to the interim peace deal, of the Houthis closing the Straits of Bab-el-Mandeb. That’s what the Council on Foreign Relations was worried about, anyway.

On the face of it this doesn’t seem possible, but this “war” narrative threw rationality out the window at a very early stage.

In its first act, the war was essentially rounds of air strike tennis, with the clear aim of sealing the Strait of Hormuz. Will this just be more of the same?

Will they “expand” the war to the Red Sea?
Will we see “boots on the ground” this time?
Will they, perhaps, finally decide what they’re supposedly trying to achieve?

Discuss in the comments below.

This is a developing story, we’ll update as needed.

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