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Comments 29

Uber-loser Poroshenko goes “full Saakashvili”

by Saker, November 30, 2018, via the Unz Review

Petro Poroshenko is in deep trouble. His ratings have been in the single-digit range in spite of a vast propaganda effort, and his latest attempt to create a salvific crisis involving the usual “Russian aggression” has not only failed but appears to be backfiring.

It is now becoming abundantly clear that the Ukronazi provocation was not only breathtakingly stupid and irresponsible, but also breathtakingly poorly planned and executed. The documents seized by the FSB on the Ukrainian ships show that the Ukrainian captains were given the order to “covertly” sneak under the Kerch bridge. I have no idea what the Ukronazi junta leaders were thinking, maybe they were drunk or terrified to tell Poroshenko that this was a suicidal mission (most likely he was too drunk to care anyway), but the fact that they could even imagine that three old boats could somehow sneak around the Crimean Peninsula and then covertly pass under the Kerch bridge is just amazing (as is the fact that the crews failed to destroy this damning evidence!). One of the most heavily monitored sections of our planet, right next to a war zone, which has been the object of innumerable threats, and yet they thought that they could somehow avoid being detected and intercepted. Wow, just wow!

As for the crews of these three tiny ships, they all owe their lives to the FSB Coastguard officers who could have merely blown all three ships away in seconds, but who clearly did their utmost to avoid killing any of the Ukrainians. Only after many hours of absolutely ridiculous slow speed maneuvering (if you speak Russian, you can listen to the entire radio exchange between the two sides right here), did the Russians eventually fire a few shots and ram the Ukrainian tug.  Frankly, these Coastguard officers deserve some kind of humanitarian award.

[Sidebar: (Soviet and now) Russian Border Guards should in no case be assumed to be some kind of Russian version of the sort of border guards you see in the West. The truth is that the Russian border guards are an elite force whose level of training can be compared with the famous Airborne Forces. Their role is not only to check visas and look for contraband, but also to be a real fighting force which, in case of war, would be tasked with resisting the enemy until the regular armed forces take over. They are subordinated to the FSB (in the past to the KGB) because they do conduct intelligence operations and because they are a key element in the Russian counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency capabilities. This is why such elite special forces as the KGB Vympel Spetsnaz unit so often recruited border guards. A good friend of mine who used to be a Vympel commander with the rank of Colonel told me how in Afghanistan they recruited as many border guards as paratroopers because in his opinion “they were at least as tough and disciplined” as the airborne soldiers. The Russian border guards are also equipped with modern and powerful weapons and can conduct sub-unit level combat operations. The Ukrainian officers must have known this, and thus must have realized that regardless of the number of weapons they had onboard (quite a lot, actually, see here), they had no chance whatsoever to prevail. Besides, the Ukrainian ships are tiny and old while the Russian border guards could count on Black Sea Fleet and Aerospace and Ground Forces support – hence the Ka-52s and Su-25’s scrambled to meet the Ukrainian reinforcements coming from Odessa. Frankly, I don’t think that even a full US Marine Expeditionary Unit could cross the Kerch Strait, let alone the Ukrainians 🙂 the geography just favors the defending side too much]

There is a broad consensus in both Russia and the Ukraine that the primary goal of Poroshenko was to create a pretext to introduce martial law and cancel the elections. Once introduced, such a martial law can easily be prolonged for as long as needed; see what the French did. He planned to introduce martial law over the entire Nazi-occupied Ukraine, and then prolong it for as long as needed; enough to cancel the elections and then harshly deal with any protests. The plan completely failed.

First, all the opposition parties immediately understood what this was all about, and they all vehemently protested.  When the text came to a vote in the Rada, it was massively watered-down and, as a result, the martial law will only be introduced for one month and only in the following regions of the Ukraine:

Ukraine martial law
Martial law areas marked in red (Note: this is a *Ukie* map, *they* put Crimea in blue, not me!)

This is bad, very bad news for Petro.

First, these areas are where the regime suspects the locals of pro-Russian sympathies (they are right, by the way).  But the risk for Petro does not come at all from the pro-Russian folks; the real danger for him comes from the various nationalist legal opposition movements who have their power base in the blue areas which will not be covered by this law.

Second, since the law was introduced for only one month and since it includes an obligation not to cancel the upcoming elections, it will be hard for Petro to crack down on the propaganda capabilities of his opponents (lead by Yulia Timoshenko).

Third, Petro probably hoped that the Russians would simply use a few missiles or blow the Ukrainian three ship armada into smithereens. Alas, the evil Moskals did nothing of the sort, and they captured all three vessels and their crews. So as panic-generating incidents go, this one was a terrible flop. In fact, the Russians are now using these ships and crews for their own propaganda, which ridicules Petro and (correctly) states that the regime in Kiev sent these sailors to certain death in total, abject indifference. None of that will increase Poroshenko’s ratings…

Fourth, it appears that Poroshenko is really going “full-Saakashvili” and might even become the Empire’s worst Uber-loser which, by the way, can get him into real trouble with his bosses in Washington and Langley (who ditched Saakashvili when he proved to be a worthless loser). Frankly, the Empire would be much better off with Timoshenko in charge rather than this Yeltsin-like alcoholic imbecile.

So the big question #1 is: is there a viable alternative to Poroshenko for the Empire?

To answer that, we first need to answer another basic question: is there a public, official, opposition in Nazi-controlled Ukraine or not?

The answer is: both yes and no.

-438x1024

Latest EuroUkros rating according to a Ukrainian source

First, no, not in the sense of some more or less decent, real, opposition.

But yes, in the sense that the junta which seized power [in 2014] is composed of many different factions, including oligarch/mobsters à la Kolomoskii, neo-Nazis à la Farion, bona fide Nazis à la Tiagnibok and assorted nutcases like Liashko.  There is also Yulia Timoshenko, a very sharp and therefore potentially dangerous foe who has powerful backers in the USA.

Take a look at these latest ratings, and you will see that in spite of a huge “administrative resource” (Russian euphemism for abuse of government power), Petro barely makes it to 9.9% which means that his real rating must be somewhere in the 3-5% range.

And, remember, time is running out. On December 27th the martial law will be lifted (barring yet another Ukro-provocation to prove to the world that Russia has attacked the Ukraine yet again).  Well, that is the official plan.  In reality, it will most likely be prolonged with some more excuses about the mythical “Russian aggression”.

Also, consider this: if Poroshenko gets the boot, so will his criminally psychopathic thugs like Parubiy, the “bloody pastor” and war criminal Turchinov and the rest of the gang. Klimkin, since he appears to be in the CIA’s payroll, might make it out in time, but for the rest of them the risk is real and ranges from long jail sentences to being shot. Don’t expect Yulia Timoshenko to show any mercy either.

True, while these folks all hate each other, they all feed from the same two mangers: rabid Russophobia and total dependence on the Empire. And while they are united in their hatred for everything Russian, they hate each other just only a tiny little bit less (some probably even more). Think of how the SS butchered the SA, how the Stalinists purged the Party from Trotskyists or how the Democrats are trying to overthrow Trump by hook or by crook, and you will see how the factions inside the same gang always struggle for power and gun for each other.

Finally, there are many signs that at least Trump himself does not care very much about the Ukraine, albeit there are enough rabid Russophobes amongst his puppeteers to compensate for Trump’s lack of interest and alleged dislike for Poroshenko.  From  Poroshenko’s point of view, the Americans either don’t care enough or have simply lost control of the situation, a time-honored US tradition with their “sons of bitches” like Saddam, Noriega and many, many others.

By the way, various Ukrainian sources also report that both Merkel and Stoltenberg told Poroshenko that the election cannot be cancelled. Considering that Poroshenko is almost sure to lose these elections, this might indicate that Germany and NATO are ditching Petro.

Add to this that Timoshenko would be a much better agent for the Empire, and you can see why the regime is freaking out.

So the bottom line is this: no, by the standards of a normal civilized country, there is no real opposition in the Ukraine (except the powerless, destitute and terrified population of course). But, far more importantly, by the standards of Petro Poroshenko, there is a real and very dangerous opposition indeed; one which will most definitely oust him in any semi-credible elections.

The Nazi-occupied Ukraine is rapidly coming to a watershed moment. Unless the elections are stolen and the opposition crushed, the current gang in power will be ousted. If the Ukraine attacks the Donbass, this will end up with a military disaster, either at the hands of the Novorussians, or at the hands of the Russian military. If the Ukraine attacks Russia directly, or Russian forces in the Black Sea, then the Ukrainian military will simply vanish in 24-48 hours max.  But in spite of that, Poroshenko desperately needs a victory lest his status as “Saakashvili-like Uber-loser” is publicly confirmed for all to see and for the Ukrainian opposition to blame it all on his incompetence and corruption (which is his real specialty: this is also why, since he came to power, the Ukraine has become a failed state while his personal net worth has increased many times over).

Finally, the fact that Poroshenko is a sinking ship means that, far from taking any risks on his behalf, Ukrainian politicians and military commanders must ask themselves every time they take a decision who will protect them if things go south.  In fact, I bet you that there are a lot of discrete contacts between various high ranking Ukrainian officials and Yulia Timoshenko, something which the SBU probably reports to Poroshenko (or, worse, not!) and which further creates a sense of panic in him and his minions.  This sense of panic might explain why, in the official journal the text of the new law mistakenly had  60, and not 30, days.

Putin is quite correct when he says that “Kiev would get away even with eating babies“: the collective hypocrisy of the West is truly limitless.  That, however, does not mean that Poroshenko personally could get away with anything and everything.  While the Empire’s leaders have to pretend to back the Ukraine no matter what, even against basic common sense, they are probably getting mighty fed up to have to scream “white!” every time Poroshenko does something black.  Still, until the Empire puts somebody else in power, Poroshenko will remain “their son of a bitch in Kiev”.  And Poroshenko knows that, which begs the next big question:

Big question #2: could Poroshenko really start a large scale war?

“Eating  babies” is all fine and dandy, but a full-scale war with either Novorussia or Russia is a very different and far more dangerous proposition.  The Empire might not care about Ukrainian babies, but it will most definitely care about a big war in the Ukraine.  So, let’s not just look at what the Ukronazis are saying but also looking at what they are doing:

  • There is martial law in all the Ukronazi occupied areas of Novorussia.
  • All the Novorussian cities are now surrounded by military checkpoints.
  • 300 hospitals have been ordered to prepare for a massive influx of casualties by stocking up on blood, beds and meds.
  • The Ukrainian first-line reserves have now been mobilized, as have the Nazi death-squads (aka “volunteer battalions”).
  • Petro is now claiming that the Russians have tripled their forces along the Ukrainian border: “the number of tanks in the bases, which are located along our border, has tripled. The number of units relocated has increased dramatically covering the entire length of our border”; in plain English that means that the Ukronazis are probably doing exactly that – surging their numbers along the line of contact.
  • Petro also said that his intelligence agencies “have clear evidence that an attack on Ukrainian ships is just the beginning“; in plain English this means that the Ukronazis are probably doing exactly that – preparing further attacks.
  • The border with Crimea has been closed to all non-Ukrainians.
  • The Ukrainians are now asking Turkey to close the Bosporus strait (which won’t happen for two reasons: the 1936 Montreux Convention forbids this and, besides, that would be a suicidal act of war for Turkey).
  • The Ukrainian war-propaganda induced hysteria has reached new levels:  they are now showing how kids from an orphanage (!) in Mariupol are digging trenches to help the Ukrainian army for the upcoming “Russian invasion”.  See for yourself this Ukrainian the report:

The art of surprise attack is one of the most fascinating aspects of warfare (those interested in this topic should read Richard Bett’s superb study “Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning“).  One of its well established strategies is to pretend to go to war and then back down at the last moment over and over again: this wears down the opponent and lures him into complacency until one day you actually strike.  Think of it as a variation on the “crying wolf” strategy, if you like: one in which the wolf does the crying.  The Ukrainians have been doing that for years now (how many times have we all heard that a Ukrainian attack was “imminent”?).  The problem here is that this time around the war preparations are larger (and far more costly).  However, you can be certain that the Russians have also been on full alert for years and that they now permanently have more than enough forces available to deal with any Ukie attack, ranging from cross-border small arms fire to a full scale war.

So we can all hope that, once again, the Ukronazis are playing their “crying wolf” strategy only to back down at the last second.  But hope should always remain separate from expectations and to make the assumption that this time around they won’t actually attack would be extremely foolish.

There are those who say that Poroshenko is not dumb enough to start a war against Russia.  My question to them would be: do you really think that Poroshenko is smarter than, say, the various Latin Popes, Napoleon or Hitler? To me, he looks about as stupid and clueless (not to mention evil and absolutely immoral) as Saakashvili.  Now just remember what happened in 08.08.08.

The-Popes-Napoleon-Hitler-and-now-these-two-300x185First the Popes tried, then Napoleon, then Hitler and now these two geniuses…

You might wonder whether the USA would be interested in a major war in the Ukraine.  I have been saying for years now that the Neocon wet dream is to force Russia to openly intervene and, that in order to achieve this result, all the Ukronazis need to do is to seriously threaten the DNR and LNR.  Will the Novorussians be strong enough to beat back a Ukronazi attack without overt Russian intervention?  Maybe.  Probably.  But that is also not an assumption which we can make because the Novorussians have no strategic depth, which places them in the very vulnerable position to have to stop the attackers without trading space for time.  In plain English, that means that the Novorussians have to be more or less on constant alert and that their forces must be forward deployed, which is very hard to sustain over time and simply dangerous, especially against an enemy with numerically much larger forces.

Crucially, the Neocons have nothing to lose if their plan fails and the Novorussians succeed in, once again, stopping the Ukronazi forces without a Russian intervention (it’s not like the Neocons care about Ukrainian or Novorussian lives since they don’t even care about the lives of US citizens).

It might well be that Trump is personally not interested in such a war.  But, let’s face it, Trump is the worst overcooked noodle to sit in the White House (he makes Carter look like a roaring lion!).  Just hours after he declared that it was “a very good time to have the meeting” with Putin he then “changed his mind” and now has canceled the meeting.  Trump is all about narcissistic hot air, but he never delivers anything and he has bowed down to his Neocon masters on everything since he made it into the White House.  The sad truth is that Trump has become simply irrelevant, at least to the Russians (and to those who might still believe that Trump is playing some 4D chess, I would say that systematically caving in to all the demands of the Neocons (and thereby making them increasingly more influential) is hardly a chess strategy, not even a 2D one).

[Sidebar: Trumps latest zig-zags about meeting with Putin is yet another example of the glaring ignorance the current US leaders suffer from.  They simply have no idea what the function and purpose of diplomacy is.  Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, was absolutely correct when he tweeted today that “Meeting a US President is not a reward for a RUS leader. Canceling a mtg is no punishment. It is all a matter of necessity. RUS-US relationship today is solely about preventing the confrontation from turning into a collision, and escalating to war. This is all“.  But the Americans are simply too illiterate to understand that.  Besides, the Russians have long given up on any notion of being able to get anything done with this Neocon-doormat President.  He wants to meet?  Sure.  He don’t.  Who cares?  This is the sorry state to which a nuclear superpower has slouched.]

Ditto for his moronic VP who tried to scare Putin by “staring him down” with his rendition of what he hopes was a “steel glare” in Singapore.  Putin just kept smiling, of course.

Pence vs PutinI am sure that Putin was terrified

The frightening reality is that the Neocons are the most rabid Russophobes on the planet and that the clowns in the White House will do whatever the US deep state tells them to do.  Don’t count on them for decency or even minimal common sense.

Furthermore, as I have already said many times, Trump is an “expendable President” for the Neocons: should anything he does end in disaster, they will blame it all on him, and put their own trusted person in power to replace him.

For all these reasons, the answer to our question is obvious: yes, Poroshenko most definitely is capable of ordering some kind of a crazy attack, including a full scale war.

But “could” does not mean “will”, thank God!  Maybe, just like this past summer, the junta will get cold feet and back down (Putin’s threat that any attack will have most serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood is still very much valid).  In theory, the spineless Europeans (who will suffer the economic and social consequences of any major conflict) might also tell the crazies in Kiev to cool it.  But I am not holding my breath here.

So let’s hope for the best, but keep in mind that the worst is a very real possibility.

Right now the situation is extremely dangerous and will remain so for the foreseeable future.  Philosophers say that love is the greatest force in the universe, and I very much agree with that.  But the next two most powerful forces are evil and stupidity, and there is plenty of both in Kiev and Washington DC.  The incident with the “covert operation” of the “Ukrainian armada” might look funny until you recall all the wars which were stared over other such equally minor incidents.  This time around, the superb restraint of the Russian border guards prevented Kiev from getting the bloody clash it was obviously hoping for, but ask any policeman and he will tell you that it is almost impossible to prevent what is known as “suicide by cop”.  The Empire badly needs the Russian cop to (finally!) shoot, and so does the Ukronazi junta (all this propaganda, including from Russian pseudo-patriots, about Putin being weak or indecisive or even in cahoots with the Empire is a direct PSYOP product of that imperial agenda, whether those who parrot that nonsense realize it or not).

At this point in time, there is no way to predict whether the Ukronazi junta will attack for real or not.

29 Comments

  1. Philpot says

    Magnificent article. Ignore the trolls. Very insightful. Let’s hope sense does prevail. Thank you President Putin for your courage in restraint.

  2. Lina Burns says

    I have never read such stupid stuff in my life. To be honest, I could not read it. Just skimmed. What a disgrace. I hope you were paid very many roubles for such a lie

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    • Maggie says

      @Lina Burns

      Definition of Stupid:
      KNOWING THE TRUTH, SEEING THE TRUTH, BUT STILL BELIEVING THE LIES.

      Or better still refusing to even read information before forming an opinion.

  3. “You might wonder whether the USA would be interested in a major war in the Ukraine. I have been saying for years now that the Neocon wet dream is to force Russia to openly intervene and, that in order to achieve this result, all the Ukronazis need to do is to seriously threaten the DNR and LNR. Will the Novorussians be strong enough to beat back a Ukronazi attack without overt Russian intervention? Maybe. Probably.”
    I remember when NSTO were present in the area of encirclement(the Cauldron)in Debaltsevo using US Paladin artillery, the shell casings in Donetsk easily identifying them as US and the AV footage shot showed that NATO in fact, was comitting war crimes by deliberately shelling every building that could be used to shelter civilians under attack. Of course there was no war, so that makes NATO’s Crimes Against Humanity even more disgraceful. Four years have passed and none of the NATO criminals has been paraded before the ICC, so what’s to stop them doing it again? The US has positioned so many NATO units surrounding Russia with exactly the intent to start a war with Russia. If not Trump, then another Washington psycho will light the match, they have to in order to save their economy.
    I wish I had the authours confidence in predicting lunatic psychosis.

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  4. Maggie says

    This incident was cynically designed to instigate the war with Russia…
    The men and ships were ”expendable.”
    The same script was used here >>
    The Gulf of Tonkin incident also known as the USS Maddox incident, was an international confrontation that led to the United States engaging more directly in the Vietnam War.
    It involved either one or two separate confrontations involving North Vietnam and the United States in the waters of the Gulf of Tonkin.
    The original American report blamed North Vietnam for both incidents, but eventually became very controversial when it was proved that at least one, and possibly both incidents were false, and possibly deliberately so

    The outcome of these two incidents was the passage by Congress of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which granted President Lyndon B. Johnson the authority to ‘assist’ any Southeast Asian country whose government was considered to be jeopardized by “communist aggression”. The resolution served as Johnson’s legal justification for deploying U.S. conventional forces and the commencement of open warfare against North Vietnam.

    In May there was a call from the US media to blow up the bridge.
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/ukraine-should-blow-up-putins-crimea-bridge
    Same script here >>
    The MSM is owned by the Zionists, who are the Deep State… Precisely the same MO as the call for Jews to declare war on Germany in 1933… ‘Before Hitler’
    https://archive.org/stream/JewsDeclareWarOnGermany1933/JewsDeclareWarOnGermany1933_djvu.txt

    I think this world should thank God for Putin and the Russians, who have been so much in their past, l that they know exactly what matters now and that is LOVE.
    If in any doubt, go to u tube and watch what you didn’t know about Putin.
    Please share as much as possible to stop the Hydra.

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  5. Frankly Speaking says

    It doesn’t matter what we think, it only matters how our neoliberal EU, UK and US politicians react to the situation – and it’s quite clear that they’ve already deemed Ukraine to be right and Russia wrong. This is very dangerous.

    There will be more sanctions against Russia, more direct US and UK military support for Ukraine, and in 2019 they will bring Ukraine into the NATO fold, after which it will be too late for Russia to swat the Ukrainian mosquito.

    If Russia wants to avoid getting malaria and risk dying, they need to innoculate themselves now, while there is still an opportunity to do so.

  6. Petro Porosyonok keeps on rolling ’em out though – I mean his almost daily utterances about the approaching Russian invasion:

    2 Dec 2018 14:07 / Kiev
    Poroshenko: Russia intends to seize Berdyansk and Mariupol
    (source: https://rossaprimavera.ru/news/0f5fbf3e?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop)

    Russia intends to seize Berdyansk and Mariupol, Petro Poroshenko has said during an interview with German media holding company “Funke Media Group”, the official site of the President of the Ukraine announced on 2 December

    Without giving any evidence for what he said, Poroshenko stated that the incident in the Kerch Strait confirmed Russian commitment to its plan for expansion and its occupation of the Ukraine. “Moscow is trying to achieve a land corridor from the occupied Donbass to the occupied Crimea by capturing Mariupol and Berdyansk. If some politicians do not cease flirting and dancing with Putin, the threat of an increase in the scale of Russian aggression should not be excluded”, Poroshenko said.

    During the interview, the President of the Ukraine expressed an idea with which many would agree: “The basic fact of the matter is that it is in the Ukraine where the future of the free world is now being determined”.

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    • Moscow Exile says

      And there was this the other day of the lying toe-rag:

      “In general, around the Ukraine, along the border … there are ground forces amounting to more than 80 thousand troops in total, about 1.4 thousand artillery systems together with rocket artillery, 900 tanks, 2.3 thousand armoured combat vehicles, more than 500 aircraft and 300 helicopters” — Porky, announcing the stiffening up of the Russian military presence along the Uraine frontier.

      source: https://ria.ru/world/20181201/1536954549.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

      And he added that in the Black, Sea, the Sea of Azov, and the Mediterranean Sea, 80 Russian ships and 8 submarines were operating.

      Poroshenko did not specify where he got this information.

      He also expressed the view that Russian “aggression” is directed not only towards the Ukraine, but towards the whole world.

      source: https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2018/12/01/12359791.shtml?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

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      • Jo says

        Info from the cia unit in very close proximity to Rada……..”highly likely” to be accurate?

  7. Baron says

    Poroshenko is fully under the Deep State control, but the man’s capable acting independently for self-preservation. He knows he cannot win next March, he knows his fate will not be pleasant when the new management comes in, he can either flee, or risk it, attack Russia knowing the Western Deep State Russophobes cannot but back him, he may even bet on asking NATO to get directly involved, NATO obliging him. That may be be the biggest headache for Putin, what does he do? Taking over Ukraine would make the West go mad, turning him and Russia into a permanent pariah.

    An interesting season of good will indeed with sparkles not just on the Christmas trees?

    • Margaret Phelan says

      Poroshenko is a dead man walking.
      He’s bungled this job and has the same fate awaiting him that Saddam and Gadaffi had.

  8. Perhaps this is Petro’s tie chewing moment?

    Petro and Saarkash once friends now sworn enemies. We were told Petro was a revelation bring an end to corruption in Ukraine – the same was once said of Saarkash. Both tools of the Great American Demonocracy Project – now sadly just, you guessed it, tools.

    As much as the Graun tries to “tool up” its stories about Petro and his band of touchy feely Nazis of the Azov and Pravi Sector they some how fail to realise that to beautify a pig you first have to look at yourself. But the Graun’s knitted cardie navel gazing somehow falls short of even this honest test.

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  9. I had not seen the Mike Pence stare pic before and it amused me no end. So I dug out the video the still is taken from and it was equally amusing. Both Bolton and Pence, I am no body language expert I admit, were excited to meet Putin and I get the impression the intensity on Pences face was nothing more than concentration. I have a little hearing problem and in crowds of talking people I can pull some pretty weird faces trying to hear what someone is saying over the din. Pence and Bolton are still tossers of course. But the pic is meaningless.
    So far it appears to me that the Kerch Strait incident is as the article states an embarrassing miscalculation on Ukraine’s part. As it happened it seemed like a big story. And as far as Ukraine goes we all wait in trepidation for the match that lights the fuse. This is not it. And I doubt it will come in Poroshenkos time.

  10. JudyJ says

    Reading this article has got me thinking about the ‘detained Ukrainian military personnel’ involved in the Kerch incident. Perhaps, now that they realise they were expendable pawns to Poroshenko and also that he might be unhappy with the way they have handled their instructions, they have themselves given indications to the Russians that they are in no hurry to return to Ukraine and might even wish to defect to Russia for their own security.

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    • summitflyer says

      I was thinking likewise . By returning to home base it will be just more of the same and you can bet that they will be taken care of very well where they are now.

    • John A says

      Yes, I think CM is worried about his pension. He recently lauded Soros as a decent guy who once bought him a pizza. In his first defence of the Kersh Strait incident, his opinion was clearly a minority view among commentators. So he kept copying and pasting the same crap about ‘innocent ship’ and right of free passage, despite numerous postings explaining the actual maritime laws that apply. His latest post basically accuses everyone who disagrees with him as basically being thick and far less intellegent than himself and total Putin groupies. One step short of calling them deplorarables, in fact. Not a good look!

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      • JudyJ says

        “One step short of calling them deplorables, in fact”.

        Indeed. It struck me that this was not a particularly astute move when he is also asking for contributions to help support his website. When you have a website which, by its nature, appears to actively invite opinion and debate you should be prepared to accept with good grace counter opinion and, indeed, what he perceives as inferior intellect, much as it might offend the ego. Sadly, I think CM has let himself down somewhat by his ‘colourful’ language and insults directed at some contributors.

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      • Stygg says

        One of several posts by him lately that have caused me to raise an eyebrow.

    • DunGroanin says

      You may find CM is actually defending the rule of International Law on the seas.

      To stop this being escalated to the Gulf, Bosphorus, English Channel and many such straits around the world.

      He is persistently clear about it in the btl comments.

      These boats are military not some commercial of private shipping manned by privateers but military personnel – the Law is clear they can not be held and the boats cannot be confiscated. Unless a state of war exists or is declared.

      Imagine if they were US or Royal Navy boats and crew – how would we react?

      But there is no need to just imagine – how about some examples:

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/01/13/iran-sends-mixed-message-on-quick-release-of-u-s-navy-crews/?utm_term=.ae1bb779dac5

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Iranian_arrest_of_Royal_Navy_personnel

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Iranian_seizure_of_Royal_Navy_personnel

      Not exactly a new scenario is it?

      I expect the Ukrainians will be released as a xmas present. Maybe even after the ‘delayed’ summit at the WhiteHouse with Putin. I think writting off Trump as a lame duck is a bit premature, especially after the failure of the ‘opposition’to gain both Houses, the potus is not going to be in re-election mode for a few months yet. What better way to kick it off then with a renewed peace deal with Russia, a calmed Rocket Man in Korea and end of isis in the ME? Add a deal with China and further improvement in living standards at home – he would be nailed on to be re-elected! Even if the GOP decided to run an alternative, he could do it as an independent. A nail in the coffin of the pretend two party system.

      • SPb-Stan says

        DunGroanin You seem to think international law applies to this sea. By treaty it is an inland waterway with rights restricted to the two countries involved. A procedure has been in place since 1994 where all ships wishing to enter must get permission from both countries. There were Ukraine navy ships which had just passed under the bridge and docked in Mariupol without incident like the thousands of times before, just report ID of the ship, destination and cargo. It is not a marine navigable sea, with a maximum depth of 7 meter only fishing boats, and coastal defense boats can safely use the sea, mostly fishing boats from both countries.
        The only difference between this case and the dozens of passages a day for years was the refusal to identify themselves and trying to run the border. Imagine what welcome a Russian navy ship would receive sailing to the Great Lakes.
        Ukraine and CM are clearing delusional in this case and in the history of Ukraine, all acts by this regime are delusional.
        I suspect it is more involved than just Porky being Porky. There have already been notices of the US intending to build a navy base or two on that coast which would be in violation of the treaty signed long ago so to cancel that agreement by some trumped up incident could mean the US trying to take over that inland sea. Porky already announced he was going to cancel all agreements and contracts with Russia over this incident and that would be enough to possibly get US election meddling to award the presidency again to the current regime. As it is, the US is building one of the largest military ports in the world near Odessa Ukraine, a strong pro Russia region. The intent is no secret for the US to stake its claim for control of the Black Sea, as an area of American interests as they have done in the arctic and every place on earth where ships might pass through. Having a substantial part of the US navy trapped in the Black Sea at the mercy of hypersonic cruise missiles does not sound very wise but it is the only sea where it does not control ship traffic.

    • summitflyer says

      I do believe that the determination of rights , in the article you refer to ,did not take into consideration the following facts as stated by the Russian Federation on the Saker article :

      “Despite all the measures taken by the Russian side, the ships of the Ukrainian Navy were brought into full combat readiness: artillery installations were uncovered, the trunks of artillery installations were raised to an angle of 45 degrees and directed towards the ships and boats of the Russian Federation (in violation of article 19 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982, and paragraph 2 of article 11 of FL-155 of July 31, 1998 ”

      This sheds light on whether the Russian federation acted legally or not ,and of course they did.

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    • Makropulos says

      The initial Craig Murray post on the Azov incident seemed to me to signal a noticeable defensiveness. It ends:

      “I expect the usual howls of protest from people for whom the application of impartial international law is anathema, who believe you must be on the side of the “goodies” against the “baddies”. I am aware that rationality and impartiality are not much valued in political discourse nowadays. I shall however stick to them with stoic resolve.”

      How provocatively “noble” of him!

  11. Never forget that this is Obama’s mess !

    “Saint Obama” as the MSM have canonised him was a War Criminal par excellence the like of which the World has not seen since Truman who dropped 2 nukes on Japan to stop the USSR taking the Japanese surrender after Stalin defeated Japan’s Million Man Army in Manchuria …………Truth cannot die.

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  12. Fair dinkum says

    “America needs an enema, America needs an enema !!”
    “Don’t you mean ENEMY?”
    (Sound of cogs turning).
    “Yeah, that’s it _ _ _ _ an enemy”
    “I think”

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  13. Nick G. says

    Great article highlighting the suicidal and darkly tragic stupidity of Petro et al. Sadly if you ask 99% of people in ‘the street’ they’ll still wave crucifixes at you if you mention ANY sympathy for Russia or even prize open the merest crack in the master narrative.

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