America’s agenda is very different
By Alexey Bogoslovsky, Russian blogger
In general, my reasoning that a little war should take place in the winter, somewhat unexpectedly came true – the Ukie warriors were beaten to its start. It’s hard to say how much were they late in January, when the informal agreements were dumped and [the rebels] took the Donetsk airport. Then the Ukrainians were overtaken at Debaltsevo again.
But why worry now? April has not come yet. It’s not even about the road-destroying spring thaw. This winter had very little snow. At the beginning of April everything will be dry in Donbas, equipment will be able to roll everywhere.
It is simple: 9 May has turned into a cult of political nature. So if the [Ukraininans] start fighting, then it should be done in a way that it doesn’t all end by May 9. This is like the war with Georgia. [Reasonably,] Saakashvili had to wait until the winter and have the mountain passes blocked by snow; but the Beijing Olympics began on August 8. Give us a picture for the media and to the joy of the United States! Most likely, they won’t start until April 15, the Ukies won’t lose much more than Mariupol, here I’m quite sure about Putin’s intentions.
Poroshenko already understood everything, and requests the introduction of international peacekeepers. But he is unlikely to get them, as the game has changed – publicly everyone is for a settlement according to the Obama plan (for us it is called Putin’s Clever Plan), in fact, foreign peacekeepers will never come without guarantees that they would not be accidentally hit by some MLRS. But Poroshenko needs another round of war to prove that his efforts to solve the problem of Donbas only by military means will still be in vain. He cares little about Donbas and Crimea now.
Much more important are the efforts being made to severely restrict [the next] American Republican President’s choice of maneuver. [In the US] they are not thinking about Putin, but about more important things. Falling oil prices will kill shale production, i.e. increase the pressure of the US administration from financial problems. Not for nothing was a bill blocked, which would allow oil exports from the United States. As a result oil in the US is cheaper than on the world market.
In this struggle, nobody cares about the Russian budget and who is in power in the Kremlin. The Chinese introduced a worldwide system of settlements in the yuan, it will go into operation this year, and in the future, even before the next US elections, it will be extremely effective.
As for the Kremlinites, they have been cut off from the possibility to surrender in favor of the USA by the notorious sanctions lists. Guys, remember that once you’re in the sanctions lists, then it would be difficult for the United States to deny Europe’s modest request to deliver you to the Hague Tribunal. Therefore, surrender when you are asked, and do not surrender when you are not. International corporations have no desire to fall under the full control of the US intelligence services and the gang that controls them.
In short, the chips have already fallen, the deck of cards is rigged. Even Snowden is no longer needed in Moscow, and it’s a serious sign.
Of course, if war is to be, then it will be a tough one, with the use of more advanced weapons and beyond the current arrangements. But the sanctions lists will play the role of barrier detachments, they will not allow the Kremlinites to retreat, and will fill their hearts with courage and determination. We have already seen the impact of the list’s victorious influence – they were forced to win at the airport and Debaltsevo, had to let Putin overcome that flu and not carry him to the cemetery.
In short, after the fists waving in the Donbas the conflict will have to be frozen until Republicans take over in the US. And, in general, Brzezinski and Kissinger together with Obama overdid it. They purchased the rights over the Russian Federation from other gangs, but in the end they created a configuration they don’t need: European and Chinese money against the money of the US and Japan. Given the fact that inside the US there is a squabble between these money teams and the monopolies who remember whose money they exist on, the squabble over Ukraine looks more like a fight in a brothel than one in a noble bank office. There is much more squealing and blood, but there is neither gravitas, nor exclusivity.