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Predicting 2025: The Bird Flu out the window

Bird Flu was all set to be "the next pandemic" but has it missed the window?

Kit Knightly

Our third prediction for 2025 isn’t exactly a crazy left-field pick: Bird Flu. It’s going to happen. The question is when, and how much.

The second half of 2024 was full of dire warnings that H5N1 was “just one mutation away” from human-to-human transmission or articles bemoaning how little we learned from “Covid” and how unprepared we are.

It very much felt like, after over two years of talking it up as the next big disease, Bird Flu was coming to a head.

Then, just yesterday the press reported “the first official bird flu death”, the patient was over 65 with “other pre-existing health conditions” (sound familiar?).

Does that mean we’re about to get the “next pandemic” they’ve been talking about for so long?

Maybe, maybe not. It’s noteworthy that, despite the reported death, the hysteria still seems low-grade.

There’s no real commitment to the story. The WHO is still describing H5N1 as “very, very low risk” to humans. This is obviously true, but the truth only ever appears in WHO press releases by coincidence.

It’s starting to feel like “Bird Flu” might have missed its window. They think they may have fizzled all the H5N1 momentum to the point that letting it die is the best option.

That means a change in narrative architecture. A redirect is required. Instead of Bird Flu being “the next pandemic”, it may be about to become a “near-miss pandemic”, perhaps one that is artfully avoided by advancements in vaccine technology or thorough screening. Well done us.

It could be that two years of hype has smothered the bird flu brand in the cradle (nest?), so the “next pandemic” will actually be some surprise newcomer – like whatever made-up nonsense is allegedly hitting China right now.

…or maybe the black death.

Or maybe I’m wrong, this is the calm before the storm, and the Bird Flu waves are about to break on the shores of 2025.

Whatever direction it ends up taking, 2025 will be the climax of the Bird Flu narrative. If it hasn’t become a full-blown thing by March, it likely never will.

WILDCARD PREDICTION: Bird Flu or not, 2025 will see the first “100-day vaccine”, probably a nasal spray combi-vaccine for flu & something else. Its reported success may be credited with “avoiding a second Covid” or “saving us from another lockdown”.

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